Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks Alfa, the various graphs that are in this link are all very useful indications as to which way the vanadium price is going to go. i.e. it is not only the China import/export graph but also the graphs relating to chinese rebar production and the graphs showing the dramatic albeit relatively short term effect of Covid19, all in all it is useful to see the implied trajectory and that is without the impact of VRFB. I commend the link Alfa has given earlier today to those that are interested
DarrylJ - no an inflection point is simply the point where a curve changes its curvature (eg from curving up to down and v-v)
I think that a much more dramatic effect will happen - namely a discontinuous change in gradient upwards reflecting that the world suddenly 'gets' that VRFB's are huge, safe, and now, here.
Imagine (hopefully not much longer), loads of smaller VRFB installs in china on the back of that. It will ensure demand rises from the current levels. Alfa, do you think an infliction point will come from this installation?
ComboyInvestor and mogwhy you are correct
although a Mokopane offtake or direct raw ore agreement has long been muted .. difficult to see this year but I guess what we don't know is where the bottleneck in the Vametco process is. It may be that the crushing and initial filter/concentrator has more capacity (This that visited last year may know), so sending (I don't know just numbers) 30,40 50% concentrate is a lot easier than raw ore with 1.6-2%
The nett importation into China is likely to be feeding the electrolyte requirement for the Dalian project which is due to come online in September.
Plus any other VRFB projects in the pipeline.
That requirement is only going to get larger.
Hence the increase in Chinese V prices.
+others
Dalian electrolyte?
Maybe investors know only 10% of our V goes to China but hopefully FM pushes more in that direction while cash is king atm.
Terry Perles has a good graph that shows the supply curve for Vanadium - that will show the price point at which each source of Vanadium can come online. You will note that we are very close to the bottom of that list - i.e. the lowest production cost, whilst a lot of Vanadium sl-a-g reprocessing only becomes profitable at prices above where we are now.
I cannot find that slide right now, but here is another interesting one - on page 3 of this :- https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6668501914923130880/ this shows China Vanadium exports significantly reducing in the last quarter of last year, and in fact crossed over into nett importation of V. Can anyone guess what this might be due to ?
It does feel strange at the moment, daily 2% V price rises but someone selling big blocks yet the sp holds fairly stable, I do think shortly we will escape this suppression, while that’s my view anyway!
FM 40-45 $/kg
And the SP has fallen each day on the back of that rise. Unbelievable. I said a while ago that it seemed to me that the MMs allowed this a single day with a decent rise followed by a series of day with tiny but consistent markdowns. Certainly been the pattern again in the last week.
Even gone green on the 360 day measure too.
And yet we slide. I've bought twice this week already as we are clearly overlooked and undervalued. Just what i usually look for in a long term hold.
Where do people feel the Goldilocks range for vanadium prices lies? The range that neither shafts the sp nor the development of the VRFB market. Just wondering how close we are to it and potentially how wide it is.
thats over 2% every day this week in China I think
Prices seem to be ticking up nicely...
http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html
LS steel production maybe a little lagging but chinesse steel futures at a 9 yr high
It has been whispered that the latest rebar regulations are being more enforced now but steel production isn't breaking any records atm.
I think the green shoots of increased demand through VRFBs are surfacing.. Jmo.
Going on the last disparity between Chinese and European Vanadium prices.
European prices achive parity within a few months.
DYOR.
So i think V prices are now the same or if not higher than they were in Feb when we were at 24p...
Trade log June 2020: Ferro-vanadium, V2O5
The latest ferro-vanadium and vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) transactions, bids, offers and assessments in Europe and China.
To view the latest price assessments, follow the links below:
Europe
- Ferro-vanadium basis 78% V min, 1st grade, ddp Western Europe, $/kg V
- Vanadium pentoxide 98% V2O5 min, in-whs Rotterdam, $/lb V2O5
China
- Ferro-vanadium 78% V min, fob China, $/kg V
- Vanadium pentoxide 98% V2O5 min, fob China, $/lb V2O5
Thursday June 4
Ferro-vanadium - $29-30.50 per kg
- Prices indicated at $30.50 per kg fob China
- Prices indicated at $30.50 per kg fob China
- Prices indicated at $30.50 per kg fob China
- Prices indicated at $30.50...
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3935722/Search-results/Trade-log-June-2020-Ferro-vanadium-V2O5.html