Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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La Barone You seem to thrive on inside whisper( your wording) very sad -move on-i am not sure you have grasped how a brokerage shop functions special the comment you made about earnings over the same heads will means larger bonuses and therefore diminished margins - from my point of view more profit -and that how i see 2023
Cenkos's say Buy and have a 470p target - even this would still leave BMS on a historic P/E of only 9.1 :o))
Here's Cenkos's conclusion this morning:
"Outlook and valuation.
At the interim stage in November 2022, Braemar’s order book was up 10% to $55.5m (FY22: $50.0m) and trading in the first few weeks of FY24 has started well. The shares trade on very attractive multiples with an underlying FY23E PE of just 5.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, considerably lower than the main listed comparator, Clarkson Plc, which itself reported very strong FY22 (Dec YE) results on 6 March 2023. With a forecast 12p dividend for FY23E, the shares provide a prospective yield of 4.2%. At our DDM valuation of 470p, the shares would trade on 9.2x and 11.0x FY23E and FY24E PEs respectively, still a substantial discount to Clarkson (14.5x PE FY22A)."
Rivaldo- my sentiments as well with the trading update-the outlook for 2023 in all sections of the brokerage shop looking good- La Barone pointed out the obvious and generally talks dribble-with a downer on the management - which looks as though they doing a good job
I've bought back in here this morning after a while away. It's one of those ideal situations where broader market sentiment has caused the share price to fall to levels which don't reflect the rosy health of the company.
Great to see:
- terrific results to Feb, with forecasts being raised once again
- almost £7m net cash
- confident outlook with this year having "started well"
- a 12p dividend, 33% up on last year. BMS are clearly confident since they wouldn't raise the divi by this much only to have to drop it back later
The forecast to Feb'23 has been raised to 51.4p EPS by Cenkos - a historic P/E of only 5.9.
With various short and long-term trends (environmental, scrapping of vessels, supply/demand trends, longer shipping routes etc) supporting BMS's core activities I can see the current rate of growth continuing for quite a while yet.
Le -Barone which directors were selling - the way that i read CEO was buying - get the facts correct
Le -Barone - been reading your dribble- what aweful buyout are you talking about?
Apologies, meant this afternoon
Anyone have a view on the share trading this morning - a lot of single share purchases taking the price down?
Looks like sellers don't like over generous issue of share options to top Directors? If so, I tend to agree with their fears! Capt Birdseye!!!
CJ 66 - you make a fair point and the stock will def increase in value
Baron has a downer on Braemar and guess his nose was put out of joint some time in the pass -he should spend more time looking after his investments rather than talk abt Braemar and would gather does not have any investment in- he can say what ever -the shares will increasing value
Bit generalist yourself baron - the share price was £2.50 in 2018 before the wheels of over expansion fell off, and reached a nadir of 97p in 2020. Since then the business has been refocused and is up to £3...that looks ok to me, perhaps even fools can run this?!
Hi
With the restrictions coming into force since the 5 th FEB on Russian products and already in force on the Crude -the period mrkt has sharply improved and also spot market -S&P very firm -this just the start of 2023- interesting mrkt
Le Barone
From my point of view a very naive comment
Hi Miti 1000
As said before i am in agreement with your comments - shares have excellent prospects
If Le -Barone has the experience he says then he would be of the same opinion -Clarkson are
saying the same tankers have a good outlook-you then take in the S&P brokerage side for which market have been saying are doing very very good business and in the early part of 2022 the dry and container mrkt were firm
All the best
-
Le-Barone,
Thanks for that and you seem to be 10x times way more informed on the sector than me. Nevertheless, BMS , under this management have put in a credible share price performance as well as reducing debt to low levels. Maybe, it was alow bar but without doubt they are still in a sweet spot in the cycle for shipbroking. Allied to the low free float which is almost 50% of the shares in issue , I'd again suggest that the share price is likely to go through 400p in the event of continued good news.
Your comment on institutions just being in for the dividend has no merit in my view. There are plenty of stocks offering this yield or are suggesting that BMS is a very safe bet to keep delivering good news and growing the dividend. That's a good reason for the share price to keep rising as I'm sure they will deliver a greater than 8p divi for the full year results as well as raising guidance on all fronts. Makes for a good investment rather than the dog you are suggesting imo.
Miti1000
The CEO august comments on the market going forward are correct - its has all the signs of being very very strong rates for tankers for next 2/3 yrs - the lack of new building orders and the transfer of tonnage to the dark market market for which these ship owners are paying on the Sand P incredible rates for old tonnage and in return will put more pressure on the market
Le Barone comments i find helpful- was not aware licenses re the new trading desk and seems to ask the right questions
Yes i agree the shares are very undervalue and should be well above 400 -i also believe the S&P
have been active
Look forward to the next update
Many thanks for that. I'm surprised Le Barone is so negative on BMS. He clearly has no confidence in management. I have spent quite a while listening to the conference calls and presentations and the job done by the new management has been impressive. Moreover the outlook for the next few years seems very strong.
I note that the ceo commented in August that in 35 years he had never seen a strong market for shipping going forward. That's quite an endorsement. Any view on that, Aishford ?
With the lack of debt and adequate facilities to acquire, I can't see why 400p is not achievable in the next 6-9 months esp. if the $ and tanker rates remain strong. Current forecasts surely will be upgraded once again imo.
Hi Miti 1000
To get a general feel on the tanker/shipping mrkt try the following tradewindsnews.com splash247.com and the excellent lng prime.com this should give a feel of the market
Le BARONE
Happy New Year
HI like the way you write to the point
Just a couple points
The Florida brokerage as said before i believe will be a good deal -they are niche brokers well respected and income for 23 should be a lot higher and the same for 24
I believe you may be over thinking Madrid shop - they are class brokers and should be able start straight away and able to create a decent income stream
The problem with all brokerage shops today is trying to get quality brokers - the ones that can produce - on a regular basis that is easier said than done and maybe thats the reason they have in the past over paid but feel the recent deals are more in line with the market
Hi - i am a retired partner of a large shipbroking shop-had been tanker broker for more than 40 yrs and my ex business colleagues keep me well informed - i specialised in the russian crude mrkt - and we all waiting to see what happens to cpp market after the 5 th feb - the tanker market has all the signs of being a record yr and the tanker brokerage income for most shops will be mostly likely be double if not even higher - and next few yrs could also be very positive
Regards
Aishford ,
Could you please give me a link to where you follow tanker market rates ? TIA.
Le-Barone-missed your 2nd note re american brokerage house- the returns for sure for the yr 2022will be much higher and the the prospects for the next couple of years look excellent-in my opinion that is a good buy and have a deep knowledge of the tanker market- hey time will tell
LE-BARONE Aways interested in reading * your comments on the platforms etc- this is not my field -but would be like hear your views on the expansion on the brokering side into spain the buying of American brokerage
Henry Curos from Braemar featured on BBC Radio 4 ten oclock news Saturday night. Only a snippet but
I agree with your comments- Braemar are in the position to expand further by buying into class shipbrokers and this is the only way forward and close the gap with Clarkson- since my last comments the tanker markets gone further up - maybe the shares will respond - they should