Anglogold Ashanti Plc Share Chat (AU.US)

Billionaire mining investor Pierre Lassonde predicts gold will reach $17,250 per ounce by 2030, which he considers an absolute floor. He attributes this massive projected surge to the U.S. debt crisis, a global shift of central banks away from the dollar, and a massive transfer of price-setting power to China

90.82..-2.97 (-3.16%) ...Bid: 91.10...Ask: 92.00...Spread: 0.90 (0.988%)

Sliced for $97

goldgnome thanks but not that good really this Hood & RR my big winners .

If only I stuck with those three .

Foolishly hold lots of AIM shares = lots of losses .

SQZ has been OK .

Do you own any other shares ?

Did not know that about Trump I thought they had to put investments into blind trusts .

Maybe it is one big ponzy scheme .

Ripley, you beauuuuuty !!! Well done ...

Ripley, you are not up with the Donald ...

President Donald Trump disclosed a staggering flurry of over 3,700 stock trades during the first three months of the year, spanning tens of millions of dollars in cumulative value. This unprecedented level of active trading by a sitting president, which averages more than 40 trades per day, has raised ethics (what?!) concerns regarding his portfolio holdings and market-moving policy decisions

Nvidia and Tech Stocks: The portfolio scooped up between $1 million and $5 million in Nvidia shares. The timing of these transactions sparked controversy, as the purchases occurred in close proximity to Commerce Department approvals for chip sales to China and a major processing deal with Meta.

Iran War Dip: Filings indicate that his trust heavily purchased the stock market dip caused by the outbreak of the Iran war, buying into energy and defense stocks like Phillips 66, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Lockheed Martin.

Defense Contracts: Purchases were also made in military contractors like Palantir, which holds substantial federal AI and defense contracts.

Every recent U.S. president prior to Trump either divested individual stocks, put assets into broadly diversified mutual funds, or established formal blind trusts before taking office

If its good enough for the King, then why not the plebs ... You can imagine the shenanikans going on eh?

Everyone for him or herself, as the ship sinks

LOL

Ripley, thats 10% in a few days!!! ...imagine if you do this every few days ...you could be rich and famous ... bugg&r!

86.42....3.24 (3.90%) ...Bid: 86.40....Ask: 87.00...Spread: 0.60 (0.694%)

Sold them back for $86 .

Not as good as those who bought SpaceX (SPCX.US) for 135 and sold today for 25% more .

So money of different flavours is getting pulled out of the market, to follow the greatest hype ever

International Man: SpaceX appears poised to become the largest IPO in history, potentially coming public at a valuation far beyond anything we’ve seen in a traditional tech listing. What’s your overall take on this surge in mega-cap tech IPOs, and SpaceX in particular?

Doug Casey: Ever since I was a little kid, I’ve loved space, rockets, and science fiction. However, parts of SpaceX’s offering document read like a sci-fi novel. It’s pretty far out—as is the price of the offering.

That said, I applaud Elon’s successes, not least of which is SpaceX. But engineering success is not necessarily a predictor of stock market success. Remember the old saying: "High tech? Big wreck!" High-tech bubbles are often the final bell ringing at the top of the market.

As for SpaceX, the company is basically divided into three parts. One is SpaceX itself, which is about launching rockets; that part is mildly profitable, and I see a real future for it. The second part is Starlink, where they make significant money. I use it, and it’s great. But the bulk of their spending, use of funds, and losses is for AI. I want no part of it.

SpaceX is basically a conglomerate with three unrelated businesses. Might as well add on an airline, a screen door company, and maybe a submarine builder for diversification. Who cares if you’re raising megamillions?

The other two gigantic offerings coming soon, Anthropic and OpenAI, are pure bets on AI. Include me out.

So we’ve got three trillion-dollar IPOs coming out this summer. And as much as I love some aspects of AI, it’s pretty clear that this is beyond a bubble. It’s a super bubble. And I think I hear not just one, but a symphony of bells ringing at the top of this market.

Elon has a quirky sense of humor. Maybe, among the billion robots he expects to build, he will reincarnate that clunky robot from the old series "Lost in Space". Just to warn us, "Danger, Will Robinson. Extreme Danger!" as we heard in almost every episode. Now would be a good time for its AI to look at the market and give us that retro-sounding verbal warning.

International Man: When you look at SpaceX, AI companies, and the broader wave of tech listings, do you see echoes of the late-1990s dot-com boom?

Doug Casey: Yes, and not just the dot-com boom. The 1920s stock market boom was loaded with the tech companies of the time—car manufacturers. There were hundreds of small automotive companies. They all went bust, leaving only GM, Ford, and Stellantis. FWIW, today they’re all managed by women, DEI hires, and people who hate cars. It’s the circle of hi-tech life.

RCA, Radio Corporation of America, was the Nvidia of its day, going 200-1 in the 20’s. The gigantic tech boom of the 60’s featured scores of meme stocks with suffixes like -onics or -ex. The public bought anything with a name that signaled technology. FAMILIAR?

If you are a traditional value or growth investor looking at standard financial metrics, the $1.75 trillion price tag looks wildly inflated, to say the least. Analysts at Morningstar, for example, recently pinned SpaceX's fair intrinsic value closer to $780 billion—less than half of the IPO target. Best guess for some other analysts of note is that it is 30-40% over priced.

1. Price-to-Sales (P/S) DisconnectTrading at roughly 95x to 100x trailing sales is almost unprecedented for a capital-intensive hardware and infrastructure company. For context, even high-flying mega-cap tech stocks rarely sustain a P/S ratio above 30x.

2. Massive Net Losses and AI Cash BurnWhile SpaceX generates positive EBITDA on its core operations, its GAAP numbers tell a different story. The company posted a $4.94 billion net loss for the full year 2025, and lost a staggering $4.28 billion in Q1 2026 alone. The primary culprit? Its February 2026 merger with xAI (cough splutter). The AI division and the massive Colossus data centers are currently burning through roughly $2.5 billion per quarter.

3. Starship Execution Risk....The entire valuation assumes that Starship becomes fully operational, rapidly reusable, and dramatically drives down payload costs per kilogram. If Starship encounters prolonged regulatory, technical, or launch setbacks, the growth engine stalls. If a rocket explodes....

Watchout anyone who is invested in Indices that will have an immediate (highly unusual) SpaceX weighting

cheers

the gnome

Always look at the P/E ratio - the miners seem undervalued whereas SPace X is hope over rationality.

General mayhem ensues ....Trillion-Dollar Techs Lose a Trillion — Heard on the Street Recap

Selling on Friday was particularly pronounced among megacap tech stocks. The nine trillion-dollar tech companies in the S&P 500 averaged a loss of 5.3% Friday, totaling about $1.1 trillion in lost market value. AI chip names felt it the most: Nvidia shed about 6%, Broadcom fell nearly 8% and Micron plunged 13%.

Jitters grew Friday after a hot jobs report stoked fears of inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped past 4.5% in response to the Labor Department saying employers added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the 80,000 forecast by economists. The 2-year yield, which tends to rise and fall with expectations for rates set by the Fed, climbed to 4.16%, its highest level in a year.

Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates high throughout 2026, and increased bets that the central bank will have to raise them. Traders now see a roughly 70% chance officials will hike rates by the end of the year, compared with a little less than 50% before the report’s release, according to CME data.

President Trump posted: "With a great Jobs Report, like just announced, stocks should go up, not down." He added: "Growth does not mean inflation!"

When you have delusion from the top, an expensive war that does not make any sense, so much hot air you could provide the world with energy for a few millenia and a few other things ... what does one expect ... mayhem in the markets?

CLASSIC CONFLICTOF INTEREST BUT WHO IS COUNTING ....To support the $1.77 trillion valuation Elon Musk’s SpaceX is targeting in its initial public offering, bankers are telling investors to look to the future.

SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040, according to a Morgan Stanley MS 3.87%increase; green up pointing triangle analysis shared with top investors Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter.

Morgan Stanley told investors the rocket maker’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2040 could top $2.7 trillion, the people said.

It could also be -$2 Trillion. Probabilities are equal ....

SpaceX posted revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025 and a loss of $4.9 billion. It is aiming to raise around $75 billion next week in what would be the largest IPO ever. And why not with G%d on our side...

beyond any logic ...purely belief in a value proposition that is yet to prove itself ...

I could even convert to being a trader LOL

Just keeps playing into my hands ...

A friend did a quick correlation run, and found there is a correlation between Trumps mind changes and the POG.

Phase 1: Aggressive Ultimatums (The Dollar Crowds Out Gold)

When Trump issues sharp, direct military threats—such as his recent ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz or stating Iran could be "taken out in one night"—gold has frequently declined or faced sharp resistance.

Phase 2: Postponements and Ceasefires (The Liquidity Rebound)

Conversely, when posts or remarks signal a tactical pause, a delay in strikes, or progress toward a memorandum of understanding (such as the recent 60-day ceasefire extension brokered via regional mediators), gold has routinely rebounded or spiked.

High-Frequency Trading & Keyword Volatility

The correlation is less about human macro-analysis and more about algorithmic mechanics. High-frequency trading (HFT) platforms and quant funds continuously scrape social feeds and news wires for specific high-weight semantic pairs.

The Broader Underlying Drivers (yawn, scratch, scratch etc)

While the short-term volatility is tightly bound to changing rhetoric, the baseline pricing of gold remains anchored to deeper structural factors:

Central Bank Accumulation: De-dollarization and structural diversification by emerging market central banks provide a massive physical floor for gold, decoupling it from temporary futures market liquidations.

Interest Rate Expectations: Ultimately, the market views Trump's foreign policy through the lens of domestic monetary policy. If an Iran escalation threatens a persistent energy shock, the market prices in higher-for-longer interest rates from the Fed, which caps gold's upside regardless of the headline tension....BUT.....

China's long-term strategy completely overrides the Fed's monetary policy.

1. The PBOC’s Existential De-Dollarization Strategy

For the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), buying gold is not a tactical trade to beat inflation—it is a long-term geopolitical imperative.

2. The Structural Shift: The PBOC has been on an unprecedented, multi-year gold buying spree, systematically swapping US Treasury debt for physical gold. Because this is a national security strategy designed to insulate China from potential Western sanctions, the PBOC does not care if the Fed funds rate is 2% or 5.5%. They are buying the floor of the market out from under Western short-sellers.

When Western institutional funds sell paper gold or dump ETF shares because the Fed delays a rate cut, algorithms capture the drop and sell further. In the past, this would trigger a multi-month bear market.

Today, the moment Western selling creates a minor dip in the paper price, Chinese commercial banks, retail buyers, and the PBOC step in to buy the physical metal at a relative discount. This massive Eastern bid acts as a permanent macro safety net.

Ultimately, interest rate cycles are temporary—they go up, they cap growth, they come down.

Anglo shares just follow gold price. My guess is the gold price will continue to trend up long term, with the usual oscillations due to the paper traders on COMEX. The western financial system is awash with debt with no way out. We have a bunch of amateurs, to be polite, in government who seem to have as much knowledge about how the ecomony works as a house brick. It seems with the increasing inflation rate, the stupidity of the US and Israel against Iran, that inflation and interest rates will stay up, and to boot, the govt has outlawed negative gearing and rejigged Cap Gains Tax...So House prices are going down, auction clearances down, and so on.

So what does a poor man do? I just continue to buy anglo shares when they get in the 90-92 range, and sit ....Its a great business in a commodity for the times.

Thats an austere life when you cant treat yourself to a pint!

all the best

the gnome

Lucky you, I am not allowed one. I am pondering whether to turn a chunk of Anglo into a house I have seen in Umbria, I have moved beyond the idea of building in the UK as feel far too old and do I want to be in UK for next fe years; the ironic thing seems to be I’m dealing with two kinds of money, the price of the house that I can knock a few percent off or maybe get into a bidding war and it goes a few percent over versus Anglo that can move 7% in a day and keeps changing what I can sensibly afford. It seems silly selling when Anglohas fallen but will seem sensible if it keeps falling but will turn into an expensive house if it shoots up. Of course, if living in the UK, it may be sensible to crystallise the huge gains even though it will cost a lot though of course could go expat till they stop that. I need to go to the pub for a pint too even if no alcohol

What a stupid world we live in....

A $17,250 gold price target is two predictions wearing one number.

Pierre Lassonde — co-founder of Franco-Nevada, former president of Newmont — told Kitco this week that gold reaches $17,250 USD within three years.

The number isn't arbitrary. It comes from the Dow-to-Gold ratio reverting toward 2:1 — a level last seen in 1980.

But here's what the headline skips.

At a 2:1 ratio, $17,250 gold only works if the Dow itself also falls roughly 25–30%. The ratio compresses from both ends. So the target isn't purely a gold call — it's a gold call AND an equity-market call, bundled into one figure.

I'm not going to argue the target. Price predictions are the easiest thing to produce in this sector, and the hardest to be held accountable for.

What's worth noticing is the mechanism underneath it. Central banks are accumulating gold because they want a monetary asset that isn't someone else's debt. That's a structural bid — not a sentiment trade.

Structure is the part I work on.

There's a mispricing in this sector that has nothing to do with the gold price. It's in what acquirers actually pay for gold still in the ground.

They pay about $93 USD an ounce. Gross operating margins justify about $729 USD. That's an 87% compression.

That gap doesn't move on anyone's forecast. It's already here — and it's measured.

Is the Dow-to-Gold ratio a genuine signal, or a story we tell ourselves after the fact? Curious how you read it

Goldman Sachs recently revised their forecasts upwards, projecting that central bank purchases will average 60 tonnes a month through 2026, driven by underreported sovereign vault outflows.

UNSW BusinessThink

+3

Key Drivers & Trends

De-dollarization & Sanctions: Emerging market and developing economies are reducing their reliance on U.S. dollar-denominated assets. The 2022 freezing of Russia's Western-held reserves significantly accelerated this trend.

Institutional Resilience: Despite gold trading near record highs, central banks view it as a neutral, indispensable reserve asset that protects against fiscal instability.

Top Buyers: Accumulation is led by emerging market banks, with notable heavy buying from the People's Bank of China, the National Bank of Poland, Türkiye, and the Reserve Bank of India.

World Gold Council

+8

Up-To-Date Data & Discrepancies

Goldman Sachs Estimates: Nowcasting estimates indicate a massive data gap due to unrecorded over-the-counter flows originating in the U.K. (London) vaults. Actual average monthly purchases were revised upward to 50 tonnes and are expected to hit 60 tonnes moving forward.

World Gold Council (WGC): The WGC noted a remarkably strong start to the year, with estimated net purchases of 244 tonnes in the first quarter. This outpaced historical averages despite heightened geopolitical and market turbulence

1. The Death of the "Real" Interest Rate Argument

Traditionally, the mainstream financial consensus states that higher interest rates are bad for gold because gold yields no interest; investors would rather hold yielding Treasury bonds. Schiff’s logic completely upends this:

Negative Real Yields: If nominal interest rates are at 5% but true structural inflation is running closer to 7% or higher, the real interest rate is firmly negative. Investors holding paper bonds are guaranteed to lose purchasing power.

The Flight from Debt: As the total U.S. liability climbs past $150 trillion, the risk of holding long-term paper debt skyrockets. Gold serves as the ultimate beneficiary because it carries zero counterparty or default risk.

2. Forced Fed Intervention (The "Fed Put" for Bonds)

Schiff states that the Federal Reserve cannot allow the bond market to freely crash because the U.S. government cannot afford the interest expense on its debt. Therefore, the Fed must step in to cap yields by launching massive bond-buying programs (Quantitative Easing).

The Ultimate Gold Catalyst: To buy those bonds, the Fed must print trillions of new dollars, expanding the money supply at an accelerating rate. This rapid dilution of the dollar is the exact fuel that drives explosive, parabolic moves in the nominal price of gold. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

3. De-Dollarization by Global Central Banks

One of the most concrete drivers Schiff references is the behavior of foreign central banks.

Central banks see the same structural trap: a runaway debt spiral and an inevitable choice between explicit default or hyper-inflationary devaluation.

As a result, global institutions are actively dumping U.S. Treasuries and diversifying directly into physical gold reserves. This institutional shift replaces paper trust with a tangible asset, creating a massive, relentless floor of physical demand that drives prices structurally higher.

4. The Stagflationary Trap

Schiff's warnings of a weaker economy combined with rising energy and food costs point directly to stagflation (stagnant growth plus high inflation). Historically, stagflationary decades (like the 1970s) are the absolute best-performing environments for precious metals. When equities drop in real terms and cash loses value at the supermarket, capital seeks refuge in hard assets.

Summary of the Mechanism

In Schiff’s view, you shouldn't view gold as becoming "more expensive." Instead, you are witnessing the accelerating devaluation of the denominator (the U.S. dollar). Because gold has a finite structural supply and cannot be printed by a central bank to finance political promises, its price must inevitably adjust upward to reflect the sheer volume of fiat currency being injected into the global financial architecture.

Interesting trip to China? Trump appeared on the backfoot throughout his time in Beijing. He didn't update Truth Social after his initial meeting with Xi — unusual for him — and he was noticeably effusive and deferential throughout. Time

Beijing didn't need big tangible outcomes to achieve major wins. China projected itself as an equal to the US on the global stage, directed the tone of the relationship including around Taiwan, and Trump arrived with a phalanx of top American CEOs who he told Xi were there to "pay their respect" to Xi and to China — a display of deference that Beijing will relish

The visit reinforced several gold-positive dynamics simultaneously:

The de-dollarisation signal deepens. When the US president travels to Beijing with tech billionaires in tow to "pay respect," makes chip concessions, goes quiet on Taiwan arms sales, and comes away with 200 Boeing jets and some agricultural purchases — that's not the posture of a hegemon dictating terms. It's the posture of two roughly equal powers negotiating. That shift in perceived US dominance feeds directly into the long-term gold thesis.

The Taiwan uncertainty has actually increased, not decreased. Trump told reporters he hadn't approved the pending $14 billion Taiwan arms sale — "We're going to see what happens" — calling it "a very good negotiating chip." Using an ally's security as a bargaining chip is precisely the kind of behaviour that erodes confidence in US commitments globally and accelerates the move by other nations away from dollar-denominated security arrangements.

A predictable relationship with the US buys Beijing time to continue its rise across technological, military, and geopolitical fronts — and that's exactly what Xi got from this visit.

The honest bottom line?

The visit was less about any revelation of Chinese infrastructure and more about a broader, visible shift in power dynamics. China got most of what it wanted — stability, time, status, and implicit concessions on its core interests. The US got a Boeing order and some soybeans. Whether Trump personally walked away impressed by Beijing's gleaming streets is almost beside the point — the structural message the world took from the visit was that the centre of gravity in global affairs is shifting East. That is exactly the kind of prolonged, systemic uncertainty that historically sustains multi-year gold bull markets rather than producing short spikes.

Dont take your eyes of this relationship, but I obv believe it is good to great for gold

do your own research of course

the gnome

Yes, Iain Macleod was a great man. As Colonial Secretary he gave independence to our colonies and avoid the problems that the French suffered with colonial wars. If he had lived and remained Chancellor we would probably have avoided the great inflationary bubble of the mid 1970s.

Alisters uncle Ian Macleod ,was chancellor of the exchequer ,would have been in line for PM ,but died in 1970.

In those days there were real politicions ,who resigned if caught in scandal or made diasterous mistake ,unlike theses days.

Looking a t the current state of the world , what with Trumps Operation "Epic Failure" and ongoing wars ,along with market manipulations ,not just by him but pretty much all in any power, the price of Gold and precious metals have taken a drop of the radar for Commodities traders. Though strangely tech and AI , which have no real value apart from bubble buying are doing well, but actually produce little of use.

But all will change when the real inflation kicks in ,with world shortages of pretty much everything , all coming soon to visit you.

Anyway something of interest for all!

"Alister Macleod: Dollar Collapse Accelerating ,Heres what happens Next ", on you tube. Well explained as usual and very interesting,well worth your time.

GLA

There was a time (not so long ago), that you would find argument about govts splashing a $billion or 2...now its a few $trillion....

Well whats 3 orders of magnitude of silly money...?

(Dont get caught holding the silly money as it is going down the toilet very quickly, get into real companies producing real cash flow, for real assets that people and institutions (esp central banks) want)

US Space Force General Michael Guetlein contested a Congressional Budget Office report that estimated the Golden Dome missile defense shield would cost $1.2 trillion over twenty years. (Golden Dome (don't you love Donald T?) ! don't you love gold!?)

The CBO report relied on incomplete information and looked at costly "legacy capabilities" that the current architecture would not rely on, according to Guetlein.

Senator Tim Sheehy agreed with the report that the price tag would likely exceed $1 trillion, saying "If built to the President's vision, as it should be, this will be a multi-trillion dollar project."

Sentaor Sheehy read ... https://hbr.org/2023/11/why-big-projects-fail-and-how-to-give-yours-a-better-chance-of-success

Donald does not read a lot these days .... as nit should be LOL

good luck punters, consider the road investors...

the gold gnome ...

The global financial architecture is undergoing a structural transformation that positions gold to reach $17,250 an ounce as it replaces the U.S. dollar as the "currency of last reserve," according to mining legend Pierre Lassonde.

Well nothing new here, except the predicted POG has gone up a bit!!! Really.... why would you believe anything the governments (and we won't name the President) said? Australia's government has just renegged on most of their election promises, changing taxation rules...for reasons that are not too much more than "We thought it fitted with our ideology" The interesting thing is that no one in the government has had a real job in the real world, nor does anyone have a science or engineering dergree (so what?). So you ask whats left to base your idelogies on. The answer of course is: OUR IDEOLOGIES.

You know that what happens when a battery is near the end of its life, is that it has a few energy spurts or releases, before sinking deeper into the abyss .... and then finally the lights go out.

Good night and good luck ....

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists." — Ernest Hemingway

Thanks to the fiat currency system, governments at war can tap into a nation’s savings by financing conflict through currency debasement. Under a gold standard, governments had to have the gold or impose taxes if they wanted the funds to prosecute a war. When the gold ran out, the war stopped. But not in a fiat currency system. They can continue debasing the currency until they hyperinflate it.

That’s why there’s a simple equation you should sear into your memory:

War = Inflation

The historical pattern is clear.

If the first casualty of war is truth, the second casualty is the currency.

For example, the US money supply (M2) more than doubled during World War I and about tripled during World War II.

During Vietnam, the money supply rose roughly 90%, and during the 2003 Iraq War era, it rose about 65%.

War is expensive. The US government often ends up financing it by going deeper into debt and debasing the currency to service that debt.

How much will the war in Iran cost? Nobody knows the exact amount, but I am confident it will result in meaningful currency debasement.

According to the Iran War Cost Tracker, the conflict has cost at least $74 billion so far. Other estimates, such as those from CSIS, put the cost at around $2 billion per day. But these estimates almost certainly understate the true direct costs, not to mention the indirect costs of the war.

Further, the Pentagon is now asking for an additional $200 billion in emergency war funding. And that is on top of its recent request for a 50% budget increase to $1.5 trillion.

Lastly, it’s worth noting that recently Iran destroyed at least one E-3G "Sentry" Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft in Saudi Arabia, along with 2 or 3 KC-135 tanker aircraft in the same strike.

This marked the first combat loss of an E-3 in history. Each unit costs at least $540 million.

After the strike, the US likely has only around 8 operational E-3s left, with none currently in production. It remains one of the most important aircraft in the US Air Force.

A cheap Iranian Shahed-136 drone, costing roughly $7,000 per unit, was what took out the $540 million E-3. That works out to a cost asymmetry of roughly 77,286 to 1 in this strike, which has to be a record, or close to it, for the biggest cost asymmetry in a single military strike.

If the war drags on for a few more weeks and Hormuz remains closed, I think we will see an economic collapse far larger than the one caused by the global lockdowns during the Covid mass psychosis. In response to that slowdown, the US government went on its biggest money-printing binge in history and increased the money supply by 40% in a matter of months. I expect significant economic disruption

Microft's new datacentre in Kenya? The site is not open, despite a promise to have the first 100 megawatts up and running by around this month. In a recent speech, Kenyan president William Ruto made it seem that he only recently learned how much energy the facility required. “We would need to switch off half the country for the data center to be powered,” he said at an event in Nairobi. You might think things (not just the market) have got a bit ahead of themselves? LOL

Forgot how much power the datacentres need? The quality of the power? Make haste and a whole lot of waste, and the house of cards comes tumbling down...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLEnn-sgpIk&t=71s

The Rally in Context (+$10 trillion in 30 days!)

The Nasdaq Composite was under pressure in the first three months of 2026, losing about 7% of its value before staging a strong comeback in April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 surged +15.7% in April alone — its best monthly performance in more than 23 years (since October 2002)... an enormous amount of market value was recovered and added in a very short window.

Is It Based on Current or Future Earnings?

Primarily future earnings — but with unusually strong current earnings providing genuine support.

The 2026 Nasdaq rally reflects a repricing of future earnings, not only a short-term move in technology shares. AI spending must convert into revenue, margins, and free cash flow to support higher valuations.

That said, current earnings have been remarkably good. 50 out of 53 Nasdaq-100 companies that have reported Q1 2026 results beat EPS expectations by an average of 16%, with an index-level earnings growth rate of 51% — versus an expected 22%. That's a massive beat. Nasdaq

The key drivers of current earnings strength: Nvidia is expected to deliver a 74% surge in earnings this year. Broadcom and Micron Technology are also anticipating significant increases in sales driven by AI chip demand. Palantir reported $4.48 billion in revenue in 2025 (+56% over 2024), and is guiding for 61% growth this year.

What Do the P/E Ratios Look Like?

As of January 1, 2026, the Nasdaq-100 had a trailing P/E of 32.32 and a forward P/E of 27.44. After the April rally to new all-time highs, those multiples have expanded. The Nasdaq-100 trailing P/E as of May 8, 2026 sits at 38.15 — near its record high of 38.57, well above the historical median of 24.49. Siblis ResearchGuruFocus

So in simple terms: the price surge has pushed valuations to near-record levels, meaning investors are paying a very high price relative to today's earnings and betting heavily on future growth.

The Nasdaq-100's trailing P/E of ~38× is higher than its forward P/E of ~28× — meaning investors are paying a big premium today, betting that AI earnings will grow significantly to justify the price. The market is asking you to trust the future.

AngloGold is the opposite. Its 2024 actual P/E was 26×, but the 2025 estimated P/E drops to ~11.6×, and the 2026 estimated P/E falls further to ~10.9× — a dramatic compression as soaring gold prices feed directly into earnings. The current trailing P/E sits around 21–22×, but the forward P/E is just ~9.65×

future p/e 29 in the AI dream machine or 9.5 at Anglo?

$10,000 Gold by 2030? Laurent Lequeu on the Commodity Supercycle

https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/21645/10000-gold-2030-laurent-lequeu-commodity-supercycle

The Macro Butler joins FS Insider for a deep dive into the great global decoupling already underway between China and the West — and why investors are massively underestimating its inflationary consequences. From semiconductors becoming the new strategic commodity controlled by only a handful of players, to the ongoing supercycle in oil, copper, nickel, wheat, gold and critical resources, this discussion explores why the next decade will be defined by supply shortages

During Q1 2026, the Company published the Technical Report

Summary on the Pre-Feasibility Study for the Arthur Gold Project

in Nevada(5). The study declared an initial Probable Mineral

Reserve of 4.9Moz of gold (88Mt at 1.75g/t), establishing the

project as a cornerstone of the Company’s US growth

platform(5)(6)

.

“The exceptional economics detailed in the pre-feasibility study

firmly establish the Arthur Gold Project as the cornerstone of our

US growth platform,” said CEO Alberto Calderon. “Generating an

after-tax NPV of up to $3.46bn at a gold price of $3,500/oz with

an IRR up to 26%, this project pairs immediate scale with

outstanding financial returns. With a world-class oxide orebody,

minimal technical risk, and a disciplined capital approach, we

have a clear roadmap to driving immense long-term shareholder

value in a premier mining jurisdiction.”

The project demonstrates highly competitive economics and

exceptional leverage to the gold price. At a $2,715/oz gold price,

the project generates an estimated after-tax NPV (at a 5%

discount rate) of $1.73bn to $1.78bn with an IRR of 15% to 19%.

At a $3,500/oz gold price, the estimated after-tax NPV roughly

doubles to $3.41bn to $3.46bn, driving the IRR up to 22% to

26%. AT $5,000 PER OUNCE..GENERATES A NPV OF ....

The operation is modelled to deliver an average annual

production of approximately 500,000oz over an initial 9-year life

of mine at a competitive life-of-mine AISC* of $925/oz-

$975/ oz

(5)(6)(7). Because the Merlin reserve is predominantly

oxide material (greater than 95%) amenable to conventional

processing, the project is expected to avoid the complexity and

technical risk of refractory processing. Feasibility-level

environmental, hydrological and community baseline studies are

already underway

Gold prices trade above $4,700 a troy ounce, supported by central-bank buying and as investors monitor Middle East developments. “Gold’s resilience during a period of exceptional equity-market strength points to continued central-bank demand, as well as lingering investor unease over inflation, economic growth and mounting fiscal debt concerns,” analysts at Saxo Bank say. Futures in New York rise 0.1% to $4,715.20 a troy ounce and are on track for a weekly gain of 1.5%.

I'll read through that later. I'm happy enough with the dividend for the first one of the year. Hopefully more to come in another 3 months.

Beautiful set of numbers

Free cash flow*, the strongest for a single quarter, represented a

190% increase year-on-year to $1.2bn in Q1 2026 from $403m in

Q1 2025.

Net cash flow from operating activities was up 136%

year-on-year to $1.7bn in Q1 2026 (from $725m in Q1 2025). The

average gold price received per ounce*(1) in Q1 2026 was 69%

higher year-on-year compared to Q1 2025.

EBITDA*(4) increased 130% year-on-year to $2.3bn in Q1 2026

(from $1.0bn in Q1 2025), while headline earnings(3) rose 187%

to $1.3bn in Q1 2026, or 252 US cents per share (from $447m, or

88 US cents per share, in Q1 2025).

In line with the Company’s dividend policy, the base dividend of

$63m or 12.5 US cents per share was declared for Q1 2026. This

was topped up to 50% of free cash flow*, to arrive at the interim

dividend declaration of $585m, or 116 US cents per share.

The balance sheet continued to strengthen, swinging from $755m

of net debt*(4) in Q1 2025 to $868m of net cash*(4) at the end of

Q1 2026, all while making a series of record dividend payments

in the intervening quarters.

The strategic decision by the Board to approve a proposed $2bn

share repurchase programme is underpinned by stronger cash

generation capabilities and the prospective financial outlook for

the business. The proposed share repurchase programme is

intended to offer another vector for shareholder returns, and align

the Company’s capital return framework with its North American

peers. The proposed share repurchase programme reflects

AngloGold Ashanti’s disciplined approach to capital allocation,

utilising excess liquidity to reduce ordinary shares in issue

thereby increasi

I DONT MIND BEING A LONG TERM SHAREHOLDER...

The gnome

AngloGold Ashanti delivers record free cash flow* of $1.2bn

and EBITDA*(4) of $2.3bn • Gold production(1)(2) +1% • Net cash*(4)

of $868m • Q1 2026 interim dividend of $585m, or 116 cps

• Proposed $2.0bn share repurchase programme announced

https://thevault.exchange/?get_group_doc=143/1778224657-Q12026-EarningsReleaseReport.pdf

It’s not just you. I remember this happened not long ago and seemed to take over a week to get sorted. So you might want to keep an eye on the share price elsewhere. ADVFN is stable and displaying the correct share price

For the last few days --the displayed price on here seems to be stuck on 93.54 ????? Is it showing the same for everyone? Is there a glitch?

Historically gold tends to be weaker or sideways March to June with renewed buying in the Early autumn so our share price will drift accordingly until late summer.

Its going to be an interesting year once inflation starts feeding in.

Central banks have two options and we all know which one they will take.

The government can't afford the other.

Now able to trade again, bought a few more Suncor shares, a Canadian shale oil company. I am a bit nervous about buying more gold miners until I see a sustained up tick in the price of Gold in US dollars.

I can't trade with Barclays this morning because of an outage on their 'smart' app, a bit annoying. Last year very good for gold and other precious metal miners, this year not so good. I am tending to buy more energy related stocks this year.

So if its not the pollies trading shares its now the nations trading gold !

Unlike Germany, the Bank of France did not try to raise the issue of withdrawal or transfer of their gold. Instead, they simply sold the older, less pure gold bars in New York for what they were worth in U.S. dollars as gold prices were reaching all-time highs, then pocketed the cash and bought bars that met their updated weight and purity standards in Europe, as prices conveniently pulled back. This exceptional foreign exchange income totalled EUR 11 billion for 2025!!!

This resulted in a win-win-win for France’s central bank: No diplomatic pushback from the U.S. administration during a period of contentious relations over tariffs, Greenland, Ukraine, and now Iran, no fees for transportation and security across the Atlantic, and what worked out to a massive profit on the transactions themselves, boosting the Bank’s overall financial position.

Germany has been trying to get all its gold out of the US vaults (if indeed its there LOL) ...so now they know how to do it...go the French!

Our dopey government sold most of our gold reserves decades ago ...In 1997, then-Treasurer Peter Costello (world greatest treasurer LOL) authorized the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to sell 167 tonnes of Australia's gold reserves—roughly two-thirds of the total—for approximately AUD 2.4 billion! The sale was justified by arguing that gold was a non-yielding asset with a diminished role in the modern financial system. Its only worth $AUD $33.88 billion now...and he knew what?

US$6,000 gold is still on the horizon, according to Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GLDAX) at Gabelli Funds. JP MOrgan has raised its long-term forecast, specifically targeting US$6,300/oz by year-end 2026. In the short term manipulation maintains its run ... Exchange-traded derivatives in gold typically maintain margin requirements around 5-10% of contract value, creating leverage ratios between 10:1 and 20:1. This means relatively small capital deployments can control substantially larger notional positions...and as gold goes up or down so does Au ...so its an easy way to play the system.

Hard to find an honest man these days?

It was recently pointed out to me by some sharpies"", that it seems to be "Follow the politician" is the way to get ahead in the US stock picking "... LOL

Nancy Pelosi (D-CA): Often considered the most high-profile example, her portfolio (managed by her husband, Paul Pelosi) saw massive gains. In 2024, her portfolio was up 70.9%—nearly tripling the S&P 500’s return. This followed a 65.5% return in 2023. Her gains are heavily attributed to well-timed, leveraged call options on mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Other Notable Names: Lawmakers like Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Kevin Hern (R-OK), and Lois Frankel (D-FL) are frequently highlighted for active trading styles, high volumes of transactions, and substantial yearly returns.

and guys with a lot on their plates ...

Rep. Rohit "Ro" Khanna (D-CA)

• The Committee: House Armed Services Committee.

• The Trades: Active trading in major defense contractors, including General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Raytheon / RTX (RTX).

• The Overlap: The House Armed Services Committee oversees the Department of Defense (DoD) budget, military acquisitions, and major defense contracts.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL)

• The Committee: Senate Armed Services Committee.

• The Trades: Extensive trading in defense, cybersecurity, and tech infrastructure companies. Notable trades include options and stock purchases in Microsoft (MSFT) and Humana (HUM).

• The Overlap: Tuberville sits on the committee that directly reviews military infrastructure, cybersecurity contracts (like the multi-billion dollar DoD cloud contracts awarded to Microsoft), and veterans' healthcare.

The most prominent data on this topic comes from the financial tracking platform Unusual Whales, which publishes an annual Congressional Trading Report.

and if you are into AI, this is accessible...

Been going on in the UK reportedly for 110+ years ... Senior ministers (including David Lloyd George and Rufus Isaacs) were accused of buying shares using knowledge of an upcoming government contract. The allegation: they knew the government would award a lucrative deal and traded ahead of it.

It caused a major political crisis, though it did not lead to criminal convictions (never does of course)

I guess its all just happy coincidences ... but the Epstein affair seemed interesting?

Funny ol world eh?

The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, on the way toward breaking the record set in the wake of World War II.

As of March 31, the country’s publicly held debt was $31.265 trillion, while GDP over the preceding year was $31.216 trillion, according to data released Thursday

The government is spending $1.33 for every dollar it collects in revenue, and the budget deficit this year is projected at $1.9 trillion. That is little changed from 2025 as Republicans’ tax cuts kick in before their spending cuts take effect. The final tally will depend on Iran war spending, tariff refunds and the strength of the economy.

Still, the triple-digit mark is a potent symbol of the fiscal stresses on the U.S. that have been building for decades. Lawmakers in both parties have expressed alarm but given priority to tax cuts and spending increases with clearer short-term political benefits.

The government also becomes more sensitive to interest rates as debt grows. One in seven dollars of federal spending now goes to interest. A 0.1 percentage-point interest-rate increase would cost $379 billion over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

This is a country which has the most expensive health system in the world, and also one of the worst. A country which is run by the military but preaches democracy. The most invasions, wars ... etc

Good for gold...

Another good day soaking up the loose shares, +3.0 % , so thats +6.4% plus a divvy to come ... I like to buy in the volatile times ...

Maintain the Right Temperament

Stay Calm and Ignore the Noise: Buffett, 95 as of 2026, often advises disregarding short-term market fluctuations. "An unsettled mind will not make good decisions," he has written.

View Volatility as an Ally: Instead of panicking during a crash, view it as a "sale" on high-quality businesses.

Control Your Emotions: The key to investing is not intellect, but controlling your temperament to avoid being swept up in fear or greed.

Invest in Quality and Value

Be Greedy When Others are Fearful: The best time to buy is when panic pushes prices below their intrinsic value.

Buy "Wonderful" Companies: Focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages, high pricing power, and good management.

Circle of Competence: Only invest in businesses you understand.

Focus on Business Value, Not Stock Price: Think like a business owner, not a trader. If the business is fundamentally strong, a price drop is noise

good investing and picking up on the fear factor

Not trying to time the market, but play a long game, but its nice to make 3.4% in a few days ... but I wont be selling ...

Some very interesting discussion with a lot of interest in gold prices and east v west.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGD-tpYi1CQ

The Chinese interest (has been for millenia) in gold is a lot more than is reported, but there are some excellent signs.

The realisation of the fragility and lack of trust in the US paper markets, and reversion to real physical markets is with us now.

Since 2009, the TMS money supply is now up by more than 206 percent! (M2 has grown by more than 160 percent in that period.) Out of the current money supply of $20.4 trillion, nearly 30 percent of that has been created since January 2020. Since 2009, in the wake of the global financial crisis, more than $14 trillion of the current money supply has been created. In other words, more than two-thirds of the total existing money supply have been created since the Great Recession?

Given current weak economic conditions, it is surprising to see such robust growth in the money supply. For example, the estimate for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was recently downgraded to 0.5 percent, which is decidely ugly. And job growth since late 2025 has been either weak or negative, depending on which measure of employment we use (they grow by the day of course). The Fed now concludes that job growth going into 2026 is essentially zero (so of course we need a new Head of the Fed). This is likely reflected in the fact that consumer confidence has apparently fallen to a multi-decade low.

Given all this, we would not expect to see such robust growth in the money supply. Private commercial banks play a large role in growing the money supply in response to loose Fed policy (business is business). When economic conditions are expansive, and as employment grows, lending also grows, further loosening monetary conditions. But when economic conditions are weak, we’d expect to see less lending and bank-fueled monetary growth.

So, we should expect to see downward pressure on money supply growth given current economic conditions. However, in an effort to further pump asset prices and somehow counter our growing economic stagnation, the Fed again ratcheted up Fed Treasury purchases—paid with newly created money—and even lowered the target policy interest rate again in December.

This continuation of accommodative monetary policy—which belies Fed claims of “restrictive” policy—has surely done its part in returning the money supply to growth levels we haven’t seen in years, and on the show goes. The lunatics are having a party.

The delays and cost of exploration in Australia is now prohibitive. You have to get anthropological clearance, environmental clearance, archeological clearance and then negotiate with a anthropologist who represents a Land Council, and then negotiate with lawyers of the Land Council to derive a Native Title Agreement, which then has to be signed off on by the Land Council and thats after you have negotiated a sign on fee ($x00,000), annual payments ... , then you have to have site visits, and you have to take a group of men on one clearance visit, and then a group of women on another clearance visit and so on and so forth. So the delays can range in the years, and the costs before you tread on the ground can easily exceed $250,000 (bear in mind that to keep the lights on only in Australia for a Junior company is now $600-700, 000 per year, so thats about $2,600 per day for lights on!! so a delay for a year is a cost of $650,000)... So all this before you embark on a venture which has a 99% rate of commercial failure, like greenfields exploration? Rather go to the casino, or have a bet on who will kick the first goal in a game of football ....

I do not invest in greenfields exploration ....I am over it ...

the gnome

$7 billion. Zero discoveries.

In 2025, the global gold industry spent a record US$6.2 billion on exploration — more than any other metal, by a wide margin.

It found nothing new.

Not "fewer than expected." Not "smaller than hoped." Zero genuinely new 2+ million-ounce deposits in 2023 or 2024 — back-to-back years, a first in the modern record. The 2025 discovery tally has not yet been published by S&P. Based on the grassroots spending data, no one is holding their breath.

Here's what actually happened with the money:

→ 45% went to near-mine drilling — record high. Extending existing mines. → 21% went to grassroots exploration — all-time low. The work that actually finds new deposits. → The rest went to mid-stage work on deposits already found decades ago.

The industry is spending more on gold exploration than ever — and allocating less to actually finding gold than at any point in history.

What are the consequences?

Average discovery size has dropped from 7.7 million ounces (2010s) to 4.4 million (2020–2024). No discovery in the past ten years ranks in the top 30 of all time. The supergiant era — deposits of 50 Moz+ — is over. One per decade from the 1970s through the 1990s. Zero since 2000.

Meanwhile, Newmont — the world's largest gold miner — reported its 2025 reserves at 118.2 Moz. Down from 134.1 Moz the prior year. Mining depleted 7.2 Moz. Replacements — mostly reclassifying ounces they already had on the books — totaled 2.0 Moz. Replacement ratio: 0.28×.

The world's largest gold miner is running out of gold.

They have two choices. Drill harder (average discovery-to-production timeline: 16 years). Or acquire someone who already has it.

Every major is looking at the same math. They will all be shopping in the same small pool.

That's the structural pressure behind acquisition pricing right now.

Its important to realise that the "GOLD discovery" collapse (SUPPLY SIDE) is a permanent structural condition, not a cyclical one subject to technological rescue, by AI or some new technology to be invented sometime in the future.

The reasons are geological, economic, and institutional, and they compound each other!

Geologically, the accessible, high-grade or even low-grade, near-surface gold endowment of the Earth's crust has been systematically found over roughly 150 years of industrial exploration, not to mention 1000's of years of human exploration. What remains are deeper, lower grade, under thick cover sequences, in geologically complex settings, or in politically unstable jurisdictions. No technology changes the geology. The gold that was easy to find has been found.

Economically, the capital structure of the mining industry has permanently shifted away from the long-duration, high-risk, zero-revenue exploration model that produced the great discoveries of the 1980s and 1990s (this was self perpetuating as discoveries led to more money to go out and make more discoveries BUT NOW WE HAVE A DEARTH OF DISOCVERIES). Institutional investors demand returns on 3–5 year horizons. Grassroots exploration produces nothing on that timeline. The junior explorer model — which actually generated most major discoveries historically — depends on equity capital markets that have structurally retreated from early-stage resource risk. Higher gold prices help at the margin, but they have not reversed this since 2020, and there is no reason to think they will. The Junior explorers are mostly intellectually bankrupt, and many are just lifestyle companies.

Institutionally, permitting timelines in virtually every stable jurisdiction have lengthened, not shortened, over the past two decades. Environmental and social licence requirements have become more complex. Indigenous consultation obligations, while entirely legitimate, add years to project timelines. The result is that even the depleted pipeline of known but undeveloped deposits faces a development bottleneck that is entirely separate from the discovery problem.

The 16–21 year discovery-to-production lag means these three structural forces are already baked into supply trajectories through the late 2030s with essentially no possibility of relief. The supply of newly mined gold will begin a structural decline after the current production plateau ends — which S&P Global projects begins around 2026–2028 — and nothing in the current exploration, technology, or capital environment changes that trajectory in any meaningful way.

The honest position is the gold discovery era is effectively over for large, tier-one deposits in accessible settings. What remains will be found slowly, expensively, at depth, with enormous capital requirements and decades-long development timelines. The structural supply constraint is permanent on any horizon that matters to investors, central banks, or policymakers today