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Ok. Thanks.
I understand the negative feeling and it is my 1st ever posting on LSE in any chat. I'm not saying I am right. I hope I am not and it continues to rise as I have close friends invested in it. however, I would say that the calculations are not rubbish. You just have to google positive predictive value and low prevalence and you will come across many sites which discuss this issue. I am a just a doctor with an interest in epidemiology. The market will not follow what i have written for sure and I wish everyone well here as would love any medical research company to succeed
Have I?
Doggy100 hanging about Doggy... youve sold out?
For me the silence is golden at the moment for Avacta
Stunning effort, lovely try, you've got to admire it. You even through in some stats to try and make it vaguely believable. Ultimately though, it was very sadly complete and utter nonsense. It's not even worth picking apart there are so many obvious holes in it.
Abdalian Read that several times to try and grasp the logic, and the realised there is none. What a load of ******
They therefore do provide useful information?
More so than some of the new contributors showing up recently.
forgot to mention. the roche and abbot tests are IgG tests and they check for people who have already had it and the prevalence in that case is 7%. They therefore do provide useful information
The most important thing for AVACTA or other companies engaged in making detection tests for the virus will depend on the accuracy of the test. This is the crucial bit of information which is unfortunately missing yet. The real money spinner would be the ability to tell who has the virus within a matter of minutes. The Roche antibody test has a sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 99.8% respectively (definitely impressive). Let us assume that Avacta will produce a similarly accurate test. The problem for Avacta is the prevalence of the condition. ONS estimates suggest 0.27% of the population have the condition at any given time. Any test with the above sensitivity and specificity attempting to identify virus positive patients in the community, at such low prevalence levels, will generate a positive predictive value of just 57%. That means even if the test result is positive there is 43% chance that the result is a false positive, unfortunately rendering it useless. At such low prevalence levels, unfortunately, the specificity of the test needs to be pretty much 100%. This obviously does not apply to hospital testing as the prevalence is higher there. Ironically, for these vaccine trials and testing trials to show benefit, they need the virus to spread much faster than it is already doing. I hope that makes sense.
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5e985bc231da814c9fc6a477
Have a watch...
Hello Charlie. I would suggest you have a good look at the company presentations & previous snippets of news. You can then form your own opinion.
Been trading for the last 5 years now but been playing it safe mainly tech and ETF's. I'm looking to bring on some much riskier trades during this crazy time. This looks interesting but I may have missed the boat at these prices?! I look for fundamentals whereas this looks heavily like speculation of contracts and waiting for positive news - Is the price justified if it's a loss making business? Would love to get opinions/facts?
The reality is that negaters have no premise here.
The knowledgeable posters are well aware we are in "wait for the next stream of news game" mode now.
Next strong news will put this share between £2.50 to £3. As we will be confirming we are a step next to producing and distributing a game changing test.
Those wanting to dip in and out risk the chance of this share getting away from them.
The support base has shown itself to be around £.70
But even if you are able to trade some sort of short term profit if you misjudge your timing and news comes out while you have sold you will have cost yourself a lot more than your short term gain.
We've not been attacked by the negaters today, thought they'd be all over it!