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I have 5 or 6 different gold miners in my portfolio. None of them are really responding to the increase in the pog. So this isnt on its own. Was hoping a few of them would multibag but there you go. Looks like theyre still gonna keep me waiting
really need some good news on this share, losses to big at the moment for me
pog still heading north,currently 1533 oz.sooner we get these mines open the better.
You have to imagine operations will recommence soon. Given lives are at stake, I'm sure they won't rush, but hopefully its not a long process.
We should (for a change) begin to enter a period of positive news flow - with news of the mines reopening following their unfortunate closures, followed by an acknowledgement of the impact of the continuing increase in the price of gold on the remainder of the shortfall (though I believe the MAPA loan will be extended by ASO's billionaire owner to wipe out any shortfall). Any impact of the closures on guidance might be buried within those, though hopefully it should just take output to the lower side of the revised guidance of 180-200k.
Gold up another $16/oz today - 99.9% of miners are soaring. Value gaps will be a temporary inefficiency - and it seems that only once the market has its hand held and the impact of gold being about $250/oz more now than it was a couple months ago, will it hit home. GL to all investors - even more luck to anyone daring to short this minuscule free float.
Apparently "Serhan Umurhan, the company CEO, is currently travelling to Youga with the General Manager of the Mine to assess the situation and determine when operations can re-commence."
So hopefully things have calmed and will reopen soon. Sad to hear about the death.
The funny thing is - the current market cap is far less than what the Youga mine alone was acquired for! Since then additional reserves have been proven up. And Mr MNG took that consideration mostly in the form of ASO shares, at £2 each! Anyone who thinks he is going to dilute the company at a 75% haircut to where he saw value little over a year ago, just to cover a couple million shortfall (which I think will be disappeared by now given the continued movement in the Gold price), is crazy.
The free float here is tiny. That has been a double edged sword as there is literally so little stock around, a few buys/sells in either direction can lead to an exacerbated move. Given the nature of much of the newsflow YTD, these have been mostly sells and have been pronounced in hammering the share down from the £2.40 it was a year ago today.
ASO charted against gold shows an exceptionally wide divergence. That gap will narrow, and with gold forecast to continue to go from strength to strength, I think that sees ASO go on a tear.
At one stage there were rumours it might be taken private but I think that was in the first 12 months of Mr MNG taking over. What the situation now is I dont know in terms of going private I mean. Very few shares are in private hands also so I dont know where all the selling pressure comes from but lets hope the Country doesn't descend into civil war.
George, this has been a tremendously unlucky share and seems about all that could go wrong, has gone wrong. However, people are failing to appreciate that all these interruptions have occurred against a backdrop of aggressive cost cutting, increased reserves across both sites, and crucially, a MAJOR breakout in the price of gold!
It's primarily fallen due to the company announcing a funding shortfall. At $1,400 gold we were told that the funding shortfall would be equivalent to approximately the size of the related party loan due to be paid back in 2019. People are not seeing that this loan is from MAPA, a company owned by the billionaire owner (shares now given to son) of ASO! He has a 70% holding here, and is a billionaire. He will not ruin his own company demanding repayment!
I do not know, how people do not see that. The company has also had no issues in obtaining loans from the family before, and any excess shortfall caused by ongoing production disappointments, will also likely be bankrolled. What are they going to do - place or give away their vast holding at all time lows? Not a chance. The ore is in the ground, and the fact is any delay at the moment is being more than compensated by gold going up and up, so when it comes out of the ground in the end it will be at a far superior margin!
Serious opportunity here for those able to command some basic research, and buy the dips IMO.
I agree with the sentiments of itsagame. Not sure a compensation package would be the right message, as it could also encourage future lone ranger incidents to potentially secure money for their families. Unfortunately, the situation in BF is pretty dire and according to the WFP - the country is dealing with an unfolding humanitarian crisis resulting from a sharp increase in armed violence. The violence has been forcing people to flee, and the WFP are there trying to find solutions over the coming days.
For ASO, the contractor switch has probably saved them to ensure operations return to normal once security is no longer compromised. Staff will be eager to return to work as without work, they are not getting paid. I expect this to be a minimal shutdown, purely enough time to enable the company to adequately secure the site as any further incidents (which may cause harm to staff) could create a raft of legal cases for neglect / failure to secure the safety of workers etc.
Payouts don’t work, and it’s a hard ball to stop when payouts start rolling.
If they pay out The family then yea the family might might not retaliate but the cousins, friends, other people surrounding the area will still want “revenge” it’s human nature, and if you compensate people who get hurt when they brake the law then some others could then see it as a way of making money and potentially insight violence for their own gain.
in reality why should the company compensate the family of someone who broke the law - stealing / threatening / violence / damage to property / trespass etc etc. If they weren’t braking the law they wouldn’t have been there to get hurt.
an extreme response but it could have saved other staff members lives, we were told they were armed so it Could have gone the other way, depending on how it played out the security staff members actions could have been seen as “heroic” by some.
We will only ever know part of the story but It’s a shame that greed has claimed another victim and will haunt many others on both sides for the rest of their lives.
Similar scenarios have started many conflicts in history around the world and many have lasted decades, long term making payouts made little difference, only time does.
Let's hope SU has managed to calm the situation and everyone is back at work. Also should ASO give a donation to the family of the man who was shot dead?
Very tempting to top up AGAIN on Monday. Ive been in this for a number of years though now and all Ive ever done is average down, always thinking the bottom was in. Last top up was at 94p when pog was sub $1300 but with gold now at $1500 its beckoning again. Feel a bit like a fly caught in a spiders web. This has to be one of the unluckiest company's ever with all the problems its had.
Agreed with you MikG, but it's just what the market seems to do nowadays. Hammer stocks to new lows in the slightest whiff of bad news.
Not deramping. If I wanted to get out, I couldn't. Not an easy stock to sell any volume.
It seems like there’s a lot of tension on the ground, and the circumstances leading to the shut down are very sad. From the ASO perspective, coupled with the NL shut down, it’s another unfortunate disruption. However, like the NL closure, it’s hard to imagine the closure being a prolonged move. These workers are now on a contracted basis, meaning no work = no pay, and I would imagine they’d be eager to return to work as soon as possible. Perhaps as well as cost savings, management was already having issues with the labour force, hence the transition to the contractual basis.
What is this realistically being priced for? I mean even at a downgraded 180k oz produced of gold, now at $1,500oz, this is being priced lighter than some junior exploration companies who have nothing but a pipe dream of ever producing. I’d love to know the rationale of anyone who thinks that a retest of the lows is just with that production level, and now enhanced reserves, in spite of the seeming problem after problem. All IMO.
Sad news that last nights insurgence was the result of a death. Hopefully SU can calm the waters and ease tensions among the local populace. However, it could be that the Company's cost cutting initiative, whereby the workforce has been contracted out, has come back to bite them? A tad insensitive to talk about SP following the death, but with the mine shut, new lows may be tested?
Unbelievable after this week
So One mine is shut due to flooding and another due to a security breach of which I can find no previous mention in yesterdays RNS ??
You spoke to soon.
“Further to the announcement on 8 August 2019 regarding a security breach at the Company's Youga Gold Mine in Burkina Faso (the "Youga Mine"), Avesoro Resources has conducted an updated risk assessment of the situation and has taken the decision to suspend all processing and mining operations at the Mine for the present time.
Serhan Umurhan, the Company CEO, is currently travelling to Youga with the General Manager of the Mine to assess the situation and determine when operations can re-commence. In the meantime, as a precaution, all Company staff at Youga have been relocated to Ouagadougou. Government security forces will remain on site to protect the Company's assets.
The Company will provide a further update in due course.
”
Glad the Management and workforce have got their priorities right and continued with production whilst an armed raid was being carried out on the worksite.
If that had been in the UK, production would have stopped immediately and the plant shutdown for a minimum six months whilst an investigation was carried out into how and why it happened. What lessons could be learnt and how could they do things better in the future.
Lol
they clearly flushed out stop orders!
Should be investigated for sure IMO bet theres lot folks get home and look to see their holding sold!
Absolutely unbelievable start to the day... Money to be made surely?
Dead cat bounce ??
looks like mms tripped all the stop losses! shame for some when they realise
Yes, somebody has been in the know and offloading slowly since the 90's level. Hopefully, current POG will allow SP to recover fairly quickly.
Blue finish.