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Better to ask . what's the buy case for BT
Stop wimping out Abject, put your money where your mouth is. You made a statement suggesting you know of other stocks that'll outperform BT, I'm asking what they are? You never know you might get lucky š
I've picked a few bits out of the OFCOM 2017 evidence support document, summarising the number of lines that might be referred to in the case. Here's a link to a short two page document I've put together:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1k5fAQi6C5GXK4dxdUaiDt0UgsyBAJqZPKZzTaGsoMSU/edit?usp=sharing
Going off the Voice only chart, BT had approximately 1.5 million Voice only lines around Oct 2015 and approximately 1 Million Voice only lines by Q1 2017, which may have decreased further by Apr 2018. The voice only part of the claim is between Oct 2015 and Apr 2018.
Split-Purchaser is subdivided between Split-Service and Split-Supply, if I'm understanding it correctly, with Split-Service meaning BT provide a Voice only telephone line and Broadband separately; Split-Supply would most likely be a BT Telephone line and the customer receiving Broadband from a different supplier. The Split-Purchaser part of the claim has a much wider window, from Oct 2015 to Dec 2023. I find the Split-Purchaser part of the claim a bit perplexing, since a customer who has a BT line and Broadband with say Virgin Media are Voice only as far as BT are concerned, and I can understand that happening if someone wanted to use VM's faster Broadband and keep BT for Voice; I can't think of any reason why someone would have BT Voice and say TalkTalk Broadband, that'd make absolutely no sense to me, maybe someone can explain why someone might do such a thing.
Fleccy we canāt condense a list to 3 or 4 stocks. A portfolio should include more.
We also should not compare stocks on a 12 month basis.
You of all people know, as you have stressed, that a 12 month short term time frame is no basis on which to compare stocks.
Fleccy, I agree with you on many points, but to show unwavering bias toward Bt stock, as you are doing, is foolhardy.
You Convey to me two characteristics
1. An attachment to this stock
2. A politically motivated economical and aggressive stance towards others opposing stock views. Even with the knowledge I have a similar holding to you.
To conclude, mentioning 12 month competing stocks to you would be futile and egregious judgement
Nice idea fleccy , and hopefully a small side bet as well , game on
Just make it your top 3 or 4 choices so that it doesn't get too messy on the chart.
Abject post your list of Stocks that'll outperform BT over the next year, and I'll make a chart to compare the daily close prices over the next 12 months.
"If you havenāt already invested in Bt , my view is invest elsewhere with a long term trajectory in mind. Other well known ftse stocks will perform better and higher more reliable return"
Abject you should produce a list of the well known FTSE stocks that will perform better and higher more reliable return. If you start a thread and list the stocks I will create a spreadsheet on Google sheets and post a link so we can measure the performance against BT over the next 12 Months.
Seems like a good time to top up or trade under 1.13p with all those dividends getting reinvested soon ,payday 2nd Feb...atb
IP3LY, thanks for your endorsement
The only thing Fleccy has confirmed for me , is polarising circumstances to degenerate mandy.
Fleccy isnāt as old, and wants to hand his shares to youth.
Mandy is old and wants to realise his investment now.
Iām in my 30s and want an unbiased highly capitalists view return; as much as I can as soon as I can.
Neither Mandy or Fleccys views align with mine.
If you havenāt already invested in Bt , my view is invest elsewhere with a long term trajectory in mind. Other well known ftse stocks will perform better and higher more reliable return.
If you are invested, be prepared to wait and know that current SP is a gift, but donāt overload where there are other better stocks in a depressed market.
"Given BT net debt continues to increase and as importantly the cost of servicing that debt is increasing -
a dividend cut makes sense."
To be honest FAT, the dividend is only around Ā£751 Million a year, so a 30% cut only comes to around a Ā£225 Million saving on the balance sheet, the most significant entries on the balance sheet are "Cash available for investment and distribution" (FY23 Ā£6.635 Billion) and "Cash capital expenditure" (FY23 -Ā£5.307 Billion). If they were to cancel the whole dividend it could be used to cover either the yearly lease liability cost, or the interest on the debt, but not both since each of those are in the same region as the yearly dividend.
I don't see the Net Debt as an issue, even though media commentators hype it up, so BT could easily afford to increase Net Financial Debt if they can negotiate a good interest rate, and look at paying it back when capex falls. BT aren't in the same position as Rolls Royce were during Covid, where Rolls Royce increased the shares in issue by over 4 times and had to increase Bond debt with the condition they stopped the dividends. How Rolls Royce are currently worth more than twice BT's market cap is beyond me, I just put it down to market games, maybe they succeeded in shaking out a critical mass of retail and decided it was time to pump the stock?
IP3LY thanks for your concern with reference to my age. I'm only just 62, I neither drink alcohol or smoke and I'm a total gym junkie who trains hard three times a week; On the days in between gym I do lots of countryside walks. Hopefully I have many more years of weight training and walking ahead of me, at least that's the plan, but in the event of my early demise I have a wife, children and Grandchildren who will still benefit from the investments.
If the dividends are maintained across all our stocks, held by me and my wife, then we're on target for over Ā£27,000 tax free in dividends in the Apr 2024 to Apr 2025 tax year, so investing in dividend stocks does give some flexibility while dividends are maintained.
BT's transformation should see a dramatic drop in capex from the end of 2026 onwards, so I expect BT will start seeing significant increases in bottom line Net Profit by then, and that'll still be before I'm old enough to draw my state pension, go figure.
Does that answer your questions?
Well, right now the Equity on the books at H1 was Ā£13.6 billion and if you buy shares today you are paying for a MCAP of only Ā£11.27 billion.... so..in theory ...you are not paying for any earnings on the assets, at all
I can look forward to the conversations at the pub now with people saying āGuess what, BT have had to refund me Ā£400 for something that happened years ago, overcharging or something. I didnāt know anything about itā¦HaHa.ā
The next thing to hit BT / EE will be fines for overcharging on mobile phone contracts.
Iād love a bid to come in for BT but with it being such a political football and an easy target for all these blood sucking lawyers who would want to buy such a business?
Obvs this is guesswork only, however my guess is yes,
a 30% cut or there abouts. This gives more leeway for increases down the line.
Given BT net debt continues to increase and as importantly the cost of servicing that debt is increasing -
a dividend cut makes sense.
Haha no worries Mandysrevenge, as I thought your response has no context to what I wrote haha ;P
Well as the saying goes - āMoney does not have any owners just spendersā.
To me itās just a tool - to get sh it done to help and build and enjoy doing some nice things in the process and pass āitā and asset alongā¦..Simples ^__^
But that's part of the business poker, you have to make enough profit to exceed the 5% (roughly) on savings you could get for doing absolutely nothing. If you don't achieve that, then you're not really making a profit at all. And even if you do achieve that, inflation could be higher. I get all of that. But, my point is that it really does matter what the SP does as this is where you have the opportunity to make a profit, b/e, make a loss or sit on a share that is dropping and not crystalise the loss and kid yourself into believing it's not a loss until it's crystalised. It is a loss, a virtual colleague once used the expression 'don't sit on sh it', which I liked. It's a loss because you have less money, because you could have been increasing your principal in a different market, because the money is not available for your day to day activities, because your down and inflation is making you 'downer'. That loss could theoretically get larger if the SP drops further (if BT does suffer a large fine then that is much more likely) if we're not in a 'soft-landing' as many believe we have achieved (I don't for the record), then we're likely riding the last big wave to the beach before the tide goes out and that will also likley reduce the BT SP.
@Mandyrevenge:
This would be a very caring and suprising approach to say the least for CWU indeed to lookout for those who most likely pay or contribute to their salaries.
Especially, as several contacts I have within the firm - say they rarely hear from CWU, and just tell them whenever something is done - but never consulted or updated on the process of an action or caseā¦.which seems ridiculous to me and make me wonder what they actually do - granted they are probably CWUās for other firms as wellā¦.although this should be no excuse.
I will ask contacts if they hear anything from CWU or if they are notified of what is happening within BT (if they do not already know from the media)
" You're here for one reason only, to make a profit."
yes, but you can make a Ā£1,000 profit over a 3 year period due to market downturns but then find its purchasing power is , in reality ..... meaning that it is ...a loss
I have to say - this has been an entertaining read of debating views on here from past 2-3 hour span, and some excellent points and callouts from all parties here.
@Fleccy : Are all your shares you have on Voda/Lloyds/BT - do you have anyone or people ie. Frieds and Family you can transfer them to if need be in times of emergency?
As I saw in one of Mandysrevenge (whether true or not) if you are over 60 and hopefully in very good health still - what will you do if BT does not come to fruition in the timescale you have set? Also what figure is an exit point for you? Or do you plan to never to sell? - Which if is the case, would you transfer your shares to your beneficiary(ies) well in advance?
Apologies for direct and perhaps personal questions on such a board - just wanting to know what a person does past the age of 60 (again if you are) when dealing with stocks and shares at the 3rd quarter of life (assuming we all reach to 100 that is :D).
TIA.
@AbjectPerformer : āBt will use behind the scenes influence in Whitehallā
- Indeed they will - just hope ātheyā are as persuasive enough to make the win, or at least cut a good deal. Damage limitations.
ābut even threatening accelerated 55,000 cuts to half the Ā£1.2bn, would still send us below a quid a shareā
- sad to say I think that too - as further restricting and limiting resources inside the firm to complete essential rollout plans etc. is not good. The people who really suffer - are those left behind to pick up the pieces and continue firefighting what seems like a ever burning fire within the firm.
Letās hope we all wrong, and BT can get good news for once.
Stupmy thank you for your message .
Key point you make relating to Fleccy response
āWhat youāre saying makes everything else you say seem doubtfulā
In my words. Overly biased.
I personally hope Fleccy corrects this, because heās generally a rational guy. But I want to see him correct some irrational biases. Somewhat disappointing
Fleccy, it's not irrelevant, the better your entry price the better your profit should the SP increase. When you say it's irrelevant, that's nonsense, what you're actually saying is that you've invested and can't do anything about it or don't know how to enter at better levels or trade around it to improve your average entry or something releated. It really is important.
It's fine having a strong belief that the company will turn itself around and generate profits for shareholders in the future, but what you're actually saying makes everything else you say seem a doubtful. You're here for one reason only, to make a profit.
Fleccy
āthe long term will be determined by BT's success in its transformation and cost cutting strategyā
You are minimising immediate business impacts as affecting in year balance sheet.
Iām not mandy, but I must correct you my friend.
These are not short term impacts. They are medium term, at least. If they come to fruition.
Be realistic and not blinkered.