Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Open up your wallet and let BPC step inside
Rest your weary head and let your heart decide
It's so easy when you know the rules
It's so easy all you have to do
Is fall in love
Play the game
Everybody play the game of love
Ooh yeah
I refuse to butcher this one quite so much...
but it ties my Queen bit to my monopoly post.
This was discussed at the AGM this year & we were told that membership includes clean up insurance in the event of a spill - i would have thought there is some form of excess or minimum claim, but this wasn't discussed in detail.
PS - as a member of the Queen Fan Club, i applaud your efforts
Right now, WE are the smart money.
The majors must be quite risk-averse, and The Bahamas is after all, technically a frontier. Albeit a peaceful, stable frontier with good governance.
I don’t understand why we are not drilling by now.
Jim, yes the depositional geology is different from Macondo, in that the layers of sediment have been laid down very slowly over millions of year and there is no high pressure gas trapped. The Macondo environment had a deposition that was laid down very quickly in geological terms, which trapped a lot of gas, so not allowing time for it to escape, thus creating extremely high temperatures and pressures which made drilling a lot more risky.
It's clear the carbonate rock BPC has is vuggy and porous and can hold a lot of oil which will flow. The main risks are charge and seal. Migration pathways from the source and faults that extend into the folds allow the charge, and the lack of oil seeps over the structures compared to elsewhere indicate the seal is in tact, so the main doubt is is there enough charge to fill the structures. Surrounding oil wells with live oil and signs of migrated oil due to failed seals and invalid traps would suggest plenty of oil has been generated.
Apparently BP bought some of the suspect parts on Macondo, from Poundland - lessons learned! ;)
In seriousness, it's been a long road drafting up the requisite legislation and getting it passed through the various governmental stages. All scenarios will have been covered and protocols adhered to, for the Company to have brought us to where we are.
Well positioned now, once all the requisite funding is signed off and we can finally get down to it.
In the context of accidents and oil spills it needs to be remembered that the Bahamas geology is not the same as that at Macondo.
The Macondo prospect is a HPHT (High Pressure High Temperature) reservoir that was drilled in the Miocene epoch some 4000 to 4500m below the sea bed.
BPC are targeting reservoirs and structures up to a terminal depth of approximately 2400m. These are not HPHT conditions and any discovery is likely to require artificial lift from the well. This basically means the well will not flow freely of its own accord like that at Macondo.
The risks and and any resultant hazard are vastly reduced.
Hi P_I
The other point to mention is BPC have also joined The Oil Spill Group.
Not an expert in what that covers except that they have experts at the ready.
How that works financially I need to investigate.
Do they pay a premium which covers expenses only or is there an element of spillage insurance cover?
GL
Very likely something that's already been discussed between Potter and the GoB and given the frameworks already in place from previous legislative initiatives that caused delays in the past. Can't see them not having had such 'discussions' to underpin their confidence now going forward with plans to drill.
Atb
DP, whilst I will follow suit and suggest you watch the interview with Eytan in terms of fund raise gossip I will also second your concern in terms of the government in the Bahamas allowing BPC to go it alone without a major.
With the major there is a contingency fund in place should things go wrong, the question I would have is how much of this is through self insurance and how much is through institutional insurance - a market that although costly would be open to BPC with the drill partners.
It is a good point and worth further thought
EYTAN (damn spellcheck!)- Although would be :nice to have Ethan Hunt working for us as well!
DPeurope:
There is no evidence that BPC “shopped around” recently. Indeed in the Proactive interview Ethan said someone started a rumour who was short.
Even if they had shopped,the rumours were circa 1p which would’ve been nonsense anyway when the most recent raise was at 1.6p.
GL
DP, there’s no such thing as a dead cert on AIM but if you believe the 3D seismics, competent persons reports and other data, as well as the expertise of current and previous management, including the sadly missed Alan Burns, you would conclude that oil is present in commercial quantities. This is defined as 150-200m barrels whereas the upper limits of estimates are in the billions of barrels. A successful fund raise via the OO will ensure the first well is drilled and it is likely (but not guaranteed) that the sp will rise we’ll above 2p prior to drilling taking place. IF oil is discovered this rise will continue and a farm in partner becomes increasingly likely. Obviously It’s your decision and you must make it regardless of what people like me think, so dyor etc etc and good luck!
They'll need to raise significantly less from any Institutions than the amount considered previously and making up the remainder from any shortfall from the Open Offer. The recent Proacti e Investor interview was very bullish on that point and no doubt certain initial 'enquiries' have already been made from that perspective. They seem very confident indeed that Shore Capital will be able to place any of the remaining stock, the large majority expected to be taken up at tge 2p price via the Open offer and with the Directors.
Your decision to do what you like with your money but I'm expecting that massive push on the share price, beyond the further re-rates through other catalysts and based on the very Confident stance of the Management, who are mych better appraised of all 'negotiation initiatives' on the various points, than we are.
Atb
It would be a positive if the funds are raised. But I need clarification here. If the institutions didn't support the private placement when it was recently shopped around, what makes this attractive for us retails investors? If someone can offer a good reason to invest, then I’m in. But I’d also like to know if the Bahamian gov will allow a minnow to drill a well without a bond to cover potential spill risk? BP spent $20-60B on theirs. Need a super major to drill this
There are other reasons that the drill MAY not happen, even if the OO is fully taken up.
They still don’t currently have a signed off contract/commitment from Seadrill that the rig will be made available (I’m not even sure that they have a signed LOI in place, and they aren’t worth the paper they are written on).
Additionally, the other necessary piece of financing, the CLN, is only conditional at the moment, and there are a number of conditions that still need finalised/agreed/passed.
Without all the necessary government approvals, a signed rig contract, and the CLN being finalised, then there will be no drill, even if the OO is successful.
Were that ultimately to be the case, and they weren’t able to drill if only one of the above isn’t met, would the company return the money raised in the OO to the shareholders ?
Or would it be retained, and help pay the salaries until the next time they could plan a drilling campaign, if ever ?
And I say if ever, as the license itself has a “use by” date.
But if the drill doesn't happen because the government prevents it (again) will we get our money back?
No. It will be kept by the board (again).
I'm an LTH and I will not be suckered in (again) to provide money for a drill that only might happen. There is no 100% plan yet. A farmin is the best option. But the BOD still needs WRITTEN, signed and sealed permission.
I will be very happy if the SP goes to 10p and then I will dump all my AIM shares just to get my money back without any profit. Every AIM share I have bought has been a loss. It looks like the only way to make money on AIM shares is to be a day trader.
Jamins, welcome to the board.
That is exactly the point. Some people can’t see past the end of their own nose. It is far more of a risk to existing holders to buy on the exchange to supplement their holding in the hope of grabbing ‘cheap’ shares than it is for that existing holder to partake in the Open Offer, it is not logical. Also, the Open Offer will probably not incur any fees to the buyer if saving fractions is someone’s intent.
This share is range bound now. Only some clever caveats on the Open Offer will break those shackles.
Jamins- a very accurate summary. LTH’s will be very aware of the points you are making and supporting the OO to ensure the drill is funded.
Does anybody know if there are any warrant options in this open offer, that would certainly seem to make sense with it at 2p and warrants for less or the same valid for 2-3 years ?
its c1.95p to buy in now, its not going to make a lot of difference paying 2p.. stupid is as stupid does....
The price of success or possible entry to the 87p of which ever party is 2p.
If you assume the open offer is the only source of financing for the drill (which is appears to be at this moment in time) the share price is now largely irrelevant. THE DRILL NEEDS TO BE FINANCED.
What is the point of buying BPC shares in the market at 1.7p, 1.5p or 1.0p if the open offer is not fully taken up. Those “cheap” shares will potentially be worthless. THE OPEN OFFER NEEDS TO BE TAKEN UP TO FINANCE THE DRILL.
Those with a very low average can average up and still leave space to breath, others who are well underwater need to subscribe to have a chance of coming out of the other side of this with something
By financing this drill you will at worse reduce your losses during the drill, but potentially make money...
If you don’t buy through the open offer, the chance of loosing everything increases dramatically.
I don’t like the term, but the saying speculate to accumulate does apply here.
Also remember the clock is ticking on licences!!!!
Best,
Probably less than the BoD ;)
Off to enjoy the day now - atb!
I have to agree with you HeidHoncho,
Unless the board have some news that boots the SP over 2p prior to the offer acceptance date...then what do I know?