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Are people still replying to wyn after all this time?!
Intra day reversal anybody? GLA
So, on top of the placing which is the main driver behind the drop in price, trapping of liquidity and the dent in sentiment, you are asking me my view on the poster event in isolation? As a veteran of the AIM market, wyndrum, I'm sure you know the answer to this anyway ;)
The poster was a minor liquidity event, which was quickly filled in. In the days of yore there might have been a few more days of excitement, but we're now in a post-bs era where liquidity is scarce, particularly on AIM.
AIM has always attracted gannets, but they're now fighting over ever smaller plates of chips. Another quality of a gannet is that it doesn't look too far or wait too long for its chips. If you told it to wait patiently until next month when a massive plate of chips will arrive, this is no good for the gannet, as it has to feed daily on everyone's scraps.
So, until the massive plate of chips arrives, which could be the 2w results, or early p2 results, and until sentiment returns, minor events such as the poster will be sold into. I read absolutely zilch into the underlying trial performance, except to say that as a result of the dent in sentiment, many will now require further validation or trial progress before injecting further capital. If the placing had been at 90p, I'd wager that we wouldn't event be having this conversation, and the share price would be back up above 100p already.
Gje, the placing forced the price down to 50p then rallied to 58p. Its the fall from there with the Poster presentation looming and then the fall after the presentation that I was (genuinely) interested in your views on.
The share price fall is clearly as a result of the placing, and the dent in sentiment as a result. A lot of capital has been trapped above 100p, and so PI liquidity has been reduced. There will be those that kept some on the side, and others that bailed at the placing price, so it's a waiting game now to see how low this goes before piling in. A few more localised waves to go before this is reached. In the short term this is at the whim of trading.
Gje, given we have different view points, on the near term at least, what do you think has caused the SP to fall after the presentation. (it was 58p prior to the Poster event), given your expectation in the near term (2WD etc)
Think you are projecting again. My opinion, as I've stated, is that the 2w trial results will be the next touch point. Any subsequent bigger news will only come following that. The examples of Alpine Immunity just demonstrate that there can be vacuums of doubt and despair before such turns.
I agree gje that a reversal in trend tends to be driven by unexpected news.
The fact that you are expecting it suggests that you are out of sync with the majority of opinion. Which is fine, by the way.
I guess it just depends on what you want from a stock.
My attempts are always to try and maximise profit. I find it much harder to do that by looking ahead too far.
Different strokes and all that.
Wyndrum, changes in SP trend tend to be out of the blue.
Gje, "...Then, out of the blue, ...."
I appreciate that, but I don't base my expectation on "out of the blue" events.
I agree that everything we know of how this has progressed is very positive, (that's why I continue to hold some stock).
But I am struggling to understand after the raise came in and we, the market etc, had adjusted to the 50p SP and then the Poster presentation caused a fall in the SP. That doesn't make any sense . Or at least no sense in the short term.
So I agree, it is looking like an out of the blue event will be needed to support the SP.
This is a real, not for "widows and orphan's" stock.
07 Jan 2021: License Agreement with POINT Biopharma Inc "The agreement provides POINT with an exclusive license to the pre|CISION technology for use in the first radiopharmaceutical prodrug the company intends to develop, and a non-exclusive license to the pre|CISION™ platform for the development of a broader pipeline of FAP-activated radiopharmaceuticals."
https://avacta.com/license-agreement-with-point-biopharma-inc/
A non-excusive license deal with Novartis to develop FAP-activated radiopharmaceuticals should surely be possible, given Novartis' interest in radiopharmaceuticals and their keen competition with Point/Lilly in that area. Would be a good way in for Novartis to test the water, although I think they, like any company, can look at pre|CISION in detail in their own labs, just can't publish or commercialise anything without an agreement with Avacta.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/point-breaks-open-phase-3-data-showing-how-drug-14b-lilly-buyout-saga-matches-pluvicto
BV....and Janet Munro's (Head Program Innovation, Global Drug Development at Novartis) 'Best is still to come ' comment on Linkedin with a fingers crossed emoji was quite a nod to Avactas AVA6000 data.
That was "Agreed" to "If it's validation that BP is looking for then this could come in a few forms"
The repayment share issue on Monday May hammer this down another 5% but it should recover into 40s soon enough.
Agreed
That's one possible scenario out of many wyndrum.
Let's revisit the case of Alpine Immune Science.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/4uyLkwXa/?symbol=NYSE%3ANIO
From Aug 23 to Nov 23, the share price dropped 44%. Why did it do that? What didn't the market know about the upcoming deal, what were all the doubts swirling around at the time to push it down? No doubt there were hoards of naysayers taking the opportunity to talk the prospect down and capitalise. Then, out of the blue, in Nov the price just started to rocket. It continued to ascend for 5 months and a left orbit earlier this month when the takeover was announced. Did everyone know about the takeover six months in advance? Will the next price rise that avacta enjoys also indicate a takeover in 6 months? Does the market know anything at all?
"The assumption is 2WD will be better for outcomes. But will it?"
"The implication is either this is not quite the breakthrough in cancer care we all think, or it is still has the potential to fail"
The 3w trial has already demonstrated the delivery mechanism, so "has it got the potential to fail"? Absolutely not. Between the results of the last phase and the new 2w trial, the pharmacokinetics of precision will be the same in terms of delivery, but could yield better response rates. Even if precision with dox doesn't have a 100% response rate, the mechanism is proven, and any number of more potent warheads could be strapped to it. So does it have the potential to fail - no, as it has in many respects already succeeded.
Another possibility, given the comments that have been made along the way by AS, that there were a few approaches by some minnows that wanted to take a punt with precision, but either were chancers trying to take advantage of Avacta's cash situation, or genuinely didn't have the funds to stump up decent cash upfront. If this were the case then it's only a good thing they are declined.
Anyway, we should get a pretty good idea of how this really works when targeted and dosed more frequently, once the ongoing trial 2w results are released (let's not forget patients are being dosed as we speak!). This for me could be the pivotal decision point for anyone following the actual trial results, be it PI's or BP.
Wyndrum is focusing on one hypothetical scenario. By all means take it on board, but it's just one of many.
BV, thanks for elaborating your point. If it's validation that BP is looking for then this could come in a few forms:
- A license deal or two (as you say)
- A nod from the FDA
- Overwhelmingly positive results coming out of the 2w trial or early P2 trial results
"....not the sealion, who I now see has joined in as a green box, nor anyone on here - has your best interests at heart. "
Speak for yourself.
I post here to bring different scenarios to the fore in an attempt for those who had not considered them to do just that so that within their own personal finances, it might help mitigate losses or maximise profit depending on their own thought processes.
If I have an "agenda", then that is it.
@gje,
Pharma companies are very conservative. Unsurprising when the huge sums of money and the companies's (and the CEOs') futures are at stake. Decisions are taken very carefully when it comes to new drug classes, new mechanisms of action. There is a definite 'After you' culture until commerciability is proven and then the 'Me too' culture kicks in and takes over and it's a very strong-willed CEO who can resist piling in along with the rest (like with Novartis not joining the ADC beanfeast: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/jpm24-cancer-players-jump-head-first-adc-field-novartis-ceo-explains-how-hes-resisted ).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Me-too_drug
I believe Avacta need a deal or two with BP, such as a non-exclusive licence to use pre|CISION with a company's specifically named oncology class of drugs. Backend-load the deal(s) with milestone and royalty payments and once one signs up the others will (mostly) all say "Me too!"
So is AS looking for the big deal to commercialise pre|CISION or is he looking for the big deal as a takeover (uncomplicated by annoying little deals that might tread on the toes of the buyer) and a nice job for himself in the new set up? Remember, no one - not AS, not MM, not the sealion, who I now see has joined in as a green box, nor anyone on here - has your best interests at heart. A buy out at a large premium on a heavily discounted share price wouldn't matter to AS as long as his future was secured. That's life. It's just the way of the world.
Let's hope so VS let's hope so. This is extremely painful to watch ATM I think that PL's pitchfork stall will do very well at the AGM and if the SP is still languishing AS will have to move aside.
BV...you're forgetting the long terms contacts the likes of CC have and our Partners. Pharma is like any other big industry/business. Contacts are key to breaking the herd mentality. They all jump in on what they think is going to be the next big 'must have'. Avacta and their current partners have to now work those contacts and convince one or more Pharma (not necessarily biggies) to take up one or more of the PreCision pipeline products. They can only do this with data and FDA approval but the contacts can now be warmed up. PreCision right now is a leap of faith for most companies but that will change as they have access to the hard data.
If you look at the stories behind successful ground breaking innovative products/businesses, they too hit brick walls.
ARM was just such a company and when they finally broke through the wall they were still able to build a very successful business on their own and it was some years before they sold out. Their business model was based on a Licenced out Platform.
BV: "AS hanging on for the big deal. Pharma can wait because no one is commercialising this if Avacta is going it alone. Avacta doesn't have the resources - cash, staff, skills - to go it alone and pharma knows that. Pharma can wait until Avacta are desperate for cash again."
Very good point BV,.
As AVCT come towards the end game it starts to crystalise the options available.
Its down to 18 months give or take. Is that time for the efficacy trial to be completed? Will the FDA have made a decision within that time?
The assumption is 2WD will be better for outcomes. But will it? Again that part of the trial has to be concluded. As BV highlights, the "go it alone" strategy removes pressure off BP to act quickly, which in turns reveals new different strategies for all parties.
My take knowing AS's MO is that there has been little or no positive approaches thus far from anyone of note and he is being forced down this route.
Money is not the immediate issue as the RI has given them the breathing space needed so the focus goes back to the science, but it was disappointing to me that there has been such a muted reaction to the latest presentation.
The implication is either this is not quite the breakthrough in cancer care we all think, or it is still has the potential to fail and is only at a promising early stage, or it is years away from, whoever owns it, making any money.
Given the trial has progressed for years and the SP has fallen so dramatically suggests it was wildly over valued.
I am coming to the conclusion that a likely scenario of talks between AVCT and BP have at best been promising and constructive but BP don't value the tech as as valuable as many here do and perhaps have indicated what they would pay AVCT to either license it or even buy them out and it was never anywhere near 185p per share.
Maybe its a case of who blinks first but David & Goliath doesn't begin to describe the mismatch between BP & AVCT.
(imo dyor etc)
July/August. It will take a deal maker like Simon Bennett 7 or 8 months to get the ball rolling. It doesn't happen overnight.
BV are you the most elaborate wyndrum sleeper account yet? BP is not a single entity, they don’t sit around a table and agree that they’ll all hold off until Avacta are desperate for cash before carving up Avacta like some some kind of composite pharma man. Your posts have become increasingly unhinged of late.
I think Avacta probably do have the funds to Commercialise AVA6000 BV but it's coming at a heavy cost to the shareholders and share price.
Way back when I thought that it was possible that AVA6000 might produce such excellent clinical results that word of mouth and excitement in the scientific/clinical World would propel the share price forward on a wave of good news, as we now know it's all a bit more nuanced than that. Many of the patients/tumour types enrolled would never have been expected to respond well to Doxorubicin no matter how it was administered. It also looks like AVA6000 is being flushed out of the system rather quicker than they thought taking the bound Doxorubicin with it.
Shorter dosing intervals and patients/tumours being selected that are likely to respond well will hopefully be an easier story to sell. Patient numbers will still be small but consistent clinical responses in a high proportion of patients should start to turn the tide. Several months into Cohort 3? 9 patients?
Time will tell.
Of course the response might not be that good? Unlikely but possible. Never say never in clinical trials.
If it appears to be working however they can then do deals licensing the PreCision platform out to others to do the costly trials for other warheads. This'll be the real inflection point.
When is commecialisation though? This year? Next year? AS hanging on for the big deal. Pharma can wait because no one is commercialising this if Avacta is going it alone. Avacta doesn't have the resources - cash, staff, skills - to go it alone and pharma knows that. Pharma can wait until Avacta are desperate for cash again. Science good, management bad and needs replacing with pharma-savvy leaders.