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Nice to see this thread on top as the best news on the lft was the production expansion non-UK with 1 million a day, 30 million per month. This news was subdued by AS mentioning this capacity could be used when needed, or something like that. So people get nervous as being the best may not make you sell best. Not sure about that, but I do know there are smart people knowing the differences among tests. It was good to hear Alistair talking on getting the specificity of the test nearer to 100%, think he's really annoyed about this 99%.
Thx PL75, trust me to get it the wrong way around!
Thanks Pah00, kind of you to say so. Sadly I’m obviously not wise enough not to feed the troll! Good point on the read times. Time to switch off and do something else I think. Have a good evening.
Shame, you might finally be exposed to some of the reasoned debate you claim to crave.
And I think you read too much into my mention of “the Myles boost”, intended mildly humourously - I acknowledge such tone doesn’t always translate well in text format, but the SP did bounce shortly after his tweet, which I take as not a coincidence. Obviously this is a confidence thing for some people, and has no bearing on the company’s underlying fundamentals. But his tweet and the subsequent boost to SP may generate a trading signal that in turn influences others to buy, or not to sell. Yes of course he talks up his book - but very eloquently, and seemingly with more decency and transparency than most.
Ndn, for the record I never meant to suggest you personally were a shorter (nor everyone else who was hoping for bigger news on Monday - myself included), but I would happily suggest cantankerous and condescending.
I’m all for correction of facts, but “correcting” interpretations and opinions of what is likely, which were presented as such, is a tad presumptious.
A few points in response to your critiques:
“He said “one of the best”. A combo test might be 100% and take the world by storm, but what he was talking up last time, he isn’t this.”
I’ve not said it’s the best LFT in the world. In fact I’ve corrected others who assert that. It might be, but we’ve certainly not been told that by the company. Sensitivity is the highest we know about among LFTs, test method is one of the least intrusive, but specificity is not yet proven superior to all others, and may not be in future. I think the issue with the combo test, given the call for N-protein reagents back in ?Feb from the rapid test consortium, is that they probably can’t get the reagents to match the sensitivity of the S-protein affimers. The test’s superior sensitivity at low viral loads vs other LFTs (including Mologic’s) would support this opinion. Accordingly, if there were no or negligibly few occasions where the N-protein part of the test reports a true positive and the S-protein affimers report a false negative, then the N-protein part would be mostly redundant in terms of sensitivity, and the multiplex test might actually be a worse proposition than the basic AffiDx S-protein test, because it would be more expensive to make, no more sensitive, and more complicated to interpret the results, which would lead to greater user error and therefore potentially worse clinical data. But trading off against this, in theory it could improve specificity in the cases where both tests report positive.
“We haven’t had explicit confirmation of the Indian variant”
Never said we did. It hasn’t been tested yet - evaluation still ongoing
“We don’t have a big enough cohort to be an approved test - yet. Nor do we know what the s/s numbers will be when we get there”
I would argue that the cohort size for the UK gov approvals is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Not withstanding that other markets exist, of course it is important for Avacta, but they can always validate more samples. But fair to say the results might be different. However, we’ve been told performance is not significantly impacted by the variants (whatever that means) - which would be my main concern for sensitivity (alongside bad swabbing on self tests), and on specificity Al said yesterday that more negative samples were being run to refine the numbers after the decimal point, suggesting (albeit granted not confirming) an improvement on 99%.
we'll know soon enough ,the product is ready ,all the focus now is on sales, credit to the Avacta team,come on Al blow the doors off
No we don't know when,but at the margin of at least 1 euro its going to be a lot of money
In the q and a yesterday AS said it would take a couple of months to get up to 5m tests a month from where they are now. And that is dependent on demand.
Hard to gauge exactly where Avacta are right now in terms of orders and current manufacturing capacity.
Ndn, thanks - I genuinely welcome the challenge, if not the condescending tone and insults. It makes me assess my biases, which I invariably have.
And having listened again to thre presentation, considered the bigger picture, and tried to do so unemotionally without considering the share price response, I think a lot of return is still in ply, and am delighted about the manufacturing capacity news and sensible phased approach. I am not impressed with the missed timelines, and the way the Uk government opportunity has not delivered as hoped, and may not do so.
Regarding the test quality. My point was, Alastair essentially said in the webinar in response to the question of whether they were still working on the combined S/N test that they were ready to do that, but the performance of the existing test is good enough that they don’t need to push that. You could interpret that as an Uber test taken off the table. I interpret it as we have the Uber test and this “next generation” test would be an unnecessary complication. Both are possible, I think the performance data bear out my interpretation though.
Seems to me NDN if you won 8 million on the lotto you would go depressed because its not 10. you do make some valid points but for gods sake cheer up.
Nic give it a rest, time for you to take a break from the BB.
Yes interesting to hear AS say they and Mologic were ready to go with the combined S/N antigen test if there was a need for it, but at the moment the test is already the mutt’s nuts and detects all variants tested so far, so by implication why add a less sensitive N test into it, when it would just complicate interpretation of the results for little added value?
I think there was a concerted effort by some market participants to tag a false deadline onto Monday, to support a short attack and/or cheaper entry this week. In fairness, Al didn’t help himself with the expectations he had established, but it’s clear the sharks sensed blood in the water and piled in. Hopefully the ship is steadied now, and the Myles boost sticks - we’ll see!
I feel like that chicken. My last top up was £2.62 and I am out of funds to buy any from this ludicrous drop. Luckily I ain’t no chicken so none sold. I’ve been here over a year though so my average is £1.50. It will come good in the end. Is it Friday Fomo yet :)
That’s my point they flooded the world with tat
With our tech and their manufacturing and distribution capacity they could launch Innova V2 test since now green light test required and they don’t have one
Its like the picture of that Chicken meme, Thank F*** its friday, got though the week, and its missing tons of feathers and stuff.
Thats what the LTH look like now, alive but only just!
Neut, the cat is alive, but it has been skinned almost to death…. Now in recovery back to full health
Price is on the move, is the cat alive? We shall see.
I’d be worried about reputational damage by working with them.
Jangho, I’d prefer not to go near them, but other U.K. capacity was mentioned (most likely subsided odx) so who knows. We know their CoGs will be cheap given they’ve flooded the world with their tat.
Plain lies. The intention to continue to CV to improve the specificity was mentioned, the Mologic collab isn’t needed as our test is good enough as mentioned. You can’t improve on 100% sensitivity.
First post here LTH
Obviously a little shaken over last week or so but haven’t sold any shares, still optimistic all will be well
I’d like to put a thought out to the BB
Innova have already committed to building a factory in Wales, have a very lucrative arrangement with UK govt and see testing continuing for several years hence the large investment in a manufacturing facility
Recent news states their test is not as accurate as required by UK govt latest guidelines therefore is there a possibility for Avacta to partner with them on their LFT and achieve UK manufacturing with our tech?
He talked about the Mologic Combo. Said it would be done if there was a market for it....
fard, it’s the opposite, they’re trying to improve the specificity to confirm fewer false positives. We can’t improve on 100% at ct<=27 which is perfect for a green light test so we’re well positioned here. Confirming better specificity would show it’s the best test for all use cases.
The remark AS made about continuing to test negatives to drive thr decimal point was interesting. I believe I am right in saying the better the sensitivity (99% in the original CV?) the fewer the false negatives there will be. Which again if I've got it right, will make AVCT's LFD even better for 'green-lighting.' And the ability to use a test for 'green-lighting' is exactly what airlines and others looking to introduce high quality fast cheap daily sel-testing to keep staff Covid clear will be after. False negatives are the last thing you want in situations where an outbreak amongst staff can critically affect operations. So a good pointer to the sort of use case and differentiator AS expects to derive from having one of (or even the best) test availabale, once validated for self-testing. (I think my thinking is properly thought through?)