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Norway Nell, DvH et al - nothing wrong with your arguments and points. We already know that JT has turned down one offer from Glencore previously and that whatever one’s view of him, he has a fair history of mercurial dealmaking (African Diamonds etc). Furthermore Glen are awash with cash as witnessed by their almost daily acquisitions of own shares recently - for £millions and millions. Arkle is back-pocket cash even at 10-20x today’s mcap. That said my own fear is that Glen aren’t daft either, and we end up with a situation (eg like at Ithaca a few years ago) where minority shareholders were forced to accept an offer way below true value (albeit still v profitable for most). I just hope that Jonno gets his dealmaking trousers on the right way round here.
Whilst the numbers here are unlikely to be a sell on valve, it doesn't change the fact that based on today's price we are looking at £120M+ profit.
I agree, i expect a 8-12% sale price vs asset value, would be what the target is. £10M would see a lovely SP of circa 10X
The biggest variable will be if this extends west.....this far it suggests it is possible, then add that extension as additional asset value.....easy to add another 1Mt to the calculations
The point if the calculations are to show the disconnect between SP and what is proven in the ground already.....not what's coming
$15m = £13m
Divide by 345m shares = 3.7p per share!
That's a premium of over 650% of current SP!!!!!
Still far too little but come on market/Pi's get with it!
GL.
I doubt we will ever see anything like those values sadly - and here is why: if you were Glencore, and we held out for silly money what would you do? I would buy G11 (since they must do that to get control of the asset) then i would announce a $100m work program and there is no way we could finance our share, so we would be diluted to death. Of course the risk to Glencore is that a mid sized player or fund buys Arkle and can fund their share of future drilling. So, on the basis of that, i expect Glencore will make an offer for our share but it will likely be for a low amount, say $10-20m, just to simplify their ownership when they take over G11. I sincerely hope that Teeling is preparing for such possibilities, and if we see another major take a share of Arkle in another placing then I will mortgage the house to buy as much as I can here because it is an auction with Glencore and one other deep pocket (which can afford a cash share of major drilling) which is the only way we will see anything resembling a % of the value here for current shareholders. Would love to hear other (ideally different) reasoned views.
Nice reminder Gino of the potential value of Stonepark. What is our mcap? lol
top post gino. no brainer really , glta
Some positive news on the back of this rise would be most welcome!
Come on Glencore where's my xmas present LOL!
The low valuation here is just madness. (despite Teeling)
GL.
ARK moving up very quickly on small volume!
Actual Values:
5.1MT = 8.7% Zinc (440kT) & 2.6% Lead (133kT)
Our 23.44% Share = Zinc 103.1kT & Lead 31.2kT
88% Zinc Recovery = 90.73kT
80% Lead Recovery = 24.96kT
* Updated for todays metal prices*
Zn $2850 p/T = c$260M
Pb $2050 p/T = c$51M
Say c$290M
Processing cost of US$21.25/t
Mining cost of US$46.50/t
These costs are based on Jan 2021 so add 15% for inflation and current price increases => c$80
1.195MT (23.44% of 5.1MT) pay material
Multiplied by $80 p/T combined costs
= c$95M
So....$290M - $90M = c$200M (£170M)
Irish corporate tax is 25% of the £170M = £127.5M clear.
We are valued about 2% of what is profit in the ground proven..........madness
Never mind if it's extended with these recent drills.
Easy buy tbh
Remember what happened to minco !
They were next door.
My views about Teeling are well known but what we do have is a potential high grade zinc/lead system within the Stonepark licence area (inferred resource of 5.1 million tonnes of 8.7% zinc and 2.6% lead (11.3% combined)). More importantly Group 11 are/have been overseeing the latest drilling programme and the latest drilling results give great cause for hope that they will find more of the same as we explore the area further (16 June RNS: John Teeling commented: "This is the first time that drilling at Stonepark has found the fault system which is a vital part of Irish zinc discoveries. It is very big with traces of zinc. This might well be the best target discovered on the block). The first hole has been drilled with 3 more identified/planned to commence shortly. All we need Teeling to do is nod in the right places when G11/Glencore come knocking on the door with an offer to buy our share of the asset....
Oh i do hope so! I have 3.5m of these which i would like at least 5p for sometime in my lifetime. Then that 175k will go straight into a couple of other oil and gas projects which interest me. Certainly the sooner i can get away from the idiot teeling the happier i will be. Thanks be to God that G11 are the main players here, teeling seems to be as utterly hopeless as mick billing was at thor.
Leaky leaky??
Latest buy not currently showing....
Can sell 1M at 0.41p (2.6M at 0.38p) pre NT on both. Any buys almost at full ask (0.495p). It's been a while since the MMs were prepared to take big chunks of shares!
40% spread though haha shocking
Nice to see a few 'bargain hunters' seeing value of shares at this SP. Let's hope that we are all rewarded with an imminent sale of our share of Stonepark....
by the company (Teeling!) is awful imo. For example what is happening with our 3 Zimbabwe lithium licenses (RNS 23 June) or 'a specific exploration opportunity in another jurisdiction' (RNS 30 June)?
Thank goodness we have Group 11 overseeing the Stonepark drilling!
What is Teeling doing atm to earn his remuneration? Mcap £1.3M ffs....
* Sell the Zinc
Mightily frustrating SP. I think the drift is largely the delay on the gold projects. I think MrT will look to sell it when the current planned ( largely paid for) drill results r known.
V Painful watching n waiting I agree.
Ah, good point re: warrants. Maybe we can 'survive' until the sale of our share of Stonepark lol
DVH while I don't disagree with you or with Cliveas, there have been a couple of meaty warrant exercises this year so far (£200k+) so given the low overhead burn I doubt there's much need for new cash unless for something specific.
That said, the Group 11 share price has been drifting south too in recent weeks, which makes me wonder if all is ok at Stonepark (or people just getting bored with it all in crappy markets).
But... Mcap under £1.5m is ridiculous!
Now valued at less than a shell company!
Surely somebody wants 23% [ including metal royalties] of a massive zinc project????
Crazy just crazy!
GL.
Just sent (another) email to Teeling expressing my dissatisfaction about the running of this company. Not expecting any response!
Cliveas, the company value is sinking fast. Down another 11% today. Mcap now a measly £1.3M!! Looking at the accounts and the last placing, we must be running on fumes and where is Teeling going to get additional funds with the SP so low to, for example, pay for our share of the planned extra (one hole) drilling at Stonepark (current programme fully funded)? The company was established in 2004 by Teeling & Finn with the the 'focus on creating shareholder value through gold & zinc exploration & resource development in Ireland'
I didn't know they were comedians as well....
As I said the company, 18 YEARS later, is now worth £1.3M. Teeling is a disaster for shareholders!! Just sell the company and lets all move on...