focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I like BMS (although not currently invested) and disagree with Le-Barone.
I hate the way LSE always descends into personal attacks on bears. I'm very happy to hear your views Le-Barone, keep it up.
Am beginning to suspect le-barone is a rejected lover....did BMS run the slide-rule over his business and find it lacking?
BMS are highlighted this morning by the legendary Gervais Williams of the Miton UK MicroCap Trust as one of "several companies that he believes have been overlooked by investors" (including DKL, which I also own).
If you insert "directors talk interviews .com" (without the spaces) instead of the auto-erased asterisks, that will work:
Https://www.***************************/6-small-cap-companies-overlooked-by-investors-with-gervais-williams-video/4121117882
Edison have increased their forecasts for this year to Feb '24 to 39.9p EPS (from 37p EPS), with a 13.5p dividend.
They retain their 520p valuation, i.e 67% share price upside from here:
Https://d3s3shtvds09gm.cloudfront.net/d8fd03668a91f88455a226a1640c18fa.pdf
"Valuation: 520p/share valuation retained
The trading update confirmed the positive underlying conditions for FY23 and the
positive outlook for FY24, driven by good markets and strategic progress. Following
the trading update, we retain our existing FY23 underling operating profit estimates, but raise FY24 and FY25 estimates due to more favourable FX assumptions, where we previously assumed that US dollar strength would reverse. This no longer seems likely in these more stable times, hence we assume a rate of US$1.22/£, down from US$1.37/£, in FY24 and FY25. We retain our dividend discount model (DDM) based valuation of 520p/share as our dividend forecasts are unchanged."
Nice tip update in today's Mail on Sunday from Midas:
Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-11927611/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-UPDATE-Shipping-giant-riding-waves.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
Extracts:
"MIDAS SHARE TIPS UPDATE:
Economic conditions are turbulent but shipping is buoyant and industry specialist Braemar is riding the waves"
"Midas verdict: Braemar shares have tripled in three years and supporters believe they could rise still further, from £3.03 to more than £4.50. With dividends set to increase along the way, the stock is a firm hold for all but the most cautious mariners."
on Master Investor:
Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-on-the-way-up/
"Braemar (LON:BMS) – Trading Update Underlines Low Value Rating
The Trading Update for the year to the end of February by this shipping and energy markets broker and adviser reported record revenues and profits.
The group is expecting that the year will have shown revenues almost 50% higher at not less than £150m (£101.3m) and underlying operating profits of not less than £20.0m (£10.1m).
Even cash generation will be shown positively with some £6.9m net cash at the year-end against a net debt of £9.3m).
The finals will be announced before the end of May.
Analyst Ian McInally at Cenkos Securities rates the £96m group’s shares as a Buy, using a dividend discount model to value the shares at 470p each.
His estimates for the end February year are for £150.5m sales, £19.5m profits, 51.4p earnings and paying a 12.0p (9.0p) dividend per share.
This group’s shares at the current 294p are substantially undervalued and look very capable of rising through the 350p level and then very much higher yet."
La Barone - you are easy to wind-up
What i have said is that BMS will have an excellent yr and the prospects for next 2/3 yrs will be equally rewarding- and i am sure the divi will improve during this period and Southport was a good signing specially with a buoyant tanker market .The dry market is turning and S&P very firm and the FFA all doing well regards
Le Barone - that makes 2 of us but mine was international recognised and not a sideshow
Regards
totally forgot about bms. i love ckn but this looks intriguing
La Barone You seem to thrive on inside whisper( your wording) very sad -move on-i am not sure you have grasped how a brokerage shop functions special the comment you made about earnings over the same heads will means larger bonuses and therefore diminished margins - from my point of view more profit -and that how i see 2023
Cenkos's say Buy and have a 470p target - even this would still leave BMS on a historic P/E of only 9.1 :o))
Here's Cenkos's conclusion this morning:
"Outlook and valuation.
At the interim stage in November 2022, Braemar’s order book was up 10% to $55.5m (FY22: $50.0m) and trading in the first few weeks of FY24 has started well. The shares trade on very attractive multiples with an underlying FY23E PE of just 5.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, considerably lower than the main listed comparator, Clarkson Plc, which itself reported very strong FY22 (Dec YE) results on 6 March 2023. With a forecast 12p dividend for FY23E, the shares provide a prospective yield of 4.2%. At our DDM valuation of 470p, the shares would trade on 9.2x and 11.0x FY23E and FY24E PEs respectively, still a substantial discount to Clarkson (14.5x PE FY22A)."
Rivaldo- my sentiments as well with the trading update-the outlook for 2023 in all sections of the brokerage shop looking good- La Barone pointed out the obvious and generally talks dribble-with a downer on the management - which looks as though they doing a good job
I've bought back in here this morning after a while away. It's one of those ideal situations where broader market sentiment has caused the share price to fall to levels which don't reflect the rosy health of the company.
Great to see:
- terrific results to Feb, with forecasts being raised once again
- almost £7m net cash
- confident outlook with this year having "started well"
- a 12p dividend, 33% up on last year. BMS are clearly confident since they wouldn't raise the divi by this much only to have to drop it back later
The forecast to Feb'23 has been raised to 51.4p EPS by Cenkos - a historic P/E of only 5.9.
With various short and long-term trends (environmental, scrapping of vessels, supply/demand trends, longer shipping routes etc) supporting BMS's core activities I can see the current rate of growth continuing for quite a while yet.
Le -Barone which directors were selling - the way that i read CEO was buying - get the facts correct
Le -Barone - been reading your dribble- what aweful buyout are you talking about?
Apologies, meant this afternoon
Anyone have a view on the share trading this morning - a lot of single share purchases taking the price down?
Looks like sellers don't like over generous issue of share options to top Directors? If so, I tend to agree with their fears! Capt Birdseye!!!
CJ 66 - you make a fair point and the stock will def increase in value
Baron has a downer on Braemar and guess his nose was put out of joint some time in the pass -he should spend more time looking after his investments rather than talk abt Braemar and would gather does not have any investment in- he can say what ever -the shares will increasing value
Bit generalist yourself baron - the share price was £2.50 in 2018 before the wheels of over expansion fell off, and reached a nadir of 97p in 2020. Since then the business has been refocused and is up to £3...that looks ok to me, perhaps even fools can run this?!
Hi
With the restrictions coming into force since the 5 th FEB on Russian products and already in force on the Crude -the period mrkt has sharply improved and also spot market -S&P very firm -this just the start of 2023- interesting mrkt
Le Barone
From my point of view a very naive comment
Hi Miti 1000
As said before i am in agreement with your comments - shares have excellent prospects
If Le -Barone has the experience he says then he would be of the same opinion -Clarkson are
saying the same tankers have a good outlook-you then take in the S&P brokerage side for which market have been saying are doing very very good business and in the early part of 2022 the dry and container mrkt were firm
All the best
-
Le-Barone,
Thanks for that and you seem to be 10x times way more informed on the sector than me. Nevertheless, BMS , under this management have put in a credible share price performance as well as reducing debt to low levels. Maybe, it was alow bar but without doubt they are still in a sweet spot in the cycle for shipbroking. Allied to the low free float which is almost 50% of the shares in issue , I'd again suggest that the share price is likely to go through 400p in the event of continued good news.
Your comment on institutions just being in for the dividend has no merit in my view. There are plenty of stocks offering this yield or are suggesting that BMS is a very safe bet to keep delivering good news and growing the dividend. That's a good reason for the share price to keep rising as I'm sure they will deliver a greater than 8p divi for the full year results as well as raising guidance on all fronts. Makes for a good investment rather than the dog you are suggesting imo.
Miti1000
The CEO august comments on the market going forward are correct - its has all the signs of being very very strong rates for tankers for next 2/3 yrs - the lack of new building orders and the transfer of tonnage to the dark market market for which these ship owners are paying on the Sand P incredible rates for old tonnage and in return will put more pressure on the market
Le Barone comments i find helpful- was not aware licenses re the new trading desk and seems to ask the right questions
Yes i agree the shares are very undervalue and should be well above 400 -i also believe the S&P
have been active
Look forward to the next update