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I took loads off the table between 130p and 89p (75%)
I mean, he sold at a quid just before it rose to 180p to invest in a stock on a spike that's since lost over half then averaged down before it fell further so best not pretend the gambling sealion knows what he's doing - that's TheTruth. Zero credibility. Zero.
I’m not here to call this stock, Mr truth, I’m here to share my research and have fun waiting for the inevitable FDA approval decision. Traders can do anything they like, to try predict their next gambling fix for all I care.
It's looking like the SP is struggling to get back above the support line that Zak Mir pointed out. Would it be sensible wyndrum, to take a bit off the table, just to hedge against the possibility of a 10-15% drop from here that you have suggested?
Ice - if we were to look over yours and wyndrums posting history, who has called this stock more correctly do you think?
Probably worth a bit of self reflection on that point before criticising him or others any further, don't you think?
Gje, I have no idea what the SP will do. My interpretation of the SP movement suggests to me that a rise is more likely than further falls below, say 40p as a floor.
It is balanced at the moment as there is no "overwhelming" case for a reversal, except the RSI suggest we are also close to it being very oversold suggesting at least a bounce.
The whole point of a chart is that the market knows more than me so a rise before news is released often indicates a leak.
I am cautious and that is why I bought some yesterday keeping plenty off the table for further buys if it does fall another 5-10% . The alternative (if it does not fall further) is to wait for 58p to be breached before committing more funds.
The chart ignores the fundamentals, basing the SP already reflecting the FA analysis.
Sorry wyn the price doesn’t drop from 160 odd to 80 based on a chart when they were presenting to the institutional investors about a placing. It was leaked and sold into. No graph is going to compensate for news like that.
Warning DO NOT heap the teaspoon
Well if we are talking boll ox. Here's my guess in the next 6 months the SP will touch 296p because that's how many grains of rice my teaspoon had in it and on the down side 35p because that's how many broken bits of rice there were. See this predicting stuff is easy peasy
And no concerns over AS's honesty and ability to execute as CEO, wyndrum? What is the catalyst for a share price rise in the coming months, what is going to stop this falling lower?
I don't know what the SP will do, but I thinks the odds are better for a rise than a fall from around here (40p-44p)
Ice, it was the chart that showed people were int he know.......
Gje, if there is no demonstrably good news from the trial over the next 12-24 months then the bond is the least of AVCT's problems.
Wyndrum, any concerns about the convertible bond dilution over the next 12-24 months?
It wasn’t charting that caused the drop it was people in the know. Also on other news I wonder if the presentation Dr Smith has on the 30th has some 2w data available that’s been running for a while now they will have a good idea what’s go on already, especially considering lower more frequent doses seems to be the sweet spot anyways.
Sellers don't have to be "desperate". I would have thought many would have already sold if they wanted to crystalise their loss, what would they have been waiting for? (Some here already have stated it has fallen to low to make it worth selling.)
Now the focus is more on when to buy rather than sell.
I think it would take unexpected bad news to force a sharp decline.
I also imagine a lacklustre update is already priced in. Certainly any good news I think would lift the SP from around these levels.
One of the things to note is that update is 4 months old, so there will be (or should be) a bit of reporting on what has happened over the last 4 months and general expectations for the next 8 months ahead.
So let's get this straight please wyndrum and aldebaran, is the share price going to rise from here? Does this mean we're well and truly out of the death spiral scenario, and Alan Smith is competent once again. I was under the impression that we need to dislodge him. How does this work - last week we needed to get him ousted with pitch forks?
Thorn - help me out here?
"Don’t know why anyone would bother charting an aim company tbh"
because most often the SP moves before any news is announced.
Presumably you think it was coincidence that the SP started to fall almost continuously 3 weeks prior to the announcement? and a 15% drop over the 3 days prior to the raise?
Heights are in profit at 42p and above so odds on this hits 42p and then there will be a few margin calls and desperate sellers on top etc
Plus we expecting a poor update at end of month?
I see 38p needing to be hit also
The dilution is going to be massive over the coming months. I can even provide the numbers for conversion of the bond at 10-20p to back this assertion up.
Thorn, want to see the numbers?
At the start of this rise back in 2020 i.e. it hasn't been filled in yet - and it's a big gap from 23-29p. If we get anywhere close to it, the gapitational forces will be strong.
How long ago was the gap formed?
Not after they have consigned dx to the footnotes of history, or should I say, website?
Don’t know why anyone would bother charting an aim company tbh. News could arrive at anytime especially considering Avacta research obsessed PI base that can uncover and share things 3-4 days before an RNS arrives (for example launch in Germany is that not RNS worthy?)
95% of all gaps are filled, plus remember the convertible bond death spiral that Thornogson kept going on about, that will definitely drag us down to 20p.
Isn't that right Thorn?
Over the coming months there's going to be massive dilution and it will provide downward pressure all the way down to 20p, maybe beyond?