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HITS: I’ve no issue with looking to the future. That’s what I’m doing. Future costs are as important as future potential returns. Angus management appear reluctant to discuss offtake agreements, hedge details and new well drilling costs. It’s no good investors quoting the management’s optimistic forecasts without considering the cost side of the argument. Maybe the analysis is too hard/time-consuming for them. If so, they’re ill-advised to ignore the analysis posted here by people who can do this research. The past here is pretty bleak. The future doesn’t look any better.
I see with some amusement (but no surprise) that posts laying out inconvenient but literally undeniable truths are being deleted.
Ocelot amongst other eternal pompom wavers states that "In my posts, I concentrate on the future"...
However, looking at ANGS's entire record to date, literally every single promise, assurance or prediction of jam tomorrow issued by any version of the ANGS BoD via any means (whether RNS, interview, presentation or PR puff) has turned out to bear no relationship whatsoever to the cold, hard reality of things.
Little wonder then that the cheerleaders are so insistent that people only "look to the future".
WG818: no mention at all, either, about the terms of the new Trafigura offtake agreement and the new hedges. There’s a reason for the one-year grace period before the start of loan repayments on the £20mm. loan they needed to make themselves free of £12m. of debt (which they didn’t need in the first place). If they have to put off investment in a new well until next year, that’s likely to be a very expensive year indeed. Meanwhile the average gas flow depletes every month.
WG818: the previous management (there’s been a complete clear-out, really, apart from Carlos) was derisive in discussing the skills of Wingas and its predecessors in title at Saltfleetby as to mapping and interpreting seismic and in drilling wells. Then they do one of their own, dismissing the cautionary advice of better-informed observers, to whom they referred as Martians, and it took several times as long, at several times the expense, as they, the management, had confidently predicted. I agree with you, Wingas got it right. No one is interested, apparently, in asking the management what that sidetrack cost. A sensible shareholder would be very interested in that information. The ex-Wimgas management were probably cheering on Lord Lucan when the gas price got up briefly to 800p but the amusing but hapless Earl missed it by a few months and shareholders have been paying the price ever since.
Lots of small investors here are impressed with the gross turnover figures being bandied about. After the royalty, and, much more importantly, the purchase of further capital equipment at Saltfleetby, the gradually dwindling gas flow won’t get near the cost of the planned investment. Unless, of course, the gas price takes another big hike upwards. It’s just a gamble, isn’t it? The supporters here would be more honest, really, if they made it clear that this is the whole of the investment case for Angus.
Oofy.
Little mention either of the essential planned workover on SF4 either that will drop production considerably whilst it’s carried out.
I don’t think anyone picked up on the fact that the new drill at Saltfleetby slated for the end of this year has now been pushed to the middle of next year, or the fact that the new compressor package is now not October delivery but now Q4….thats Next year then if any previous timeline supplied is to go by.
It’s again mind boggling that they are only now applying for planning permission at both Brockham for water injection from elsewhere (good luck with that), they have had 3 years to do this!, and at Saltfleetby also. I think looking back they will also have to apply to the EA for permission and that cane take over a year!?!, perhaps that’s one reason for the drill being pushed back? And of course the fact that they can’t actually afford to do it at a cooof £5 million listed in the CPR ( that also seems a bit light following the previous drilling disaster).
Yes it seems Wingas had a far better understanding of the situation when they gave the field and what appears to be £12.8 million to a one man band with £87k in the account when they walked away.
HITS: yes, there’s little mention here of falling quarterly production or the fact that, while forward contract volumes start to fall off soon, the contractual price has reduced for the next six months to 36.5p (is it?). I seem to recall Lord Lucan ages ago referring to Angus’s prospective operating breakeven as being in the mid-20s - that was before they took the £12mm. loan, if memory serves. In order just to maintain current production levels (which at about 7mmscfd seem to me to be way below earlier expectations for three wells and two compressors) they are planning to drill more wells. Those had better find gas, and at quantities that justify the cost of the drills. I’m not convinced that their experience in the drilling of the sidetrack (which seems to have been done by completely different personnel at Angus) is going to prove of huge use, given the heavily faulted nature of the field. Certainly, Wingas didn’t fancy it.
In my posts, I concentrate on the future but it hasn't all been "fortune telling", RH has also been discussing the past.
I don't know Ocelot, I don't waste my life listening to jack off webinars & interviews, they are for those that enjoy being pumped, I prefer to stick to the realities of the industry, for which I don't need his fortune telling stuff for.
From 01:09 says that:
they are currently about 65% hedged on their production and that, as of June, this will change to more like 55%, providing more upward exposure to current gas prices.
Bubblepoint,
In your 2nd paragraph, think you are preaching to the converted, given what RH has said in the webinar and in this interview.
""We know that we can run mature assets well. We have a lot of experience in field rehabilitation and mature field management, ""
Yeah, that's great Richard, BUT there is no point being good at something if you cannot do it in a way that is economical, doesn't involve payday debt, doesn't dilute the daylights out of it to get there, and tell lies along the way.
Mature/depleted fields are plentiful, the problem as always is the easy stuff is long gone, the remaining stuff will always be borderline on if it can be recovered with a profit fact !!!
What it will do is always give enough for THEM to keep their lights on and salaries covered, fact !!
As for anything that may additionally exist at SLBY, well one thing is certain, it will not be cheap to find out... they have first hand experience at THAT !!
Where might they be looking for growth opportunities?
From 12:23:
"We will play to our strengths. We know that we can run mature assets well. We have a lot of experience in field rehabilitation and mature field management, ..."
From about 05:41, re Saltfleetby reserves:
" ... sub-surface evaluation shows that there could be quite significant upside (to reserves) which sits in other reservoir levels (than that of the principal level) within the field ... so this could provide us with some really substantial reserves upside in the future".
from 07:41:
"... we're in a position to move forwards with looking at new projects".
from 08:17:
management wants to "take the company to the next level in terms of the assets it has and really put it on a path to growth".
22-Mar-24 0.2034
23-Mar-24 0.1986
24-Mar-24 0.1984
25-Mar-24 0.1884
26-Mar-24 0.1993
27-Mar-24 0.1946
28-Mar-24 0.1938
29-Mar-24 0.1945
30-Mar-24 0.1884
31-Mar-24 0.1969
01-Apr-24 0.1925
02-Apr-24 0.1929
03-Apr-24 0.1910
04-Apr-24 0.1928
I would expect some big buys from management very soon
We don’t have control of the date when the appeal decision will be known, we will communicate when we get to hear.
The Management and Board are looking into more share purchases.
Lost faith (and a lot of money) in this crap company. They will land some nonsense news on Balcombe to impact the sp and suck in a lot of PIs in here and again leave them staring at their losses.
The only people who have benefitted on here were and will, be traders with quick in and out.
I can't believe some of you old posters are still wasting your time here.
Dunno where the Ewell came from iPad autocorrect 😖
Ŵhy on earth would it fail it’s potentially the highest producing on shore uk Ewell and no fracking is planned
Uk wants to be more energy dependent so like the recent upgrade decisions I,am expecting an unappealable win for angs
Management wants to "take the company to the next level".
Hopes to have Brockham in production in late May/early June.
Stresses that Angus has a very strong team.
Looking at opportunities outside of the UK, in North America and in North Africa (no mention of Europe in this interview).
Simon, I'm fairly certain that the Balcombe decision will go in ANGS's favour. However, I sadly don't expect that to make much difference.
Good buying opportunity coming up
I know this is the case as one of the buys shown in red today was mine
My guess would be proxy owners who have a reason to devalue and erode the value at every RNS or positive announcement. Happened ever since the positive news of the sidetrack at Saltfleetby. Just a thought but I am sure there is another agenda at play for larger players to acquire large volumes at a lesser SP. GLA
HITS - I can partially agree with you on many peoples high predictions and expectations but isn't the Balcombe discovery and original testing one of the reasons you were in this stock? I also understand your bitter feelings that propel you still today due to the constant dreams of jam tomorrow but really? A positive Balcombe decision really could be a different league of opportunity for Angus than Saltfleetby ever has. Even you surely couldn't play that down?
GLA