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Poorinvestor you're missing the nuance in what is being said. I don't think anyone here really believes BTC is going to go to zero or back to buying 2 pizzas for 10000 bitcoin in the same way as I don't think BTC will be at $10k in a year. However the former is certainly theoretically possible and the latter is also realistically possible albeit rather unlikely.
CaneToad is right though in saying that bitcoin miners are not all that different from any other commodity miner, although I would say it *is* different to any other mining as it is potentially at the forefront of a new digital age - but yes in terms of the potential for it to crash, for the commodity price to fall below the cost price of mining it... that's very much possible.
You clearly have conviction that bitcoin will inevitably rise and rise and that's again very possible but it's not the certainty long term you think it is.
Also, Canetoad, when does a gold or copper miner, hodl it's produce?
HarChris, My apologies for the insults, however, you are accusing me of something I never posted, check out my posting history. I agree and always said that we don't know where BTC will be, I only mentioned that it rebounds after fall, which it does.
Canetoad and alpha omega, you are looking at it to simplicticly.
"You might be paying 10,000 bitcoin for 2 pizzas again like in 2010. It all depends on what people value them at. Their value is purely based on what people will pay."
That might apply when you are buying a house or a purchase of your individual needs, however, BTC is different. To keep it simple (short and sweet), it boils down to perception management. All the mass media for years have been giving BTC loads of air time, it is mentioned in the news daily everywhere, which in effect creates this value to this humble crypto. You cannot undo that, they are trying to create the dollar of the internet (I believe, they have succeeded), Most of the world trades in dollars soon they will move over to trading in crypto and BTC is the dollar. So, you pay whatever the exchange rate is, not what you are willing to pay.
In my honest opinion.
I am staggered you have the time to waste to post that!
@AlphaOmega: "You might be paying 10,000 bitcoin for 2 pizzas again like in 2010. It all depends on what people value them at. Their value is purely based on what people will pay."
Totally agree. ANYTHING is only worth what somebody pays for it. I hold BTC and ETH, but I see no reason whatsoever why it couldn't drop 99.99%. If NASDAQ drops significantly, I expect BTC to drop below $10k and for miners to drop 90% from the *current* price. Why not? What's changed? BTC is the same as 5y ago. It's only worth more because people are prepared to pay more, like tulips....
It's all about sentiment - and that's now very bad.
People ramble on about the hard assets that bitcoin miners hold (data centers, mining hardware etc) , but I think you'll find that they're worth next to nothing on the second-hand market - scrap value only.
Just before CRAY supercomputer went bankrupt for the millionth time, people thought they'd be able to sell the unfinished supercomputers for millions. A few days later, one of the engineers saw their latest model sitting in a field amongst some cows.
@poorinvestor: "BTC cannot fall to $10,000, it is not possible, as it is costing more to mine"
Oh boy, so you've never heard of a gold/copper/coal miner that's gone out of business because it costs more to mine that the stuff's worth. Have you ever invested in an AIM mining/oil company?
Hint: they go bust all the time. There's nothing special about crypto mining. It's just another form of mining.
Personally, I think there are too many bitcoin mining companies. It's sucked all of the investors away from the good ones. I hope that half of them fold in the next year.
How am I being a bitter old fool for saying no one knows where bitcoin could go, either extreme is possible?! You started off by saying that then completely backtracked on it and just started abusing me instead!
And i'm certainly not old, i'm a young nipper in my 20s ;)
AK - thanks for response, and taking my message in the jovial manner that was intended hence the smiley face. others seem to see it as a mocking gesture.
while the real economy data is looking good it currently does not reflect the shift in the markets today, and while we all hope that the markets will, sooner or later reflect underlying economic data, it is not always the case hence "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" .
There is the commentary that BTC follows Nasdaq, this can ring true based on reasonable assumption, given the risk asset label that is assigned to BTC. It follows that when Nasdaq drops then risk assets get hit the hardest. Flight to safety and all that, cash is only 'trash' until you want to liquidate and hold on the sidelines. We also have had the link of BTC as inflation hedge / Store of value all depends what story suits best at what time. Just depends what story you want to buy :).
'Now, they’ve gone the other way, also to the extreme. How many rate hikes are priced in already? I was scooping up oversold tech two hours ago, thrilled that ii’s were selling me some of their best stocks.'
rate hikes - at first it was two, then three, lastest 4, dont think we are at 5 yet but could have missed that news. markets have gone extreme i agree, pricing in faster rate hikes, but once points are hit on the way down, then the algo's exacerbate the drop. "Buy when there's blood on the streets" but how much blood :)
Your joy at buy tech on the 'cheap' really depends on your personal timeline & perspective. Will they still be cheap if the NAS drops another 10%? Not likely to happen due the the real economy right? Once again irrational market.
We have come off the back of the fastest monetary expansion in history and had the party, time for the hang over, sentiment will change, underlying economic data may stay healthy markets might reverse, pigs might fall from the sky :), point is all depends on your time horizon.
good luck with your buys, market due to turn mid year, so 'they' say.
'Here’s my take: Since I believe that most people are wrong about most things most of the time (including me)'
That is definitely the case in this game.
HarChris, five years ago you could of bought BTC for under $1000 and 6 or 7 years ago, you could mine loads using your home pc. So does that mean I'll be able to buy for under $1000?
You just sound like a bitter old fool, that keeps missing the boat. last post to you for this evening, you are making my whiskey taste wrong.
InsiderKnowledge, I'm nicer ;-)
Bitcoin was below $10k less than 18 months ago - you are the idiot if you think it's theoretically impossible to drop to $10k!
Don't talk to HarChris like that! he is a nice guy!
HarChris, either you have me mistaken for someone else or you are stupid. I'm going with stupid. In my opinion, BTC cannot fall to $10,000, it is not possible, as it is costing more to mine and believe me the mining industry is growing by the day. I have never given a definite price or when it will rise, but it will rise.
I hold half of my shares as a hodl and the other half I trade the hell out of and make good money. I even bought today for around 75 ish, I intend to sell them next week. No one knows what is going to happen, however, the trend with BTC is after a big knock it goes up. Only one way to find out. My last post to you, no need to reply.
Ta ,i m down to pocket change thankfully .
Woke up far too late but managed to stop the rot
I did read your post and it said there's too many know it alls on this bb... and my point is yes that's true and you are also one of them that makes lots of quite definitive bold claims about the direction of bitcoin, most of which are wrong.
Others on here speak in less definitive language as they genuinely understand that no one knows what crypto will do next - BTC could be $200k in a year, it might also be $10k.
Thanks flowerpot much appreciated. Gl to you, for you I genuinely hope it turns around.
Poorinvewtpr you still got beanie bears and tulips to dump?
10 -1
Exchange
Flowerpot what is the ************** on the adr pinks? 5 to 1?
Arbk unfortunately not doing any better at the moment
HarChris, yes, that is what btc does, read my post again. After a drop it always rises faster and higher, been doing that for the last 6 years. I suspect, it's going north after this drop, just my guesstimate. If it doesn't rise after this drop, it will after the next or the next but it will rise. In My honest opinion, do your own research.
fgs I meant 2013 taper tantrum. I’m fixated on 2018 for another reason that has nothing to do with this topic.
@HGN
“So AK says real money still buying and Aldebaran says the whales are dumping. And that we should all be able to see it but not 1 provides any evidence to back up there position.
Over to you two?
AK were does it show real money buying?
Aldebaran where does it show whales dumping?”
And…
“That may be so regards your caution level. But you where wrong on you 40k low call. BTC at $38.6k.
i know you have always said you could be wrong, well congrats you are :)”
Re buying, I understand why you interpreted that in such a way, but markets reflect economic sentiment along with policies that are designed to respond to the real economy. When I referred to the real money I meant real money as in the real economy - I look at real economic data every day.
Re market specifics, the last 13 years post-GFC are all BTC knows. And since ii’s have decided BTC represents crazy multiple / high growth tech, BTC somewhat follows NASDAQ sentiment, even if the charts divert at times, and altcoins somewhat follow BTC. Therefore, QQQ go down, BTC (and alts) go down. Why is QQQ going down? This brings us back to the real economy and policy (Fed, mostly) responses.
Here’s my take: Since I believe that most people are wrong about most things most of the time (including me), I “hedge” against most of us (including me) by being a contrarian by default. It works for me. Most of the time.
Right now, the majority believe the Fed is going to go full 2018 again. Before they believed the Fed would do nothing much about inflation and so added too much risk on top of existing risk. Now, they’ve gone the other way, also to the extreme. How many rate hikes are priced in already? I was scooping up oversold tech two hours ago, thrilled that ii’s were selling me some of their best stocks. Were they forced to? At these prices I have to assume so.
My point is this isn’t 2000, tech isn’t going anywhere, and if the Fed tries to battle mostly supply-side inflation created by harmful global policies, they will once again prove to be well behind the curve, just like they were in 2018.
Therefore, the only question I ask now is “are these oversold stocks and crypto assets *still* overvalued?” In my opinion, a little, but not much. Unless the majority are right about level of tapering and interest rate hikes by Powell and co. I’m not convinced. But, again, I may be wrong ;)
As for being wrong re $40k… if BTC goes to $<36k I’m obviously wrong, regardless of duration. $30k is very wrong! $40k to $38k back to $40k, however, is a fluctuation in such a volatile market. If we don’t resume above $40k fairly soon (within the next week or so) then again I accept I’m wrong because it means $40k is now resistance and we probably go lower still (hello bear market). I’m bullish both Argo Blockchain and Bitcoin long term but even shorter term I’m bullish on both. I don’t see 69p and I don’t see BTC staying below $40k by February latest.
But again I could… you know how this end
I'd agree wholeheartedly with your post poorinvestor except you are the one that makes the big bold claims time and time again and time and time again they are wide of the mark. Haven't you been repeatedly calling a breakout to the upside for bitcoin for weeks?