Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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well it occurred to me that we could get an after hours rns which would then give an extended period for it to be nicely digested by the press and then a big rise on Tusday at opening. However I feel I will have to settle for some amazing weather some beers and a barbeque which is not that bad. Still feel that it will be the very end of August before we get the formal offer price and recommendation. Remember will anyone come in with a final price at first ...no imo and therefore communication back and forth from the interested parties therefore extending the timeline possibly to mid September. or does the surprise bidder put in a knockout price on the table as a take it or leave it offer for a very limited time so that the board need to put it to the shareholders within a very short time span. Cannot believe that pi's are not gobbling these shares up. Oh well he who dares wins. Do your own research but if you took this to the bank I reckon they would give you the loan to purchase. Stacks up on so many fronts. I agree with those that feel this was built to sell eventually and the stars are aligned probably on a commercial and personal level at this moment in time.
"add" and that is what I will do procured some more shares today and doubled my holding. 17p average and I see minimum take out at 29p and max at 50p and miracle will be anything over 55 imo but they happen and it is worth what someone is prepared to pay it is a unique buying opportunity to get into a mkt place that is becoming extremely fashionable for reasons that previously made it unfashionable. It is prime time to sell the asset imo as JW realises that if it is not sold at a premium or best price now then a hostile bid will come in at 23p all cash and will be accepted by myself and the majority of pi's and all ii's. So they may as well carve it up and sell the lucrative assets of which there are several that everyone is very aware of for a premium. I for one am accumulating and enjoying the ride as others should. As has been pointed out by knowledgeable posters. Their may be reasons why the news flow seems slow and if we are negotiating for what in my mind will be a definite sale then I for one would be grateful that they are giving it their whole attention. To me this is a no brainer at these prices. A venture capitalist would happily pick this up for £300 million.(23p sp equivalent approx.) as they have £60 million approx. in bank so £240million in effect. Seriously do the maths and then see how much sense it makes to be buying at these prices. Like I say anything under 20p is like having a counterfeit machine and churning out money. Anyway I have spoken with JW before at previous AGM's and I am confident in the bod's ability to get a price so that they have happy shareholders and that they in turnrealise a good return especially on the shares that they purchased at 17p. It did not go unnoticed that the m and p offer came in at the same price as they recently bought their shares at. Also you would never put in your maximum bid at the start so that was an opening gambit and I would expect it to be 20-50% lower than what they intend to be their final offer. It may be up to 25p cash and then part share also from Mand P. So I expect some news as I have said before the end of this month but once the next news comes out sub 20p will no longer exsist and hopefully nor will sub 30p. GC and JW will no doubt take a well earned break and trust me their is nothing more sobering than losing a very close friend to focus the mind and prioritise what is important as your mortality is bought more sharply into focus. I expect following the sad passing of Dana they are indeed probably going to enjoy their wealth with friends and family as you realise that you never now what is around the corner so if you can you might as well enjoy what pleasures you most. GLA
Well except $93m + $19m = $112m outlay was never outlayed, only $19m was ever moved in cash.
The $93m is just sitting on our new balance sheet as a big fat credit (which everyone seems to forget about) awaiting OXY works to offset against.
CD: "To OXY, what's another $500m to bag the lot?"
Hit the nail on the head there IMHO... far and away the most likely "speculative" outcome. Certainly the reason I am invested here and have also added in recent weeks.
First week in September IMHO for the news we are all patiently waiting for.
GLA :-)
All getting a bit tense here isn’t it.
The view of the BoD depends entirely on your perspective of their objectives. If they were setting out to grow a production company they have been a bit pathetic. If on the other hand they were setting their stall out to build a company to be sold for the value of its assets they have played a blinder, building a strong land bank and adding strategic value to it without incurring debt.
Either way - I suspect the lack of news is because the game is all but over for Amerisur. The data room will be getting real time updates on every aspect of the company at a level not material to the market as a whole, but will include everything from seismics to E&P cost models for each of the assets.
I’ll be amazed if this process doesn’t end in a serious recommended bid, there is just too big a disparity between the potential strategic value and the AIM share price. The best only outstanding question is when, I personally think news will likely emerge in the next two weeks ahead of the due date for the interim results.
Colonel - you certainly packed the insults in there .
First, I've been around for a long time and have been very patient, wrt the needy bit, I'll be here until this is resolved and will not sell cheap even in the face of no news. My comments reflected genuine concern and you criticise and then agree "In the meantime, yes it is odd that we have had zero updates on CPO-5. That's a bit poor" Then go on the provides excuses for the BoD again. I suspect you simply want to discuss positives and ignore the elephant in the room - everyone sees it - why is CPO-5 progress so poor.
Do you not realise you legitimise my point with your own half-hearted swipe, the BoD need to be strong and wary that they may need to resort to shareholder support down the line to get the best outcome.
and You're damned right I'm frustrated, but needy! no mate. In case you hadn't noticed it's institutions that appear to be selling and I suspect PI's are net buyers now, - are IIs needy or perhaps feel they have not been givern enough reason to hold onto their shares? It's as simple as this if they don't keep shareholders properly informed, some assume/fear poor performance or a problem and sell or lose confidence in the BoD.
We are all thrashing around trying to second-guess what the parties are up to arent we. As El Colonel sagely noted folks should sit back and enjoy the ride. That said I have a few observations:
CPO-5 may appear our most valuable bargaining chip but as others have noted a 30pc non working stake will not have much heft with the Indians. Why would they be in a hurry to prove up the find to boost our NAV on GC’s timetable. Perversely though, that may be advantageous as potential buyers are going to have to take a flyer on what that stake is worth ( and I mean over the next 10 years ir so if it a biggie). Do ONGC care about a different face on the 30pc stake? Only if it helps them, otherwise I dont see them losing too much sleep.
2. As I’ve noted before the pipeline has real strategic value as the cost in time and money and politics for s/o contemplating doing it again from scratch makes buying Amer very attractive
3. These types of strategic plays come along rarely & the value the market ascribes is often way off the strategic value ascribed by the industry players ( seen this time and time again e.g -Glencore/ Xstrata; Shell/British Gas BP/Burmah
Treasures - I don't think there is a snowball in hells chance of ONGC selling out to us or us even being able to afford it.
However, I had contemplated the possibility of them selling down their share by 20% and ceding operatorship (really needed).
The trouble is we have nothing to offer ONGC is term of proven competence to run the show, as my last post suggested we have been poor operationally, especially when compared with Geo Park who are a preferred partner and exceptionally skilled in the area.
Consequently, I would not be surprised to see a reshuffling of assets with Geo Park buying CPO-5 from us and part of ONGC's share to become operator. In return ONGC could receive a share in Geo Parks blocks . It makes a lot of sense for all the operators, even Ecopetrol could play a part in consolidation of the blocks - a win win for everyone making a formidable land bank.
Well said Colonel. Your posts are always sound and informative. Cheers, YM
JTD
This is a wild one. If OXY want the initial 4 blocks that Amer farmed out but we keep plat and OBA for the cash flow. Get drilling on PUT 8 when we can. Then with the money we get from the sales make an offer to ONGC for an extra slice of CPO-5 and become operator. And then the fact Indy 2 not drilled keeps the price down. The Indian government then get the cash out that they want.....wild but do you think at all poss. Cheers and always great summary/thought posts from yourself.
Assuming normal reporting is still in place and it should be - the lack of progress is extremely worrying for me.
I believe it is important that Amerisur projects an image that it is quite capable of telling all bidders their offer is not good enough and we can survive on our own (they need to keep shareholders supportive). The tactical strength of Amerisur and our BoD in particular is weakened in any negotiation if our team looks incapable of running the company successfully (optimising opportunities).
Sadly, they have always been consistently weak operationally if not strategically, despite shareholders rallying to JW's defence in the face of any criticism he has failed to deliver planned progress year after year - None of us know what is currently going on, drillimg waiting, flooded out, who knows. To the best of our knowledge they had simply to move the rig to an established site along an established route and reinstall - what's the problem???
IMO it is important to reassure shareholders at this importantly time, especially as the BoD have asked shareholders to hold firm. If Indico2 is not to be spudded imminently then they should demand a meeting with ONGC to ascertain intent and then publish their understanding. Embarrass ONGC if necessary, IMO we are past the stage of niceties, if ONGC are deliberately dragging their heels as they seem to be every potential bidder will recognise it in any case, they're not stupid, it's about our BoD defending our interests robustly. WE may be the junior investor but we still have legal right as VOG found out wrt to their junior investor on many occasions.
Big smoke- one of the pleasures of Amer has been the quality of messages which will finish upon the sale . The futility and vulgarity of the latest comments gives me less regret - the worst of internet .
ding, ding.
the last safeharbour from ill advised ad hominem posts, finally subcombs.
Is that a bite then mate?
BBN
That seems strangely selective. Why not also consider the result for shareholders while you’re there?
Why am I fortunate lse have deleted them ?? Are the bobbys coming to arrest me .
Grow up , I’m joking .
Are you trolling us?
The only 32p happening tomorrow willec is what is left in my bank account before pay day !!!
I don't think 32p tomorrow will happen may have to wait a few months for that
32p
I was partly joking as this is a weekly episode of 'The Drama of Amerisur'. With a another terrible weekend ahead (3 dayer). Will people be gun hoe for buying tomorrow or more likely Tuesday next week. Also we keep having '1' codes with no news so how does one no tomorrow especially with possibility months of negotations ahead, unless a offer has been placed (If so hoping for at least 25p)
New bid tomorrow coming .
Tomorrow