Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
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Link here for anyone interested:
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/623dd8f0b5116804221e3329/6246f199d446d56d0966eff0
IC - Peel Hunt, Buy
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/03/30/anglo-pacific-times-the-cycle-perfectly/
Trek
Its a strong HOLD with BUY on any weakness for me.
The royalty model is key in an age of increasing costs.
"We are still seeing global supply chain disruption continue, which is now driving inflation, at a time when consumer and government led demand is also increasing. Historically, inflation has tended to benefit hard assets such as commodities, and with current prices remaining buoyant, even before the Ukraine conflict, this appears to continue to be the case. Unlike the mine operators who will see this benefit eroded by increases in operating and capital costs, our royalty and streaming business model protects us as we are only exposed to the top line. In addition, the operations underlying our portfolio are well positioned on the cost curve which adds to the resilience of our portfolio as a whole."
and
"Overhead costs in the period increased by 37% to $10.7m. Over 60% of our costs are represented by staff costs and the increase in the year reflects a higher bonus accrual associated with the record level of investment in the year and record results. Elsewhere, costs continued to be incurred in relation to the Four Mile trial which was heard in November 2021, however, these costs are not likely to recur going forward."
BuyLongStayHappy
I've also tried to make some sense of where the share price will be at year's end.
2021 revenue was USD$85.3m out of which 45% of this was generated within Q42021 alone. Pretax profit is USD$54.6m so 45% of that should be USD$24.57m.
USD$24.57m = GBP£18.72m
EPS = GBP£18.72/214,000,000 shares in issue = 7.7p
That is Q42021 alone. If it was the same performance every quarter, that'd be 7.7p*4=31p hypothetical EPS for the entire 2022.
31p * a conservative P/E multiple of 8 = £2.50 thereabouts, is my forecast for APF share price by end of 2022.
*this excludes a downturn in APF commodities or any catastrophic world events. probably better to see H12022 performance numbers before being more certain of hitting £2.48 a share.
DYOR
Thanks sundancer, I'm very happy to be holding these.
Just to add as per today 31st March 22 with shares at 181p gives a Market Cap of £388M
2021 Final Results Quick View
EPS = USD$0.2518 = GBP£0.19
P/E ratio = £1.77/£0.19 = 9.31
Dividend yield = £0.07/£1.77 = about 4%
Net assets = USD$357.1m = GBP£271.6m
Thank you.
Ex Date 7th July & Pay Day 17th Aug.
No, Cotec is still suspended on the TSX
final dividend is pending AGM approval.
Anyone got the ex-date and pay day? I've trawled through twice and can't see it? Thanks.
Anyone got news on JT's latest venture - is CoTec Holdings trading yet?
Happy with the final divi - longer term I'm sure we will appreciate the smashing down of the debt.
Hi, I have a decent position in PXC.
Likewise I wouldn’t rule it out as the PXC deal will be underwritten by interest rate payments.
So if APF believes the commodity prices will be higher hence a higher NSR then that would fit their mo as the returns would be linked to commodity prices but underwritten by a fixed rate.
Question is do they want to tie up for 10 years and do they think they can get a better deal elsewhere. They may but PXC is perhaps a more predictable revenue option at least for a few million.
Usual caveats
Trek
It's definitely worth keeping an eye on. Given the location, I'd imagine on of the north American royalty co's would be more likely.
PXC did mention a royalty in my post, but as you say probably unlikely, just trying to join dots...
"a coupon calculated as a royalty on the net smelter return revenue received from production and sales at Empire".
Loan notes wouldn't be the usual fare for a royalty and streamer, but I do know that many of the US/Canada based co's are looking outside of the box for growth. I'd say it's unlikely, but wouldn't completely rule it out
Yes and we also know that Q1 numbers are going to likely be another record. APF in a fantastic place right now
PXC announced this morning…
The Company expects to raise a minimum of $60 million via the issue of Loan Notes to institutional and other investors.
It is intended that the Loan Notes will be US dollar denominated, will be non-convertible and be repayable after 10 years. It is also proposed that the Loan Notes will pay a semi-annual coupon equivalent to the higher of a fixed interest coupon or a coupon calculated as a royalty on the net smelter return revenue received from production and sales at Empire. The Company also proposes to seek admission to trading of the Loan Notes on a recognised securities market.
Wonder if APF could get involved?
Some posters here may have a better idea than me.
Bitter sweet really. I was hoping for a special divi but also as an investor want to see them pay down the debt which they have done and grow through further acquisitions which also looks likely.
We are now yielding over 5% paid quarterly which is excellent value. I fortunately am getting much more as I bought the recent dip but with inflation and rising commodity prices I think this has further to go even if it takes a breather as the results are out.
Coking coal prices are off the scale and there is much more to come there alone! Look at how TGA SP has performed. It’s thermal coal but similar metrics.
Usual caveats
Trek
*miners and developers all see
(LSE really needs an edit function)
Excellent results. Pleased that they're rapidly freeing up the credit facility after pretty much maxing it out with the Voiseys Bay acquisition. The key for APF going forward is to be selectively acquisitive and continue to grow.
Whilst miners and developoall see their capex and opex projections balloon as inflation really bites, it's clear that the royalty and streaming model enables you to get that commodity exposure whilst largely insulated from cost price inflation. This is the way.
Fantastic year for APF and more to come going by how much was generated in the final quarter.
“ There is likely to be higher income from Kestrel and Voisey's Bay in 2022, despite lower expected volumes, particularly at Voisey's Bay as operations move underground from the open pit, before they ramp up again in future years”.
Final dividend held at 1.75p as expected from the small mention in their Investor Meet presentation, still good at 7p a year.