The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Moniman, we are both invested in Hvivo, but why have showed up on this board?
Hvivo has had its ups & downs (although doing very well now), how would you like it if someone turned up trolling that board when they are not invested. It’s disrespectful to investors and is basically just having a 💩stir. Perhaps you are bored but please don’t come on here because it is not appreciated.
Even if 41p was the support level, the next 18months may just keep drifting down until the cash runs low again? Unless some positive results another cash raise is always potentially on the cards. Big AL got his big sale right at 180p it seems?
18 green doom boxes out of last 25. Putting in a shift. Need to keep rebumping the new comms showcasing.
https://avacta.wistia.com/medias/1h18nhz59w
Donkey, don't assume that just because some are cautious about buying or recommending to buy, when a SP is falling ("never catch a falling knife") that somehow they must be shorters.
Whether some like it or not, many in the market do in fact use charts to inform their buying and selling decisions.
Unfortunately 41p is a support level, so some may be waiting to see if that level occurs.
Others may as I said up top, be nervous about catching a falling knife.
Its not anyone's fault here, pros or cons, that the SP is where it is. But given where it is, caution surely is a responsible and understandable reaction.
The very basic form of supply and demand is that if people want to sell and no one wants to buy (for whatever reason), the SP will fall.
If news comes out to change sentiment then the SP will rise.
Its not complicated and no other explanation other than common sense is needed to understand why we are where we are.
Looks like the FUDsters are winning sad to say, just wonder what they see as the price to close their shorts is.
These now in the old oak chest, might blow the dust off in 5 years or so unless fireworks sooner.
The icy one likes to disrupt, Timster. He’s worse.
Tim, you have done it.
It just offers a different perspective and unfortunately with a SP where it is thats not such a bad thing.
How's unfiltering wynbore going?
“The counter argument could be... we have had 40 patients dosed and all it has resulted in is a collapse of the SP what difference will a 100 make”
Let’s not confuse things the Knee Jerk collapse in share price is due to the shock placing that no one expected and the 40 patients were dosed on safety (although we are seeing efficacy) The next 12 months Avacta are testing more for efficacy, however it’s a numbers game. We will have a tipping point especially if case studies start appearing on MSM, where people go ok this is likely getting approved by the FDA.
I hope so, I really do.
This stock has been unique for me in providing so many false dawns that it becomes increasingly harder to assume, the next one will be the real deal.
(The counter argument could be... we have had 40 patients dosed and all it has resulted in is a collapse of the SP what difference will a 100 make?
“Ice, it’s tricky, because we have had great results thus far. So will the next 12 months be sufficient in the trials progress to move the SP.”
In the next 12 months we will probably be over 100 patients dosed with AVA6000 at what point do folk wake up and go ok this is actually is working. Imo we will have a tipping point where the data is so convincing over the 100 odd patients, people will start to go ok this works as expected. The FDA obviously needs to be a bit more cautious, however people will try get in early. That will re-rate things imo.
The Stock Market has surged over last few days. There are better places to put your money to get a return. Simple as that. Not rocket science
Don't know gje, Did you expect a cash raise at 50p with £16m in the bank?
How much is DX losing? Will this next phase of the trial increase cash burn?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. This is hard earned money of ours after all....
Ice, its tricky, because we have had great results thus far. So will the next 12 months be sufficient in the trials progress to move the SP.
I don't know what will happen. (Obviously), There will be 1 if not 2 share dumps before we get much new info (probably).
It all depends where the SP bottoms out to then put future rises into perspective.
I think the uncertainty is one of the reasons why the SP is under such pressure.
For instance I feel this poster in April, now, is a big deal. I hope it is.
“Also the last 3 raises have been: 1@120p, 1@95p, and 1@50p. What price the next one?”
Windy are you remembering we will have phase 2 efficacy data by then. The way you are producing different scenarios is great and all, however you need to acknowledge they do have exciting opportunities and are not just raising cash to keep the lights turned on.
Wyndrum, what is the current burn rate and cash in the bank?
" The sniff of a license deal and this 3 or 4 bags! Commercial validation transforms this instantly and destroys pretty much every single attack line of FUD in a single go. It will happen without warning just like that. This was sitting at 130p just a few months ago when funding concerns loomed large. Those concerns are now gone for years"
And is their a "sniff" of a license deal? Is their any sign of commercial validation?
The cash is apparently good to last til Feb 26. (But to believe that you have to trust AS on his time line predictions. To do that is illogical based on him missing every single timeline so fa) But even on that basis when do you think AVCT will go to market? 6 months before? sooner? So 15 months-18 months is a more realistic time frame. Not Years is it?
Also the last 3 raises have been: 1@120p, 1@95p, and 1@50p. What price the next one?
I offer these scenarios to try and show there are alternative outcomes to your one view.
Games are obviously being played here. The current FUD at the moment is the short share price. When they don’t have anything negative to say on the funding or the science then that says it all. Feel sorry for the weak PI’s that sell out thinking something is actually wrong. Not even realising we have a long awaited update on the data along with the conference. The reality is 19-20% dilution fully funded and we are sitting below placing price with nothing else changed regarding the science. That’s definitely not logical and sustainable longterm imo.
I honestly find the current situation absolutely mad. The sniff of a license deal and this 3 or 4 bags! Commercial validation transforms this instantly and destroys pretty much every single attack line of FUD in a single go. It will happen without warning just like that. This was sitting at 130p just a few months ago when funding concerns loomed large. Those concerns are now gone for years. Placing was painful but look around the market, it’s an appalling environment for fundraising. In the wider context it wasn’t that surprising. To now be sitting below that price is staggering considering what a huge discount it was run at in the first place.
Science has only strengthened, No MTD found, 2 week data coming soon, chances of success never higher, AACR signposted as significant in 5 trading days, first sales could be just 2 years away (in this world that’s short term), CBO now in role for 4 months, R&D head gives subtle hints of deals to come. Yet the market is pricing this like commercial updates have basically never been further away. Theres an enormous disconnect here in what I’m seeing. IP value graph and market value graphs seem to be diverging in different directions. Everyone has totally lost the plot as far as I’m concerned. Enormous opportunity imo.