Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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...and here is my working.
AML burned through almost £200m in Q1.
Q2 will be similar, so let's call the total a nice round £400m.
Can you see them earning £401m in H2 to say they are cash-flow positive over the full year?
Nope, neither can the market.
The debt interest is £120m per annum, alone. capex on new models is £344m for the year. Mental.
Share prices drop for good reason, and the reason is AML are running out of cash at an alarming rate, AGAIN!
They need to raise £200m in the next 3 months and the market knows this.
Who wants to buy the shares between now and the next cash raise?
Shortermers who sell as fast as they buy.
It's going to be another brutal year, AML said themselves new models "by the end of the year"
That's another 8 months of carnage.
Shorts closing.
And MM have more stock than they want, so they raise the price midday to lure some more idiots in, thinking a bounce is on.
Q2 will be sore too, more of the same, wish a cash raise too. Double whammy.
I give them zero percent chance of FCF positive this year. Zero!
From their brief high shortly after float these shares have lost 96pc of their value, what a turd of a company and share even by brexit basket U.K. standards😂
Exactly chill.. the limited reviews the DB12 has had have been excellent and below is an example. The problems associated with the software issue the company claim have been resolved last year and given the same configuration applies to all (to be released models) I am reassured that the claimed 40% gross margin by year end will be achievable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-jYWLehd6M
review from 2 months ago - do your own research and make your own mind up.
Not really the drop to 90p C26 is going on about....look at the end of year results lot's on this year, they always said the first quarter would not be good. Chill. x
13th May
Dire news! A drop in Sp at the bell and then a 10pence + increase in 2 hours!
Questions worth considering;
Who is buying?
…and why?
Larry, this is what happens when you try to charge more for cars, in a cost of living crisis.
Sales plummet.
Do you know why?
Because residuals are terrible, you've flooded the market with DBX and second hand prices are awful.
You roll out software for DB12 which simply doesn't work, now you're updating the WHOILE RANGE in 2024 with the same software.
H2 FCF + but if end of Q2 is better on cash burn than now that will be the catalyst. All down to the new product range reviews for me now and they start 12th May reportedly according to the CFO
With a loss before tax £138,000,000 is there an actual business here?
I guess they could always sell another 20-25% to merk or someone else, if they have any stake left. !!!!
then it wouldn't look like another cash raise ??????
But we all know it cannot carry on like this for long.
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings reported another large cash outflow for the first quarter and investors will likely remain on the sidelines as long as its cash flows stay in the red, Citi analysts say in a research note. The British luxury-car maker reported first-quarter results that missed expectations at both the top and bottom lines as it continues to prepare for new model launches this year, Citi says. A swing to a positive free cash flow on the back of a more solid and sustained cycle of new products remains the key indicator to look out for, and reaching this milestone could attract new investors to Aston Martin's recovery story, Citi says. Shares fall 7.4% to 137.20 pence. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
THEY HAVE £229m cash available, the rest of the cash balance is actually debt/loans from banks.
Look at the reasons they raised cash in the past, to "cover all liabilities". Revolving credit facility is a liability.
Why do you find this so difficult to understand. You're either a paid poster trying obfuscate, or just stupid... Which one?
Jed, they have £395 Million available, so no cash needed.
And of course Ferrari nearly went under twice ...
A bit like tesla was then ....it's all about timescales and managing exposure. Hence why I never invested until this week. I remain positive but time will tell.
The last raise was announced at £4.40 and new shares were placed at £1.03.
The share price today is £1.37 and market cap £1.3bn, slightly above the net debt.
If they wanted to raise 500m with 4-1 offer, the offer price would be circa 35p.
It must be 3-4-5 times over the last 10 years and no matter who takes it over or how much they keep raising to situation doesn't seem to change.
There must be another £500m raise coming very soon in my view at what price 99p ?
You're an idiot, the cash levels are screaming "cash raise imminent" and you buy shares.
Stille = Noah, and they bought in a few months ago, now down on their gamble they pretend to "see value" in today's share price.
Don't trust a word of it.
The financial situation looks awful. However, have stuck my toes in here again because I do believe the brand value is greater than the net debt.
Https://www.ft.com/content/e940dbf7-6021-482a-9c23-f3ae3f905731
Philippe Houchois, an automotive analyst at Jefferies, said the company was going through a “painful transition”, with a similar performance expected in the coming quarter as well.
Barclays analyst Henning Cosman said the business required “a fairly extreme hockey stick” in the second half of the year to hit its targets.
"The company spent £80mn on financing expenses in the first three months of the year, related to changes in the US dollar exchange rate and fees from paying back some of the refinanced debt early."
Https://www.ft.com/content/e940dbf7-6021-482a-9c23-f3ae3f905731
My green bars tell me that someone is really, really triggered this morning..excellent fun... I console myself however with the thought that everyone has an agenda either long or short BUT no one, no one does anything like they do out of human kindness .... LOL
Total cash is misleading imho, £170m of that is a liability thats needs paid back with interest.
So cash is 229m.
Well below what they need as a going concern in 3/4 months time. Another 3 months of huge cash burn getting new models ready and they will DEFINITELY need more money.
Are you going to hold and wait for that cash raise?