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"Happy, are you still going to slice on the way up to 365 or is that you holding from now on?"
Morning SteveBT
Thank you for your excellent question. Sorry for the delayed response; I just logged back in to check up on the Asian markets.
To be honest, I had been mulling this myself without coming up with a clear answer. Do I wait until 365 or should I trim my trading exposure perhaps from the 330s with a steady glide path leaving 25% of my maximum exposure at 365?
I tentatively favour the latter i.e. trim to around 25%. My individual context is very important. Speaking to the point SneakyPete made well ("why sell now?"), I have a six-figure ISA position, which is my long-term holding. So, I have the discretion of taking some profits in my trading account and managing risk flexibly without ever having any FOMO.
But I should stress, I'm going to be flexible about my trading tactics and decisions responding to macro and micro (company-specific) news, and SP movements.
I hope this is clear and helpful.
Best
Happy
Happy, are you still going to slice on the way up to 365 or is that you holding from now on?
Slice? BP's most interesting game of all time is about to start and you are exiting the arena? To put the money where exactly ?
Happy, are you still going to slice on the way up to 365 or is that you holding from now on?
Interesting take on CNBC
7 year bull market. Here's hoping!
https://t.co/vdMont6bZy?amp=1
Hi WP
You are right Exxon is up 0.2% and Chevron 0.7%. However, Brent suddenly turned red having been firmly blue for much of the session. I think this is because (1) there is some chatter about OPEC plus tapering supply cuts at the March meeting and (2) some general market unease at treasury yields starting to rise again, which is causing particular weakness in tech but perhaps with the potential for some spillover into the wider market.
Addressing each of these in turn:
(1) I think the BP share price should start to decouple a bit from Brent going forward (which is a good thing). First, although we get excited about $80 and $100 oil, it is not good for us in the long-run. We want oil to stay in the $60-70 range because a/ we want to support the nascent global economic recovery and b/ we don't want too much non-OPEC plus supply to hit the market e.g. shale. So, taking all this into account, it's much better for us if OPEC+ brings some supply back online in a managed way to avoid a major H2 deficit. This will also be a carrot to those OPEC+ producers that wish to pump more including Russia and some smaller ones such as Iraq.
Second, a significant part of big oil's recovery will hinge on improving refining margins which, because of pandemic lockdowns, have been at near-10 year lows. A strong recovery supported by reasonable oil prices will have a bigger positive effect on refining margins than Brent powering to $80 or a $100 and choking consumer nations' recovery.
(2) the reflation trade is still very much on and will be a key theme during H1. This is investors and funds selling growth, in particular tech, to gain cyclical exposure e.g. energy and transportation. As tech shares come under initial pressure as they have been doing this week, there is always the possibility of some wider spillover. However, as the market settles, tech will lag and cyclicals / value will continue to outperform. There's little point holding Zoom stock at the current inflated valuation, for example, when people are returning to offices.
I think through Q1, we will kick on quite quickly towards my 365 target (with the usual ups and downs, of course, and contingent on economic growth, supportive Brent and reopening accelerating during H2).
All IMO / DYOR
(Post a bit rushed, apologies for any typos!)
Best
Happy
Oil majors are set for a great 12 months!
tells you all you need to know about how we will open... Wellll-lllllll ITS TIME FOR THE BIG SHOW