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HeadITS, So back to the Idea that Solus have somebody to sell the shares to at some point once their client losses are mitigated? Can't see a rights issue working just now. Anybody offering further funds will want a heavy price, ie the HYLS4, or at least as surety on it, should the worst happen. The new man has lots of contacts, all this, as you say will have been agreed in private in principle perhaps? Next weeks RNS (s) will clarify a lot. Will we also get up to date ownership data, there were several large holders, over 50% not in PI hands, I wonder what things will look like ? Have a nice spring weekend you all..
In a more normal situation, Oldpa, I'd agree with you every time. However, in terms of looking after its underlying clients' interests, there's an argument that says that Solus propping up AVN for a few extra million (say by committing to the �4.15m of shares that didn't get taken up by PIs under the Open Offer) is better for its clients than letting AVN fail and recovering what it can on their behalf from an asset fire-sale. It's kind of like the old "if you owe the bank �100k, then you've got a problem, but if you owe the bank �100m, then the bank's got a problem." I can't see AVN raising the missing $45m (or $85m) by more normal funding routes any time soon - so, given that they've stated they need this cash by June 30th or the lights get switched off, I can't help but think that they simply must have funding already lined up somehow... I mean can you imagine the hideous barrel that any lender would have them over, given their publicly stated need, if they still haven't got the necessary secured already - and that's even if they could find one? No, I think there must be an as yet unannounced but already agreed arrangement in place. That missing $45m / $85m is just too huge - and too imminent - not to have been sorted out along with the D4E swap. We just need a clear and concise RNS telling us what's been done to defuse the ticking bomb highlighted in the last RNS. (Well... I bloody well hope the above is the case. The alternative is just a tad too scary to consider). JMO
Well If that is true OPB, then it must be the worst supported open offer in history. LOL
The latest RNS suggests 0.17 �m raised , so around 4.25 % of what was on offer. Did Solus apply for a massive number of extra shares mainly, so that they would mop up the over 90% that were not taken up in the OO. From the RNS it seems that they did not take up their entitlement, I guess by next week we will get another RNS clarifying, still confused by all this.
I think people are confused - Solus would have taken up the open offer if there was a profit. They cannot make a deliberate loss for their underlying clients (try TCF & equivalents) - therefore they would not be allowed to participate in the open offer when the price was above the market. The open offer was only for the original holders (pre D4E) therefore I dont understand why people seem to think Solus would be in for more. AVN will need to raise the additional funds in the open market!! This should be possible now that debt is reduced and the company has more book & asset value. Just trying to help understanding.....
Good balanced opinions on here. Cant see Solus not putting the money in at this late stage unles they are better off for this to fold to which most would v much doubt. Wonder with dilution what share price potential this now has? Share price is still baffling to myself.
BTB - Avanti have given the impression (at least to me) that Solus would take up the full OO if needed. From the RNS :- Further details on the Restructuring are set out in paragraph 4 of Part I and in Part II of the Circular. The Debt for Equity Swap and the Open Offer will result in the Solus Funds increasing their aggregate shareholding to up to a maximum of 42.0 per cent. of the Enlarged Share Capital (assuming that the Solus Funds subscribe for their full Open Offer Entitlement and that no other Shareholders subscribe for Open Offer Shares)
An RNS saying that Solus have bought 30 or 40miliion shares at 11p will affect the sp in a positive way I would have thought. BWTFDIK !!!!!!
At least your honest Blowntobits, i also thought the share price would rise too post launch but disappointingly never did. I do think its a big IF with solus. Well I'm hoping they do and im sure most of us on this board will be hoping the same. But the question is who picks up the tab for the rest of the fund raising, more dilution of course, but i also think this company has a great business infrastructure and given a financial lifeline will do extremely well being a first mover with its high throughput technology amongst other things.
Well, as previous I did take up offer and rounded up with some additional, thinking that I was in for say �400 total, because the extras would be scaled back a lot. WRONG I WAS. Probably around �900 at stake here on the offer (currently at 50% loss of course). I completely mis-understood the documents, got hung up on the 1257.1% and 996.2% figures, thinking I would reduce my dilution by some 260%. Of course I see that most people did not take up the offer anyway, I guess since one could buy in open market at about half price. I did expect the SP to rise post launch significantly. I invented a mind set that The new shares would be issued at 11.25p (ish) after the effective value of my old ones was reduced by over 90% , so this was a better move than buying in market. Wrong on all accounts. To my question then: was it always intended that Solus would take up most of the OO? Do they have somebody in the wings to sell to at a profit a little later I wonder? Avanti is harder to understand than I thought and many here are right perhaps. However somebody is going to make a lot of money soon, probably though, not small PI's like myself. I can afford this loss if the share fails to get back to say 12p, I have made previous market purchases that today have moved positive, so just perhaps things might even out. Lesson 45 learned, don't invest if I do not FULLY and clearly understand the documents on RNS.
Not sure I agree Cas. I think the $85mn needs to be sorted before the stock goes back to 11p, as this was new news when it traded there previously ie the 11p share price previously was before investors new that another $90mn was required to keep the lights on. Solus taking up the $4m won't do anything IMO. Only when the $85 is also sorted will the stock go back to double digit (again, all IMO). Which is why I'd be happy with 7.4p today.
I feel confident that Solus will take up the Offer. So we are sitting with an sp lower than 7p. Solus will be buying millions at over 11p. That should be announced Monday or Tuesday. The sp should then move to around the 11p mark. Money to be made very short term. The $85 million you are talking about is a completely different matter. But you could be long gone by then.
I'm sure that Solus will have taken up the �4.16m "spare" shares in the Open Offer - and I'm frankly staggered that PIs dipped into their pockets to the tune of �170k to buy (currently way overpriced) shares. But hey ho... However, far FAR more important is getting a clear answer to this question:- Where's the other c. $45m needed to keep the lights on by end June coming from? Or make that c. $85m if that "infrequently occurring revenue" deal doesn't drop in time? Now I know that some think that Solus is going to stuff its hand in its pocket for those extra megabucks too - but we could do with absolute clarity, not assumption on what is a literally life or death issue.
Do you really think it�s that big an IF. I�m feeling more confident. All the hundreds of million of pounds riding on another 4 million ?
I think thats the news investors want to hear imo, once solus confirm and thats a big "IF", Then it will give private and institutional investors the confidence they need to top up or jump on board. If this does happen then sp will be going northwards again, where it deserves to be really.
If it�s announced next week that Solus have taken up the full offer, sp could be a lot closer to 11p ?
Surely Avanti has great value stored at today`s sp. Best of All
...at 7.4p which would be a 50% return. Probably won't get there today, but you never know!
Yes that headline was a bit of a heart stopper, still worth holding though. Lets hope solus take up the rest and keep Avn afloat.Its a difficult one with so much debt, but once we can overcome this financial hurdle and Hylas 4 completes testing then the big money contracts are all there in the pipeline.
Great minds think alike Dan.... and I beat you to it by a minute :P Yes that really was a crashingly thick title for an RNS, especially given the iffy state of AVN...
Hear Hear
They can use some lessons on better drafting. The headline that said delisting could have caused a few heart murmurs, until the body of the announcement clarified that it was for the bonds in the D4E
Geez.... they could title their RNSes better, couldn't they??? Enough to give anyone a heart attack!
Starting to creep back up in line with each success with the building block steps
yep - that's why I added the smiley face.