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Volatility
Touched 158 yesterday, now 146. Wonder why ?
Last post: Shareshunting, 12 Jun 2024 08:56
Not long ago collaboration with ARM and now strategic partnership with Samsung according to news? Exciting times ahead ?.... can't wait to see where this will bring the share price to? ATB
Yah....
Everyone is quietly patiently waiting for it to shoot up?
A very good trend !
Quiet here isn't it ?
On a good trend now
Yep! Now for some profits?!
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 7 Jun 2024 17:05
ARM's collaboration in developing a High-Performance Compute Chiplet with AWE is certainly a major endorsement of their sector leadership.
ARM does seem to be growing all over AI/data centre infra structure like an out of control rash eg Nvida - Grace, AWS - Graviton, Microsoft - Cobalt 100, Oracle - Ampere Altra Max, etc
Without doubt they are going to be a big winner in the space. If AWE can coat tail on their success to any extent it could be very lucrative.
AWE have provided a transcript of the Capital Markets day including the Q&A which would be useful for anyone trying to catch up -
https://awavesemi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Transcript-Alphawave-CMD-04062024.pdf
Very insightful. Thanks indeed.
Begs the question of why there has been such a spike in short interest post the results. It's not as if the share price has sky rocketed.
Wisewave now seem to have a website up and running. If they manage to bag some decent customers, it could be quite a valuable property since I don't think there are many companies in China doing what they are doing and at the moment, I think that most of the equivalent chips are being sourced from US vendors.
In regards to a rights issue, this was brought up during the CDM Q&A session. The gist of the CFO's answer, if I recall correctly, was that they believe they have adequate funds to get through the current phase and even if additional cash would be required, equity raising would be the lesser likely of their options. In the CFO's view equity raising is often a more expensive route. They expect to exit their Wisewave stake this year and this will strengthen the cash position. The 2023 results values their Wisewave asset at around $42.6 million. The CFO talked about (again if I remember correctly) spending more in the first half of this year and seeing cash returned from operations in the second half of this year. That to me, and I may be wrong, that 2024 H1 results will show an even weaker cash position, so be wary of that. But ultimately, the 2024 end of year results should show a reasonably healthier position, especially if they do succeed in exiting the Wisewave asset.
I also think the CEO mentioned during the Q&A session that they don't need to invest much more. Of course this doesn't mean there won't be more R&D investment - they are after all fundamentally an R&D company - they have to be to stay at the leading edge of technology. The mention of not needing to invest any more was I suspect in reference to the development of the current range of connectivity products - at least the 1st generation range. If I've interpreted that correctly, then that means the rate of cash burn should now begin softening somewhat and their claim that they shouldn't need to do a further cash raise would seem to make sense.
Investors naturally want to see instant improvement in the margins but that's not reality. While these currently sit at 20 to 25% range, by end of 2025 the company expect these to rise above 30% and by 2027 (when they should by then be $billion revenue company) hopefully the margins should be well into the 40% range.
Thanks BlueRaphus, that's really helpful. I wonder if then we'll see some more short disclosures coming out today / early next week to explain what happened yesterday.
Any thoughts on the massive increase in the short position since the results? My thesis is that everyone is assuming the company will need to raise further funds and since they already have a bunch of debt, it will be a rights issue. However, given that the 4 founders pulled out c. $100m each on the IPO and they have billionaires on the board, my guess is that they could support any rights issue themselves (let's say it's between $100m and $200m raise). So, if the founders want to increase their stake given the undervaluation in the UK, it's in their interests not to discount the rights issue too much since they can hoover up any shares that aren't taken by other shareholders given the pre-emption rights. Any thoughts on that one?
I'd love to see these shorts squeezed, but I fear that's only going to happen either (1) on a positive set of results; or (2) a material customer (rather than partnership announcement) with some real data. I'm sure that's coming at some point, but it's anyone's guess as to when that will be.
"Blackrock just disclosed a short position, so I’m wondering if that has suppressed the price today after the initial tick up."
Hi Woopert, the short was registered on 5th June and I suspect likely began being traded 4 or 5 days earlier than that as these shorts always seem to be disclosed a few days after the price movement is first seen. It would help to explain the price movement from May 30th when it closed above 1.40 and dropped to 1.24 ish on 5th June. The size of the position is too large for them to have been traded in a single day.
Started: HereKittyKitty, 6 Jun 2024 13:26
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 6 Jun 2024 17:46
Slide 65 of the presentation was a clue that today's announcement was coming.
I can see them snapping up Alpha no problem to compete with Nvidia
Folks should read this as opportunity here is beyond comprehension
https://awavesemi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Alphawave-CMD-4th-June-Final.pdf
AWE £1B ......
Started: stargate, 6 Jun 2024 13:59
Last post: HereKittyKitty, 6 Jun 2024 14:08
It's all about forward looking in tech and this has significant potential hence investments via borrowing
Technical weekly barchart shows sp, requires to close above weekly bar high of 141.60 (27/5/24), to ensure upward progress, in price. Overhead supply exists from previous trading above 140, which requires to be absorbed by current trading volume. Down trendline is falling above 150, so AWE, does not yet have a bullish technical chart.
The fundamentals page initially looks great as regards revenue, but the last two yearly accounts show large increase in borrowings , which roughly equates to machinery. What is most worrying, is that intangibles is about 50% greater than borrowings. I am puzzled as to how the first two years accounts revenue managed to escalate, without the borrowings, machinery and intangibles, being present, as in the subsequent two years accounts.
Last post: HereKittyKitty, 6 Jun 2024 13:41
Seems a trend is to burn shorts lately with surprise news
In 2nd auction!!
Added as when this hits the press it will get a lot of positive attention
"Alphawave Semi's new advanced compute chiplet is a fantastic example of how industry-leading companies are leveraging the performance-optimization and power efficiency benefits of Neoverse CSS to get to market faster and power the next-generation AI and HPC workloads."
Gone into Auction
Started: semi-interested, 5 Jun 2024 21:31
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 6 Jun 2024 09:58
From an engineering perspective yesterdays CMD was an excellent presentation on the addressable market and Alphawave's capacity to address it.
If you only have 3 mins to spare watch a snippet of Mohit's presentation from 1hr:14min -> 1hr:17min.
It is evident that on the silicon IP front AWE are working on very sophisticated products for very sophisticated customers. Meanwhile in the connectivity products section headed by Babek things are even further along (with one major customer at least).
The frustration is coming from the lack of commercial disclosure. This was evident in the Q&A session. AWE declare that they are 'engaged' here there and everywhere with hyperscalers. However when pressed which "which hyperscalers are you dealing with?" they say they are gagged by NDA's. When this is followed up by "okay don't tell us who they are just how many they number?" AWE reply "we typically don't disclose this information".
I do think the new CFO and CRO are strong additions. The CFO in particular is very aware that timescales can be subject to considerable variability. A speculative guess is that he is muzzling the team from blurting out too much too soon. AWE have been guilty of this in the past. Certainly there were occasions yesterday when I felt Mohit wanted to say more but bit his tongue.
This seems to be where we are at : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpwSXWq1wwU
"Clearly investors were looking for materially positive news from the CMD presentation - and essentially are saying it was a disappointment. A 7% down draft means something."
Maybe or maybe not. In my opinion, the volatility is more down to the fact that volumes are small at the moment. Yesterday's closing volume was 2.2 million shares which represents a mere 0.2% of the shares outstanding. It's not even clear that there were more share sold yesterday than bought. While a 7.46% drop may suggest that, it is not always the case.
The CMD presentation was very upbeat as one might expect as they are afterall doing a sales pitch to investors. Jefferies had already downgraded their target from 2.70 buy to 1.50 hold, a week or so ago and JP Morgan revised theirs from 2.00 to 1.90 overweight yesterday (which is still a positive outlook).
Personally I don't get too hung up on the day to day volatilities. AWE has risks and it is important to understand what they are. For me what the management had to say about their strategy made a lot of sense and I'm satisfied to accept those risks and be very patient with this one. The new CFO and CRO have a lot of useful past experience and for me they came across very well in their presentations.
On a day where we're hitting ATH here in the U.S, AWE's nearest (small-cap) competitor is soared, and AWE plunged.
Clearly investors were looking for materially positive news from the CMD presentation - and essentially are saying it was a disappointment. A 7% down draft means something.
Profits, or lack thereof, do no seem to be anywhere near as much of a worry for Credo, or Marvell.
I am not knowledgable or experienced enough to understand why yesterday's presentation was so poorly received price-wise.
This company appears to mistrusted by the street. Anyone have concrete reasons why 3 years on from the FT short report it still has such a stigma?
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 28 May 2024 13:03
Last post: BlueRaphus, 5 Jun 2024 07:09
Yesterday’s presentation is now available to watch here:
https://awavesemi.com/investors/events-announcements-and-presentations/
Scrap last message - it is presenting the 2023 video.
Hi AWAVE
To view the presentation follow my instructions of 3 Jun 2024 20:32.
The 'View Event' button will now provide a replay.
Hi Awave,
It was available via the LSE Issue Services website but as the event is now finished it is no longer accessible.
A link to the recoreded session should eventually turn up here soon:
https://awavesemi.com/investors/events-announcements-and-presentations/
The presentation slides are available there.
Thanks for your earlier reply on the UAlink. That was helpful.
How to listen , I have missed in morning.
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 30 May 2024 20:20
Last post: AWAVE, 3 Jun 2024 10:33
CXL/PCIe: both are open standard protocol. UAlinks will be used in same as NVlink for connecting GPU. UAlink will be open standard unlike NVlink.( genesis would be PCIe in base (tweak pcie to perform like NVlink).
Ultra ethernet consortium has done same to keep open standard Ethernet alive versus Infiniband.
CXL/PCIe cant be replaced as of now.
on AWE perspective, looks like they are currently doing R&D on PCIe 7.0 next generation.
I agree it comes across as a strategy aimed at breaking Nvidia's dominance.
Not sure, but it also looks as if this development for a new open standard may seek to replace other industry protocols such as CXL and PCI express? AWE has close partnerships with most of the UALink group participants so perhaps it is something that should benefit players like AWE?
It's certainly a question I think worth asking of AWE.
Anybody know where UALink fits into the landscape ?
https://pressreleasehub.pa.media/article/amd-broadcom-cisco-google-hewlett-packard-enterprise-intel-meta-and-microsoft-form-ultra-accelerator-link-ualink-promoter-group-to-drive-data-center-ai-connectivity-19629.html
What effect would it have on AWE ? It seems to be a broadside aimed at NVIDIA's stranglehold on the space ?
Started: Clank, 21 May 2024 19:54
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 23 May 2024 09:19
According to Jensen H. it is boom time (and then some) in the world of AI and data centres.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/22/nvidia-quarterly-earnings
At Nvidia demand exceeds supply and even working flat out the company can't ship enough product.
Furthermore AI/AI accelerators has begat accelerated hardware / infrastructure redesign. Nvidia themselves say they are on a 'one year rhythm' where in a relatively short timescale an existing generation of products is blown out of the water by it's successor (must make timing a purchase / accounting for depreciation difficult).
AWE are definitely in the right place at the right time with the right toolbox and focus. The big question is can they muscle in on some of the action / claim some of the pickings? TBD. The CMD on June 4th will be interesting.
If NVIDIA results are good again tomorrow yet Alphawave fails to have a related bounce along with most other AI related shares afterwards, then i dont know what will make the shares rise in the future
Started: HereKittyKitty, 20 May 2024 12:09
Last post: HereKittyKitty, 20 May 2024 12:09
Trades
11:48:21 132.60 13,593 Sell* 18.02k O
11:46:33 132.25 140,000 Sell* 185.15k O
11:45:37 132.25 140,000 Sell* 185.15k O
11:45:16 132.25 272,404 Sell* 360.25k O
11:42:42 131.94 120,000 Sell* 158.33k O
11:39:17 131.94 135,000 Sell* 178.12k O
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 12 May 2024 18:50
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 18 May 2024 08:26
Shorter video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5A8w_IgBE0
Re my point that the calibre of modern politicians has imploded, I note that the same trend is observed on the far side of the pond.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfgJl81p0nM
It would be funny if it was not so tragic. How did we move from the authors of the constitution to this.
An excellent discussion on energy policy (USA) - worth downloading and listening to.
https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/20900/mark-mills-policy-vs-reality-and-coming-energy-storm
There is some relevance to AWE in that large demands on energy in the future will come from AI and data centres. Anything that can be done to mitigate such consumption will be in demand.
Needless to say anyone with wit/competence/ability has long since abandoned politics to those who can squabble on twitterface. I very much doubt if elected officials anywhere with degrees in maths/science/engineering number 1 or 2% of that population - if even that.
Started: BlueRaphus, 1 May 2024 16:49
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 1 May 2024 20:32
In the context of the evolving business
- I doubt if the out going NEDs were adding much value.
- I don't doubt that they could be replaced with better NEDs (ie directors with more relevant domain knowledge)
So, as long as they are indeed replaced by 'Directors with relevant Board experience in AI and data centres' the development seems like a good one.
With an outcome yet to be determined, AWE have ditched all products, product lines, markets etc that are a distraction from where they think they are uniquely placed to capitalise on the big growth opportunity of the age - AI and datac entres. It will be interesting to see how things unfold. I am already looking forward to the Capital Markets Day of June 4th.
You cannot really equate telecoms or general IT business with the business of chip making - especially the niche business of high end silicon IP and connectivity chips for datacentres and AI infrastructure. They are different beasts. They already have Michelle Senecal de Fonesca with telecoms background, and David Reeder has corporate finance experience in the semiconductor sector who has held executive positions at Broadcom and Texas Instruments.
Bringing in a couple of people who specifically have involvement with datacentres and the development of AI infrastructure, and are sufficiently independent of Alphawave, is what the company now needs at this juncture.
I think this one is just good housekeeping, albeit it could have been phased in over 2 AGMs so that people don't freak out (which they have).
More fundamental is whether they can continue to invest what they need to in the face of larger and better capitalised industry giants. It's also become clearer that whilst the UK may have been the right market to IPO, it isn't now the right market for them to be listed. Credo and Astera illustrate that. I think that Alphawave is better positioned business, but the process of reinvention since IPO and the lack of a longer-term investor perspective has punished them in the UK. I take comfort from the fact that management and board still hold the vast majority of the shares, so they have more to gain or lose than any of us.
I think you've described it perfectly. Rosalind, Victoria and Susan all have telecom backgrounds. Telecom used to be a key market for Alphawave (and I think they still do a bit there), but the vast majority of the business and growth is not in Telecom. Paul is in the silicon materials market, which is not high speed communications (it's one of many end markets for silicon on insulator wafers). I can understand why they want the credibility of Susan and Paul for the IPO, given listed company experience, but it's not relevant now. They need industry folks in data centres and networking.
I think's important to stick to the facts and let others draw conclusions. In my opinion, if you are spending £300k+ a year on those directors, you want people who, at the current stage of the business, can give end market credibility and open doors.
The ley question is whether they can bag some big AI/Datacentre deals. If they can, it flies; if they can't, it dies.
Susan Butterworth... Background Three COO
Rosalind Singleton.. Background Extensive IT Corporate and telecomms
Paul Boudre.. Background CEO High speed communications
Victoria Hull... Background.... Corporate Solicitor and blue chip telecomms.
These are NOT peripheral type directors who know little of the industry and I find the AWE announcement quite insulting to Susan, Rosalind, Paul and Victoria.
In my opinion I suspect they don't want to continue in their roles for professional reputation reasons.
I'm sure BluePhallus will come up with a reason why this is a good move.
The iceburg is now in sight and they crew are hitting the lifeboats.
Good luck to any passengers on this Titanic.
Cheers
Barcap
Started: Koolhead, 1 May 2024 10:45
Last post: unhooked, 1 May 2024 16:07
A bizarre notification. They're basically saying half the BOD are no good and need replacing. (Almost) unheard of...
Where's Bar cap when you need him? I think a good clear out is needed though this probably doesn't go far enough. I think the hope here is a takeover. The IP is probably pretty valuable, it's inexpensive after all the screw ups, and competitors might think that putting their own much more competent management in place could yield big gains.
Started: PeteWunder, 29 Apr 2024 10:29
Last post: PeteWunder, 29 Apr 2024 10:29
Honestly... how does that work WITHOUT insider knowledge?
In Germany there is a social trader who sells his entire position in his Wikifolio-Portfolio 'Attraktive Nebenwerte weltweit' an hour before the big -40% crash. A few days later, he picked up the stock again at its absolute low and is now up 12% on the position.
A 40% loss was prevented within a very short time and a 12% return was achieved on top of that. This is almost impossible.
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 28 Apr 2024 18:41
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 28 Apr 2024 18:41
Https://www.zdnet.com/article/generative-ai-spending-to-reach-143-billion-in-2027-according-to-idc/
"The forecasted growth of generative AI investments is more than twice the growth rate in overall AI spending and 13 times greater than the CAGR for worldwide IT spending over the same period, according to IDC."
It would be nice if it was accurate and AWE could capture a % of the market.
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 19 Apr 2024 17:07
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 28 Apr 2024 11:37
From a TSMC point of view, their main partners in various areas
https://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/oip/3dfabric_alliance
Thanks BlueRaphus, your insights have always been very helpful.
I agree with you that Tesla will spend a lot of money on AI infrastructure no matter whether they could eventually reach AGI or not. The stake is just way too high to miss the opportunity and let someone else own it exclusively (which musk hates)
Microsoft mentioned in their earning call yesterday that their capex last quarter reached $14b, next quarter at 16b, and guided “significant higher capex in 2025”. That’s a lot of money to be spent on GPU, ASIC, and networking equipments, maybe reaching 65b annual runrate . Google and META guided slightly lower but similar capex level too. It almost seemed that in order to compete in the “AI league”, one would at least spend $10b per quarter just to qualify to play. Most importantly, we haven’t heard from Amazon and Apple (the one with the deepest pocket) about their capex plan yet. The TAM might be even bigger than we initially thought.
This is perhaps a once in a lifetime tailwind for companies like Alphawave to thrive. So from this lens I can understand a little bit why the management sounded "I don't get out of bed for less than $10,000 a day" :) but I agree with what you said, the competition is always fierce. And business opportunities don't translate to financial success so easily. Execution is key and we might need to wait a bit longer to see the results.
As for the 3nm IP, I just checked and I think you were right - cadence has them too and so does Synopsys. I got the impression that AWE is the only supplier to Alchip because my industry friend told me at the time the only other comparable UCIe IPs was from GUC, which is a competitor of Alchip so they likely do not collaborate.
He also told me that AWE’s D2D PHY and controller is the best in class, in terms of speed, stability, energy efficiency etc. Maybe even better than the designs from Broadcom and Marvell(Inphi), who design custom chips for Google and Microsoft respectively.
Rz105, many thanks for your insights. They are appreciated.
I've known for some time now the identity of the hyperscaler customer for which AWE are developing the connectivity products as I've heard them mentioned in several podcasts.
I 'm crazy enough to have attempted a revenue model projection and for 2024, it assumes about $5 million for the connectivity products. That's probably ultra conservative. Certainly the 1st generation products were qualified last year and are now in production with first deliveries later this year. Listening to the Q&As of recent webcasts hinted that some of the 2023 R&D spend is for the second generation products.
I think you're on the money with Tesla being the automotive customer. I really can't see who else it could be. I know Elon Musk was emphasising only a couple of days ago that Tesla are not just an automotive EV company and are much more about 'autonomy'. So whether, Elon's project is destined for success or failure, I couldn't say, but one thing is for sure, a lot of money is going to be invested into this.
Alphawave are throwing a lot of money into R&D, not only the $78.2 million they have expensed but also the $53.3 million they have opted to capitalised, meaning effectively 41% of this year's annual revenue value has been spent on R&D. I am a little bit nervous about the level of R&D spend here. This they have to do, to get the products ready for market, but leaves me questioning how much more is required before they can scale back on the R&D investment. If it continues at the present rate, a cash placing round might have to be considered, though I hope not. Alphawave's competitors incidentally are also committing similar amounts to development percentage wise. Marvell spent 34.4% of their revenue on it and Credo 41.7%, Rambus 34%. Both Marvell and Credo reported losses. Rambus would have done were it not for the fact they sold off the PHY IP to Cadence. Credo did a cash placing last year and it had zero impact on the stock price!
I'm not 100% sure that Alphawave are the only one's with connectivity IP on TSMC's 3nm. I know that Cadence has too.
I really don't think the revenue ramp up need be in doubt. In about 36 months from now they should be able to report revenue somewhere in the order of $700 million to $1 billion with revenue split roughly equally between the three main streams: IP licensing & royalties, custom silicon and connectivity products. As long as they are achieving the high margins they claim and the development demands can drop off a bit then there shouldn't be an issue with profitability.
Thanks rz105 for excellent insights!
We could also workout this "$500m of potential lifetime silicon revenue based on 2023 design wins"
A typical AI ASIC costs $1500 to make by TSMC.
HBM is a must and that costs about $2000.
Packaging (Cowos) costs somewhere like $500-1000.
Add the costs up you get $4000-4500 per chip. Alphawave adds 50% gross margin on top, the end chip would end up selling at $8-10k. Yes that's much cheaper than Nvidia's H100 at $30k which is why these hyperscalers are building their own
$500m / $8-10k = 50,000 - 60,000 chips.
Latest large language models such as GPT3.5/4 were typically trained on computing cluster that contain about 10,000-50,000 GPU/ASICs. So the above calculation looks about right.
An educated guess is that this customer is AWS.
Started: Clank, 24 Apr 2024 08:37
Last post: YamR1man, 24 Apr 2024 11:05
See March 1st posting... I eluded to maybe the best option for you. Ah well, we've all been there.
Unfortunately, too much loss for me to bail out now. Certain people have always warned about this equity but.....we live and learn. Good luck 👍
Well i've been away for a few days with no mobile signal and have come back to my Alphawave investment having gone from 70% up to 1% down .
I am kicking myself now for not getting out in the green when I had the chance.
I dont know about you guys but i dont want my capital tied up here for 2 or 3 more years before things get better, so I'm getting out now at a very small loss whilst I still can
Started: Barcap, 18 Apr 2024 08:43
Last post: Pedrobull, 23 Apr 2024 19:17
Yep you have the best tech and still not make investors wealthy if you can't manage a business.
I watched the Blackberry Movie last night, absolutely brilliant
"While the film is said to be loosely based on Losing the Signal: The Untold Story Behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of BlackBerry, director Matt Johnson wanted the film to be a period piece reflecting the culture of the 90s with references to pop culture of the time."
Their current CFO is relatively new having joined last October.
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4405322&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-alpw&v=
They also have a new Chief Revenue officer who only joined in February.
https://awavesemi.com/press-release/alphawave-semi-announces-appointment-of-charlie-roach-as-chief-revenue-officer/
The rest of the directors and management team can be read about here:
https://awavesemi.com/company/leadership/
And there's more detailed information on their backgrounds in FY2022 report from pages 72 to 77:
https://fr.zone-secure.net/28934/1843059/pdfs/Annual_Report_2022.pdf
It's fair to say that thus far they have over-promised and consistently under delivered where it matters (i.e on the financial reporting). Let's see if the two supposedly highly experienced recent recruits can turn it around. The preliminary update and investor call on Tuesday talked of taking a new bottoms up approach hence the downgrade in the outlook.
What are the problems of the directors in you opinion? not trustworthy? Lack of management experience?
Yes I agree , I've only held this stock 3 months and itit's been a downhill trajectory, lost £1600 on a £4000 investment , Not sure if it will improve or not but its clear few trust this company and I no longer do , got more chance of a claw back invested elsewhere imo
I have continually warned private investors about this company over the last 2 years.
Investors need to study a company's USP AND the directors and people running it.
On this board some people supporting this company were so focused on the technology but failed to study the directors.
I have always said that I don't trust the directors and I think many in the city agree.
Be it at your own risk if you decide to buy at "bargain basement" prices. They are at this price for a reason.
I have always said this company will go bust once all its cash assets have been used up.
Cheers Barcap
Started: hxulcolrdoh, 16 Apr 2024 19:53
Last post: hxulcolrdoh, 17 Apr 2024 20:59
Despite the lack of financial progress the company has been announcing significant engineering progress.
However at the point at which it doesn't pay for itself the engineering excellence becomes a problem.
Over the course of 2023 net debt increased by $85m. Cash decreased by $85m. Cash at the start of 2024 was $101m.
Engineering needs to start paying for itself sooner rather than later.
Indeed, somewhat underwhelming. Presentation has never been a forte here, but the appointment of Charlie Roach as Chief Revenue Officer was a move to 'get inside the tent' . Given he only started in February, I am prepared to give them a bit more rope, as the product would appear to argue for itself, and it is too early to call this an also-ran. The full results should clarify exactly where the revenue shortfall from target really lies and as a new CRO, he no doubt feels very comfortable with the low bar set here when it comes to his annual appraisal.
Not a lot on the financial side.
28 April 2023 : Alphawave Semi expects 2023 revenue of US$340m to US$360m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$87m (or approximately 25% of revenue), which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range
16 April 2024 :Alphawave Semi expects 2024 revenue of US$345m to US$365m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$70m or approximately 20% of revenue, which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range.
So much for an addressable market growing > 20% p.a ( though Tony still thinks that by 2027 everything will still fall into place, just that delivery will be back end loaded )
28 April 2023 : Alphawave Semi expects 2023 revenue of US$340m to US$360m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$87m (or approximately 25% of revenue), which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range
16 April 2024 :Alphawave Semi expects 2024 revenue of US$345m to US$365m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$70m or approximately 20% of revenue, which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range.
So much for an addressable market growing > 20% p.a ( though Tony still thinks that by 2027 everything will still fall into place, just that delivery will be back end loaded )
Started: BlueRaphus, 16 Apr 2024 10:37
Last post: Clank, 16 Apr 2024 18:01
Oh my days a 25% loss in one day! - i was trying to keep the faith here with Alphawave but that faith is being sorely tested
Thankfully this is money lost I dont depend on , bought with motley idiot advice it could be the next Nivea they lost 12 % before today , Amazing really and a learning curve , going to stick with it tbh , whole lse is bloody hard work to make anything I've found
To clarify, they didn't just miss guidance by 10%, it was a whole lot worse than that.
1. In the 22nd Jan trading update they confirmed that unaudited FY23 revenues to 31/12 were in line with guidance at $340-360m, today they changed this to $318-323m post audit, so it appears that ~10% of revenues weren't signed off by the audit team.
2. FY24 forecasts were slashed, previously revenue was forecast to be $403.9m, now it's $340-360m, EBITDA was forecast to be $109.8m, it's been slashed to $70m, a 36% reduction...
3. FY25 is now forecast to see top line of $450m at 20-25% EBITDA margins ($101.25m EBITDA at the midpoint). Prior forecasts were for $497m & $151.4m EBITDA (30% margin). So this is a 33% cut in EBITDA and a 25% margin cut...
So many downgrades it's hard to count, however the 36% reduction in FY24 EBITDA easily justifies the 28% fall in share price today.
I can only presume that the Deutsche bank upgrade was issued prior to today's results, otherwise they've effectively upped their EBITDA multiple from ~9x to 14x in the face of severe downgrades.
Last point - the comments on this thread prove once again how ridiculous it is that UK PI's don't have free access to the high level forecasts that these companies are reporting on...
BluePhallus
Wow.... You have finally seen the light!
Unfortunately your series of extremely long and positive posts over the last couple if years
will have pulled in many private investors who
now have burnt fingers.
Maybe you owe them an apology.
As soon as I saw the RNS this morning I made the reluctant decision to get out altogether. I've done so with a profit of around 18% over 2 years. Not exactly what I had in mind but better than coming out with less than what I put in.
It's likely now that I will wait until after the results before I make a decision to get back in or not regardless of whether price is higher or lower than now. I genuinely thought they would hit their guidance or exceed it. Further, I'm not thoroughly convinced of their reasoning for missing the guidance - accelerated exit from China? - that's a weak excuse. To be fair though it should be noted that missing the guidance by less than 10% isn't exactly disastrous but it does show they haven't got a proper handle on their finances yet.
Started: semi-interested, 16 Apr 2024 17:01
Last post: semi-interested, 16 Apr 2024 17:01
When the facts change, I change my mind.
Started: Koolhead, 16 Apr 2024 08:39
Last post: Koolhead, 16 Apr 2024 11:08
Thanks @shearclass. You were spot on on this one. On the plus side, I've made a lot more on Alpha Group than I've lost on Alphawave.
Sorry to hear @koolhead. I've called this out many times over the last couple of years, in my opinion the way it reports results should be outlawed as it obfuscates performance to such a degree that the numbers become useless.
A shocking company which in my opinion has well and truly taken the p*ss out of UK markets & the FCA.
In April 2022 they forecast revenue in excess of $500 for 2024 and margins to have increased from the 32-36% they forecast for 2023. The latest results are miles off. And they blame China which they've been trying to get out of almost since they first listed. And we're in the middle of an AI boom they say they're right in the middle of. It's pathetic. Anyway, telling themselves these results are ok are lying to themselves.
Word!
This company consistently rises on hope and sinks on results. Let's face it, it's a serial disappointment. All around it competitors are booming on AI but AWE manages a profit warning. I also can't stand the way they report. Cumulative revenue over the lifetime of the company, bookings, design wins... It's all irrelevant when you've gone from net cash of 500m to -100m and are issuing profit warnings. I've held for years now and I'm sick to death of this terrible company.
Started: Litoum, 16 Apr 2024 10:37
Last post: Litoum, 16 Apr 2024 10:37
I missed the 8.30 am webinar. Did anyone get to watch? Hopefully it will be made public.
Started: jupiter31, 16 Apr 2024 10:14
Last post: unhooked, 16 Apr 2024 10:32
Link to the Deutsche Bank upgrade? How can their analysis be so at odds with the market? Are they the house broker??
The brokers have consistently got this company completely wrong and the shortest have consistently got it right. When this IPO'd the brokers were forecasting a CAGR of 64% (and that was prior to acquisitions). As it is, EPS fell by about 64% between 2021 and 2022 despite spending 600m on acquisitions. I own about 30 companies and this has been the worst of the bunch. The lesson I've learned is not to buy things based on potential and broker forecasts. Consistent profit growth and rising dividends are the only things that matter and on these grounds this company is an abject failure.
Deutsche Bank issued buy upgrade today to 200p from 180p..