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Nice end to the week
It’s never wrong to take a profit
Nice to have a wee take over story to run and run.
It doesn’t matter they said no,it will inspire lots of match making,which could lead anywhere( hopefully at the very least to higher prices)
Unfortunately the Middle East looks like it will deteriorate very soon.
From a poor start point to.
Think you would have to be very brave to short oil currently.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/possible-bp-bid-highlights-london-sale-scenario-2024-04-12/
Https://www.republicworld.com/business/bp-takeover-is-both-appealing-and-daunting/
Congrats! very nice return rhino. how long did you hold them for?
Missed out so many times over the last year, No doubt it will fly up on monday!
But I pretty much doubled my investment, Cannot grumble at that!
91K worth, Cost me about 48K. Very happy with that!
Historically, a good middle east punch up works wonders for the sp.
Intelligence reports suggest Iran is planning an attack on Israel within the next 48 hours.
This escalation in tensions follows an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Syria.
Oil prices jumped by 2% as markets fear potential disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East.
Drone
Oil prices spiked on Friday morning following reports of heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, with the possibility of an Iranian attack on Israeli soil looming within the next 24 to 48 hours.
The Wall Street Journal, citing American intelligence reports, revealed this development, sending shockwaves through global oil markets.
Both the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices experienced significant jumps, with WTI rising by $2.02 and Brent climbing by $1.78 per barrel by 9:20 a.m. ET. This sharp increase underscores the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, a region critical to global oil supply.
The catalyst behind the surge in tensions is the aftermath of an airstrike on April 1, targeting an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, Syria. The strike, reportedly carried out by Israel, resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, including two generals. Iran views this attack as a direct provocation and is allegedly considering retaliatory measures against Israeli targets.
Israel, already on high alert due to multiple threats and intelligence assessments pointing to an imminent Iranian strike, now finds itself bracing for potential reprisals. The specter of conflict between these two regional adversaries has escalated concerns about stability in the Middle East and its implications for global energy markets.
Markets were already jittery this week, awaiting some retaliatory attack by Iran following the previous Israeli strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria. While Tehran initially showed signs that it was eager to find a way to gracefully back down, fearing what is sure to be severe international blowback, today’s intelligence seems to suggest that Iran is keeping retaliation on the table.
Both WTI and Brent benchmarks were trading up roughly 2% on the day, with Brent reaching $91.56 and WTI reaching $87.05—the highest crude price the market has seen in nearly 7 months.
Https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php
Well done Weirdpal
Sold all at 539p - nice £5k profit in all - still fundamentally bullish here but didnt like the overexposure. If I wasnt reliant on them to pay my mortgage I'd still be in!
GLA!
Thanks for sharing Mark! I’ll make my own mind up on a sell/hold shortly! 😂
Afternoon all. Been reading the exceptional posts from the sidelines.
An interesting article that will probably mess with your decision process regarding hold or sell. I hope it's of interest if not assistance.
Mark
HFI Research
Geopolitics Dangle The Prospects Of Higher Oil Prices, But Fundamentals Lag
HFI RESEARCH
APR 11, 2024
PAID
The prospects of geopolitical risks escalating have prompted some to believe that oil could spike to as high as $100/bbl. But we've been in the business long enough to remember Abaqiq, which physically took supplies off for a short while only to see both energy stocks and oil sold off materially after.
Geopolitical risk is like the carrot to the donkey for oil bulls.
It's ever-present but always far away. My advice to anyone trying to find a true edge in oil trading/investing is to ignore geopolitics. While it's never your job to completely disregard it, my advice is to heavily discount it unless something actually happens.
So as geopolitics dangles the prospects of higher oil prices for many, real oil watchers should know that the fundamentals have recently worsened. In our Monday WCTW, "Follow the Process." We pointed out that Asian topping margins have gone negative and crack spreads are following suit. Refining margins will be the leading indicator for crude this year, and with refining margins peaking and still trying to find the bottom, crude won't get the tailwind it needs.
To make matters worse, we think oil speculator positioning is likely to show another sizable increase in this Friday's CFTC report. Net long positioning is already back to October 2023 levels, a level which saw oil prices hit the $60s just a few months later.
One key difference to keep in mind is that while we don't expect a dramatic reversal in positioning, it does present itself as a headwind.
On the fundamental side of things, US crude storage saw a sizable build last week with another large build expected for next week's report. Looking at the current trajectory for US crude storage, April will be a weak month.
I'm out been a blast since COVID made some good coin here, never say never,but see where this goes ,gla
WP
One more bear case .
The famous sell in May and go away.
This time does feel different.
But I have lost count of the number of times I have used that after we get above £5.
When in doubt sell half.
But I know you will wrestle with it and make your own decisions
There is always a number that you decide will make you sell
( although personally when we get there I often try for just a little more)
Ii says fair value is 560 !
Wouldnt worry about that Charlie, we know bp struggles to hold gains.
I'm conflicted on if I sell a c: £45k position in bp soon. Again, my case is slightly different as I'm a little overexposed being an employee but the macro fundamentals are telling me not to -it feels like I'm trying to find a reason to sell and ignoring the below:
Bull case
1. Coming into higher demand seasonality, June brent contract at $90+
2. OPEC will still continue with their production cuts to support brent into mid 90's (brent used a base)
3. bp already promised $3.5bn buybacks in H1, still target a 4% pa increase in divi, so when this comes the SP will boost
4. ADNOC news is bullish
5. Murrary A has been downplaying previous production targets externally
6. Middle east tensions - Iran yet to strike back on israel for embassy attack
7. 12 month high was 562 at $94 brent - we could easily reach this with improved demand data from China (rumours circling)
Bear case
1. Bp doesnt hold gains
2. Middle east tensions die down as US gets more involved
3. OPEC starts reversing cuts to not impact demand (although I think this is nearer to $100)
4. Inflation stays sticky in the US (althought I dont think 3% inflation is bad if the target is 2%.
I'm assuming that the sunday papers will be all over this
If we end the week above £5.35 I’d be satisfied, above £5.40 I’d be happy, we’re not that far off from the highs of the last 12 or so months and we’ve got a strong first quarter to look forward to with a stronger start to the second quarter.
Charlie
I can read between the lines .
One thing for sure you would never bet against you getting your wish
I kinda miss Gingy's moaning. In fact I'd like to see the shares go under £5 again just to read those posts again. Nothing to do with me selling my shares on the cheap yesterday.
Getagrip
Very true.
It’s a nice problem to have.
We hit £5.37 and all I did was moan.
Maybe I’m turning into Gingy.( only joking, you have been good since we hit £5)
I will be fine after my holiday
If we are only ever concerned about exactly how much the shares have gone up - I will be happy, because they are great concerns to have!
But we certainly. will have more eyes looking over Bp
Plus the very low share price :)
Onwards and upwards
Pang you are 100% correct
I would love a take over, however I do not see it happening because of backlash from government on strategic value of Bp. ei loss of Taxes paid, and loss to an ailing London Exchange. I have vague memories of middle east interest buying 10% BP some years back and the government stepped in and made BP buy the 10% back. Correct me if i am wrong.. Good luck to all.
Agree Spights, think US investors will give more credence to M&A talk. oil sticking at $90 helps also.
Looking forward to Q1 results now! Not for the results but for the analyst Q&A.