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Hi Endion, apologies just catching up on the board and read your response from yesterday evening.
The explanation for my calculation in the uplift in turnover is calculated on the difference between the average Metal Bulletin price for 2018 ($81.2/kg – per Q4 RNS) and your estimated $75.0/kg price for vanadium based on the forecast uplift in volume sold, i.e.
(2,900 x $75,000) minus (2,573 x $81,200) = $8.6m.
I appreciate that the reported turnover for last year was $192.2m, so this would suggest an average real selling price for 2018 of $74.7/kg (Vametco realised price is based on the prior month’s average price). If ‘realised price’ for 2019 was $75/kg (in line with 2018), then I would expect an increase in turnover of circa $25m (post tax profit uplift of £10m) – I guess it’s just playing with numbers in a model really.
Regarding missing something – have you got royalties ay 7%, plus selling and administration costs included?
I hope this helps.
I have had posts deleted that are still on my member info page. Maybe that is more of a glitch than the norm.
Knuttie, that is good to know, and as it should be. Pdub himself "admitted" that he had copied the posts at the time...for storage in his private records as part of a stalking campaign.
Endion as a much deleted poster I can tell you that is incorrect.
Pdub - thanks for noting the discussion (if it can be called that) re BMN between Troajan and strider on a completely different board.
If proof were needed that these sorts of people are precisely the sort of “complete hypocrites that inhabit these boards” (your words strider) then this is it.
http://www.mining.com/energy-deprived-areas-benefit-vanadium-redox-batteries/
Thanks Faramog re the royalty charge.
@Endion.... had not realised we got the 74% backdated so to speak... costs fine... the 7% is a Royalty charge ... I think land owners or something ... I dont really care and just view it as an additional tax
You still banging on about this Strider? Get some rest. No doubt you'll need it for tomorrow's deramp lol.
Pdub, dripping with condescension as ever. "Your worst fears" - utterly false. You were of that opine already and went stalking for material. I on the other hand have more integrity than that and besides, all the material on you is in plain sight on this board. My worst "fears" are confirmed - you actually copied that post, before it was removed, for use later on as ammunition - truly, that is too sad for words. I would go so far as saying pathetic.
And getting back on topic, and away from this personal attack on me...
My comments have always been entirely consistent. I have stated on many occasions that I think this company will do well in the long term (Va, energy storage etc). The short-term (6 months give or take) and perhaps even medium term, however, I am bearish based on the chart, caused by heavy selling and the fundamentals (Va price and current productivity).
Strider yesterday I was interested in what sort of person deramps the BMN bb over Easter (note past tense). My worst fears were confirmed lol.
For info I copied those posts presumably before any were removed. Interesting comments though.
And when you write "don't think you can compare it with BMN ... " Sorry but present tense.
"... Va has got the appeal of energy storage (the next big thing)..." Sorry but present and future.
I just thought others might be interested in what you had been saying about BMN elsewhere as it most definitely contradicts your negativity and attempts to discredit positive posters on this bb. Others can judge why you do that.
Ah - nice.
Deleted posts can still be seen in a persons member info page, they are deleted usually only on the general chat page.
BMN actually gets 74% of the years revenue. The buyout of sojitz was "acquired free from all claims, liens, equities, charges, encumbrances and adverse rights of any description, and together with all rights attaching thereto, accrued or contingent."
And the costs for the year were $19.7 /KgV.
I'm not aware of the intricacies of the various deductibles aside from the above, such as the 7% BEE stuff. I had thought that was the 26% already owned by BEE through Vametco?
Pdub, Looks like you've been doing some stalking, while you were off duty here.
Note my use of the PAST tense with BMN. Va prices have dropped like a stone recently and the promised growth has stalled, pending the latest quarterlies.
As for Troajan's comments - laughable. Reference to school days is just pathetic and shows how immature he is. He's also an argumentative so and so, as you've seen yourself on this very board. And for that matter so are you Pdub. You argue all day long on this board, you condescend and you insult...and yet you see yourself as a positive individual.
Incidentally, how is it that you have access to the 12:50 comment Pdub? It was removed by admin as it was offensive, clearly. Now either you have access to deleted material, or you copied it for use as ammunition later on - words cannot express how sad that is.
did not own 74% until Q4.... be 59.1%... also cost I thought were a bit higher.... and dont forget the 7% tax that goes to local BE stuff
Again, not sure where you get that the extra turnover would be $9m. I'm following you until $45m for 2018, assuming 28% tax rate. But with 2,900 mtv at average of $75, using $20 p/kg costs, the overall ebidta for vametco would be $159,500,000. 74% to BMN, $118,030,000. Minus 28% tax, $84,981,600. Exchange to pounds using your 1.24, £67,985,280. What am I missing?
Strider after causing a bit of grief on BMN bb yesterday you were then very positive about BMN on the WRES bb. Now what could possibly motivate such behaviour from a trader like yourself? I see Troajan had some interesting comments to make about you. I reproduce those posts as supporting evidence.
Strider on WRES bb 11.51 on 20.04.19
"Don't think you can compare it to BMN, as they got the working plant as part of the deal - a real coup. Additionally, Va has got the appeal of energy storage (the big next thing), whereas tungsten is more run of the mill."
And again at 12.08
"Yes, BMN was the perfect storm of Va prices ballooning as a result of China's steel policy at the same time as their securing an additional 20 odd % of their flagship"
And on same bb by Troajan on Strider at 12.50
".... anyway,i see your doing the usual,arguing with all and sundry.
i bet when you was at school,you was gaggad and chained up in the cupboard.lol.lol.."
And on same bb by Troajan on Strider at 13.05
"they you go again.
now post wasnt insulting or anything else.
i gave an observation about your arguementive atitude....which your well aware of.
so has usual,you took it as a dig."
Using £45m post tax for 2018 as a base, (2,573 tonnes sold at $81.2/kg average), 2,900 tonnes and $75kg average gives additional turnover of circa $9m. At 74% attributable, 28% tax rate and 1.25 exchange rate, this would drop a further £3.7m onto post tax profit. Based on be say $2 per kg savings on production, this would attribute an estimated further £2m post tax.
Using 28% tax I get £65.3million for 2019, using those numbers. What cost per kilo are you using?
2018 post tax profits are likely to be circa £45m. Based on your numbers 2,900MtV sold and average $75/Kg and with tax rates of 28%, I would expect a post tax number for 2019 of circa say £50m. At current Mcap of £285m, that's a PE of just under 6.
Minus 20% for tax. It's a basic calculation but just to give an idea.
@Endion- what is the 0.8 factor you are using in your calculations?
Carpfisher - that is what one particularly loathsome individual said, yes. So, not people (plural) or even person and not boards plural (just one board). In fact I don't think you could qualify said poster as a person even - animal is more appropriate - a dog I think. And if it hasn't been permanently banned yet, then I would be surprised.
It also says something about those who find that sort of posting funny, doesn't it Carpfisher.
I was calling the PE nonsense, not you. They have EBITDA as 29.57M..... which is wrong. Must be why their PE ratio is so out of whack.