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It’s all over the news in Argentina, now that Lady Preska has unsealed the private information.
Can anyone estimate the current value of the state owned portion of YPF shares. I’m thinking Burford have played a very clever move here.
A bit of tangent but I see Argentina have made official their desire to join NATO. Significant IMO to ourselves as a clear sign that they wish to align with the West and not China, Russia etc.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_224873.htm
Just read Seb's tweet regarding YPF, very interesting
BUR going after the YPF shares is going to give them the heebie-jeebies, especially as Preska said they could be used as collateral to prevent enforcement.
Thanks again Mr Marroc .. more twist & turns in this story than the Singapore Grad Prix
Getting smaller but more efficient?
https://latinfinance.com/daily-brief/2024/04/17/ypf-asset-sale-stirs-buyer-interest/
One last point on the Petersen companies' award: I am not aware, since it is private information, of the details of the original agreement between Burford and Petersen. The Spanish companies have creditors waiting to get paid once this proceeding is over. For instance, we know that Repsol holds a EUR 1.3 billion credit with the Petersens. So, it could be the case that Burford is contractually obligated to settle this case as a whole and cannot request Judge Preska to separate de award pending an investigation by the Argentine Congress.
Don't underestimate politics in Argentina. YPF is of a national interest and has always been a topic of corruption and mismanagement. Congress will not sign a check to judgment creditors until they fully know who will benefit. Offering to freeze Petersens' award is a way out, but, again, I am fully unaware if Burford can even propose this.
BBH that’s the billion dollar question.. estimates vary from the award adding £10+per share to £20+per share and some say higher… I try to think of it as icing on the cake.. my investment is based upon the business as a whole not just YPF and I expect the SP to be c£40-£60 in 2-3years giving a market of £9bn to £13bn. The current conservative NAV is c£8bn.
Thank you Mr Marroc. Interesting point regarding beneficiaries of Peterson’s award! Basically 12 months from now and this should be settled once a for all but it could be sooner. I can live with that..
I am interested to know the views of our viewers on this board.
What is our share price likely to be when we actually have a settlement agreement approved and payments coming through ?
This is of course what we are all waiting for !
I presume this may well be in another 12 months - 18 months time.
I anticipate the agreement unfolding in two stages: first, the establishment of the economic framework, and then its approval by Congress. Believe it or not, the initial phase appears relatively straightforward. Congress is the problem.
Regarding timing, I predict that the government and Burford may finalize the agreement's structure within this year, but congressional involvement will likely await the appellate court's decision.
Navigating a clear path forward is challenging, given the various potential outcomes. However, I remain convinced that Burford will need to propose freezing the 30% economic entitlement of the Petersen companies in an ESCROW account until Argentina completes an investigation into its ownership, that has not even started or proposed. Congress will most likely want to know if politicians are behind Petersen.
Lastly, keep an eye out for updates. Expect news to emerge shortly.
Good evening Mr Marroc
Would it surprise you and your team if Mr Milei and his team agreed a deal with Burford in the coming weeks or months?
Aaaaa 50 % gain in a day, and a missed it... PLCE...
“In February, the IMF warned Argentina that it needs to address legal issues related to recent court rulings if it wants to regain access to international credit.”
If thats the main reason besides other general market mood, then thanks for them really and buy the BUR.
Anyone remember the holding thresholds you need to report at on AIM. Are there any once under 5%? Also how many days do you have to report crossing of these threshold's?
And are there any threshold reporting on US market.
Thank you Mithaq.
They wouldn’t dare would they ?
You’d have to say they’ve got balls if they did
So PLCE SP fell c50% in the last week on news of potential litigation and Mithaq had a margin call … Irony would be that Burford are funding the case..
So PLCE SP fell c50% in the last on news of potential litigation and Mithaq had a margin call … Irony would be that Burford are funding the case..
Interesting Moomb - what’s your thinking about that ?
There’s approx 210 million shares so I think the dilution is only about 0.26% so shouldn’t make much of a difference.
Anyone got any idea or predictions how the 533k shares being placed for sale tomorrow will affect the share price ??? Obviously I wouldn’t mind them head south for a day. Sorry
Spot on BW you called that one right and I certainly did not ! Great to know the reason though and very clever of them to suggest they would be buying back also. Can’t have been detrimental to the sp can it 👏