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Happy they finally listened about share buy backs after laughing it off in prior call.
If 1m does not mean much to company just buy back. Making 100pct return and also lets shareholders exit if they feel like it.
If your sitting on 100m gbp what is issue in allocating 1pct to this to ease some pain
Looking for my 150p, come on!
Once rates start to fall all these debt plays will rerate
That’s good news … I just would like 150p … it should be at least an now!
The Company's broker was approached over the summer in relation to a potential takeover offer, however, while the board diligently contemplated the proposal, the broker was ultimately unable to verify the funding package of the potential bidder and discussions were therefore brought to a close.
This is edging up nicely, just a bit more for me and I have a big Christmas present!
Here's an old article on Raper's investment approach :
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412437-sa-interview-deep-value-and-special-situation-investing-with-jeremy-raper
.."As for investment decision process - this is a complex, multi-step process, but in general, I try to answer the following questions:
1) does this meet my minimum criteria for valuation (i.e., in general I won't buy anything more than 10x normalized free cash flow)?
2) does this have a strong downside protection (derived from asset value, or strategic value to an acquirer, or through potential strategic action)?
3) what does the market not understand about the value/quality of the business and how will that change in the next 12mos? i.e., what is going to get the market to view this asset like I do? What is the catalyst to rerate it?
Assuming all three of these criteria are met, then it can theoretically go into the book, provided point 3) is satisfied in spades - that is, I need to be fully convinced something is going to change, fairly imminently, as cheapness and downside protection alone are never enough.
I wonder what he thinks the catalyst for AVAP is - industry consolidation?
ATB
Unfortunately the podcast link didn’t work.
Jeremy raper on the business brew podcast touches on Avap
This might help explain it. Don’t think anyone is window dressing for performance…
[LINK REMOVED]
Institution purchased a big block.
They are just buying up small volume.
End of year looks like huge gain. 80p to 120!
Slow and steady rise … the way I like it, this still seems so under the radar …get in quick
Less than half its Intrinsic value .. this surely should move up soon!
I am after 150p for 1st target, it should be easy to get there!
Nice
Well this is looking a bit better, still climbing, nice to see the shorters dont have thier greedy fingers in all the pies!
Easy bonus. Take big block in off market trade. Spend a bit more in illiquid market. Show big profit get paid bonus.
Good to see a small rise!
Thanks for your view Carcosa, back in with a few to see!
Also worth remembering that Avation had negotiated a 'very good' inflation price cap whereby they heavily implied is well within the current inflation environment making the rights more valuable. Furthermore the Purchase Rights cost no further money to maintain as is. Neither do they need to find any customers for utilising these rights as they can either form a JV or immediately sell the aircraft at delivery (as they have done in the past generating significant profit.
Furthermore they are believed to have the largest number of ATR Purchase Rights than any other lessor.
With constrained ATR production(~30 this year and hopefully rising to 80 in one or two years) the longer they maintain the rights the greater the value.
Nevertheless, apart from the two additional ATR's next year, organic growth of the ATR fleet appears to be muted for the next 18 months or so. Therefore am hopeful some jet narrowbodies will be added to the fleet.
I think I may buy back in!
I was in same situation.
My main worry was that 1/3 of nav was purchase rights. The company explained these rights ( or options) do not really have an expiration date, they mutually role the dates. They also said they can purchase below market value because purchase price in option is has a cap. So as inflation goes up. Aircraft goes up but purchase price less.
Nothing in detail given but it did make me have some more comfort on nav
Just having a look at this again .. I sold out and sort of wish I did not! … seems to be on a rise again!
Nice trade. Or maybe the bank that was their prime broker took control.
Anyway they saw good value
Sometimes financial markets are skewed for rich.
They get access to best ipo's that fly on day 1 30pct.
Also get block holdings at stupid prices. Everyone would double up at that price :).
Glad to see in presentation options maturity date effevtively get rolled.
I value derivatives for a living and the option model they use does not have that feature. So i feel much better knowing they have time to use them.
Also having a purchase price linked to inflation with cap is great. Prices of planes will rise with inflation but our purchase price does not.
13.5 million shares traded today, 20% of AVAP...@ 79p (vs 98-100 at time).
Oceanwood had 16.1m, per stockopedia.
A quick search brought up this :
hxxps://www.pionline.com/hedge-funds/oceanwoods-deputy-cio-start-own-firm-hedge-fund-shutters.
Seems it's closing down, and may be in a hurry....
..."Oceanwood Capital Management's Deputy CIO Julian Garcia Woods is striking out on his own, and the hedge fund he co-managed with founder Christopher Gate is shutting down.
Mr. Woods, who has been at Oceanwood since 2007, is taking a team from the firm and plans to launch CoreLane Capital Management early next year, according to Andrew Baker, head of business development at the London-based company. Oceanwood will return capital to investors while Mr. Gate, 59, is retiring, he said...."
Somebody got a bargain.
ATB