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What are the biggest risk factors on this share now? Because at the moment I can't see many.
Other than how well they run the business once the scheme is approved.
I am in no way a professional investor so take my opinion lightly. I just dabble in amigo, topping up/averaging down along the way.
The biggest one for me is not being in it over the wkend ;-)
Biggest risk is it goes bust!!!!!!!!!!! DURRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!
Guess who is back....
But he is right the biggest risk is they go bust, at this stage i don't see who that benefits but he has correctly stated a fact that it the biggest risk. If we stick to facts he will be welcomed with open arms.
This literally is a roulette play - red or black - lose all your money or hit the jackpot.
So quaker, what do you think the risk is.
Evens?
Win or lose 50/50
3/1, 5/1, 10/1?
The first "risk" is the court case I'm February.
This is just to sanction putting the SOA options to the claimants. Very unlikely to be refused. Outcome is very low risk.
Next "risk" is which SOA the claimants vote for.
First option is for quick settlement of 29% of claim followed by winding up of AMIGO
Second option is 42% of claim, longer settlement period but AMIGO then continues with a new business model .....which will need refinancing, probably from a future rights issue or similar.
If I was a claimant I would vote for a bigger settlement, but some or many may want s quick payout, so the risk at this point (sometime in March) is significantly higher.
After that, I think it is extremely likely the court will approve (in April) of whichever scheme the claimants voted for. Very unlikely we'll see the same fiasco with the FCA as last time.
So March is the big risk time ....which way the claimants vote. If they choose the 29% we're done, no way back from this
If they choose the 42% over a longer period it's good, court will probably approve it but there will be a capital raise from shareholders in the near future .
It's not s simple one, but fir me the claimants vote in march is the riskiest time to hold these shares .....at that point it will be a good outcome going forward or game over .
The court case in February is simply to give AMIGO permission to put an SOA to the claimants, it will not approve or deny any of the SOA.
It may refuse AMIGO permission to put an SOA to the claimants, but very very unlikely this will happen.
Some are comparing this to the court case last year when the sp hit 30p prior to the hearing. It's not the same, it is not looking to approve either of the SOA, that will happen in April
Last time after court case 1 we were at 16.2p on close.
With you saying we would be dead if the vote went against us, is that strictly true? As last time the vote favoured us and the decision still went against us.
So it isn't legally binding is it?
Plus shares are held in Amigo Holding Plc not Amigo Loans Ltd.
The last creditor vote was 95% in favour of the SOA. The preferred option on the new SOA is considerably more money back to redress claimants than the first SOA. Therefore, you would assume that the majority would vote in favour. However, we also have to consider that Amigo have made much more effort in engaging all customers past and present so there will be a number of customers that would potentially vote that didnt vote the first time around. That to me is the unknown element.
One would think that it shouldn't swing the vote significantly
If the vote goes against us, yes. There is no business going forward, just a 29% payout to the claimants followed by a managed wind down
I agree Rajesh.
Also many Amigo claimants are not typically people who are in a good position financially. Some may choose to cut and run with the 29% rather than waiting any longer......what do they care about the future of AMIGO?
Although if they're claiming through a CMC, the CMC's would if course prefer the 42%......a lot of unknown s at the claimants vote, which is why I consider that to be the riskiest time
Claimants aren't choosing a scheme they can vote for them both or against them both or one/other.
Both will be options, both will be voted over 90% I expect. Claimants should be over the moon the committee has done an amazing job for them.
Just remember Nisa if they wind down the business of Amigo Loans Ltd our shares don't just vanirsh into thin air.
No they won't vanish into thin air, I know that, but no value.
What is the value in Amigo holdings going forward if AMIGO loans does wind down? Dies anyone know?
I think they will go for the 42% as most will want the loans repaid from it.
£5000 loan.....42%=£2100 payment/29%=£1450 payment
I know what I'd want 42%
I think the CMC's will encourage their clients to go for the longer term 42% as well......purely in the interests of their clients, of course
So....I get the feeling that most think it isn't even a 50/50 of failure.
In that case if I put a tenner on evens I get £20 back if it wins, With amigo it could give me x3, x5, x10.
If I was I betting man, this would be brilliant odds.
Even odds bet but possibly giving you 20/1 in time.
GLA
Is that right, they are proposing to refund 42% of the total value of the loan? Not just the interest or something like that?
No that isn't right.
Ha, so they proposing to refund 42% of what?
The worth of your claim. (Interest + 8%).
Bear in mind with a loan depending on term and amount, your interest could be more or less than the original amount you borrowed.