Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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96,876,798
Crown Ocean Capital
How much of this company do COC own now? It is close to the maximum before they have to make a bid for the company is it not?
Why would they constantly post gloomy RNSs re the prospects and highlight delays?
If they decided to make a bid for the whole company can someone remind me of the price they would have to pay, is it not related to the highest price in the previous 12 months?
Apologies if I’m talking @#£& just having some doubts about the whole situation.
Very much appreciated Hamz74 ...and extremely well written too imho.
Thanks!
(There's much life in this doggy yet imho.. but high risk binary type bet without a doubt)
This year it was only possible to attend the AGM physically, and I did. Eli Chahin, Nicholas Brough FD, other Bowleven staff, a share registrar, and the two brokers – Arden and Shore Capital – were at the 2021 meeting, at the News Building in London. Thanks to one of the AGM resolutions. next year it will be possible to join the AGM either virtually or physically.
Domestic power generation projects in Cameroon are underway, asking for tenders with several Chinese parties interested, but it takes years to develop them, so exports via Equatorial Guinea are a faster option.
The hope is to get FID in 2022 and the government seems keen. Bowleven do 6 hour zoom calls attended by at least 10 people from SNH in Cameroon and several from New Age tuning in from different locations, as well as Lukoil. It can take a few meetings to agree on things. Most of the discussions continue remotely even if there are travel restrictions.
The main resource, condensate is very light oil, which is reasonably correlated to brent crude oil prices. The last valuation model was based on oil at 65 dollars. It is now higher than that, though part of the increase would be taken up by taxes. The fiscal regime allows for substantial cost recovery and then taxes the profitable revenues.
The valuation model, which is validated by the auditors EY, could be updated in 2022 if the Equatorial Guinea option materialises. Broker research does not currently include the Equatorial Guinea option, which should have lower costs than the previous plan that involved building a processing plant to split up the outputs, and reinjecting methane. The broker research reports should be updated when and if Equatorial Guinea becomes the official choice. Arden publish reports available through Research Tree, which include recommendations and price targets. Shore Capital is the house broker, but they do not publish recommendations or share price targets on Bowleven or any other house stocks as a matter of policy.
Eli Chahin’s share incentives determined back in 2017 kick in at a range of prices between 45p and 80p. He is sticking around - and so are the institutional shareholders, who have not sold
Did anyone notice that almost 20% of shareholders voted against approving the accounts?
Interesting.
Wow
1 pound to break even ,don't you believe in stop losses ,I bought at 80p and sold at 40p
Lost 10 grand but rather have walked away with 10k and now 500 quid
the spread here is generally about as farcical as I've seen on AIM.. MM's should have rules around the extent of spreads they're allowed in sundry different circumstances.. what they do here feels shameful.. but it is what it is.. and to a reasonable extent i understand my bet here is text book red or black roulette playing
(no intention of going to the AGM btw.. but great if anyone who does wants to post some feedback here..)
The bid seems to have slipped again. Is anyone going to the AGM tomorrow?
good luck with that 1Calyps0
8p??? I need £1 to not quite break even. It'll take a lot more than 8p to make me smile.
Woof!
Some gentle buying has been going on quietly here for a while recently I see.... similar happened a year plus ago and this went from similar lowly levels towards 8p off the back.. maybe one buyer only so far around now.. but likely started that way last time round too.. as original buying can beget further buyers coming in - FOMO/ chart signals etc - and such might happen again here in run up to a new and hopefully brighter New Year here ?
At these s/p levels I'm not surprised more than just me see this as an interesting bet...the sizes of the potential - incremental - prize(S) here are very large..
Oh dear, Dog!
might be worth a lottery punt at 1p...
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/lng-africa/363135/etinde-cameroon-bioko-equatorial/
Option money now. And most options lose!
As is the current spread.
Thanks for the compliment, N2M. I enjoy reading your posts too. I was very tempted to pick up some at 2.8p (quoted) this morning but held back due to my money being committed elsewhere (TXP heavily). I wrote: 'Sometime soon something will have to give'.
I think BLVN are testing this out:
'The JV partners propose to renew the Etinde Exclusive Exploitation Agreement (EEEA) licence as part of the regulatory process associated with FID in 2022. The risk of the Etinde licence potentially being removed following its expiry in January 2021 is considered low at the current time.'
SNH should renew quickly if they are serious about progressing development with BLVN. If they delay renewal, then BLVN know the score. But even renewal doesn't guarantee progress. A lot of politics at play here imo. Note that Paul Biya met with Equatorial Guinea's Oil minister in September:
https://www.africaintelligence.com/oil--gas_state-strategy/2021/09/21/what-really-happened-when-biya-met-oil-minister-obiang,109692997-arthttps://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/1509-11877-cemac-equatorial-guinea-meets-with-cameroonian-authorities-to-boost-cooperation-in-the-hydrocarbons-sector
it takes this update to get some posting going here.. so at least one thing good has happened today on this dead BB... and HS posts are always worth a good read imho..
I topped up a small amount at just under 3p .. so there's at least 1 buy HS !.. indeed 25 trades showing so far here - with delay it'll be more - so MM's marked down not just for the hell of it...ie there was selling straight off the back of that RNS..granted it's a very illiquid name and so takes little to move down.. (or up even.. so this could bounce back a bit from 38% down thru rest of today, maybe/hopefully )
posted this on VOG board just now:
So, what are we to make of this?
The MMs have heavily marked down BLVN this morning, and dropped VOG a little - but currently no one is buying and no one selling - seems everyone is waiting to see how it plays out.
There seems a large element of bluff and counter-bluff between BLVN and SNH here. Clearly Limbe rather than Bioko is the preferred option for BLVN if SNH cooperate (but 9 months have passed without progress). Cameroon needs the gas and developments, yet someone in government seems to be deliberately obstructing progress. [Corruption might be a concern here?]. Sometime soon something will have to give. Will they mothball Etinde? Unlikely imo. Will there be further delay? Quite possibly. And does it effect VOG? - It could be argued that if Etinde is mothballed/delayed then Cameroon becomes ever more reliant on VOG gas? BLVN is clearly a bargain at this price if all proceeds OK (mcap under £10m, with possible value of $150m). VOG has other issues of more concern and, although a bonus, is not hugely reliant on Etinde development. We still await the RSM arbitration decision which is crucial for VOG.
Here, holding on today's news..
Hi Symbo1, yes like you been holding these for many years now with almost nothing left to look forward to.
It does seem that anything to do with Cameroon is a NO NO and like VOG far too much money is needed in brown bags to get anywhere and BLVN could go the same way as VOG.
Written this off as dead money now anyway and if something does turn up in the end it will be a bonus.
Been holding over 13 years since when it was a dead cert multibagger. I don’t think we’ve many months left at this rate. Coc are never going to be able to negotiate from this level, I’d be very surprised. Perhaps they want in more but at a much lower rate, hence have crashed it. Nothing would surprise me any more with aim.
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Most AIM companies sugar coat such a tricky update as a rule; these guys the exact opposite even, perhaps. Altogether, I think they could have been less brutal in their tone...
I still guess this will get to FID in the end.. even if they have to do a raise in say 9 months time.. and I'm confident they'll get that away readily enough given the prize at stake.. even if it's for a very low ball price, its still only a few million raise versus the large scheme of project they're involved in....
That said this has gone so badly since Kevin Hart etc were ousted it's hard to believe.. and given the very strong 2021/22 price picture, even harder to believe...from all that cash handed back to shareholders to this mornings update is a shocking jouney so far.. but AIM O&G is hardcore gambling .. so c'est la vie.. and I still have reasonable hope here on an 18 month view forward.. and think, give how lowly the s/p was already in anticipation of delay and funding tightness, that another 30 to 40% to come off it so far this morning is harsh.. approaching very harsh even....
Over a long time ago... Close the door on the way out..
Agree with all those sentiments, there’s no clarity on a pathway forward and seemingly no progress over the last 12 months. Very disappointing