The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
@Bigsmoke apologies i did not see your replay as we crossed over. The reports are to the 29th April but they run one day behind. Therefore, the 29th April report is for oil pumped upto and including 28th April.
@Bigsmoke the April production table states AMER total barrels at 97,749 for 28 days, which should come out at 3,490 bopd.
97.749 / 29 = what??
Good morning all,
Whilst i do think the positivity is justified and good to see, the enclosed monthly throughout paints a slightly different picture.
It shows a drop off on 26th April to 2,012 barrels then a ramp up to 5,303 and 4,590 over the next 2 days, which tempered the one day drop off. The total average throughput for April thus far is 3,490 bopd, placing average production for Q2 at around 6,000 bopd.
But it is rising. The April throughput figures include the first 2 sluggish days of April, which managed on average just 2,065 bopd. Since then throughput has been consistently much higher but for the 26th April and the average continues tom creep upwards.
http://www.controlhidrocarburos.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Prod-Mensual-Fiscalizada-29-ABRIL-2019.pdf
3.370 average for the month (so far).
stop being misleading. makes the share appear like a boiler room stock.
OBA was 3.95 for last 3 days (2.012 / 5.303 / 4.590).
OBA was 3.95 for last 3 days.
What is going on .....OBA UP AGAIN to 4590 but sp is slipping....
its only 'we' PIs that seem to think the SP is fecked over and has been for near two years and, I might add still dropping. Could we be wrong....eh...im starting to think so. Geezo, trying to make money out of this lot is harder than working for a living! GLA. Management are Sh*te IMO.
recent discovery at Indico, farmouts, 5K bopd and heap of cash and no debt. I am piling in at every drop. Oh yeah ans POO going up.
No brainer for me.
If that post is for me JP2000; I'm not predicting a Sol failure.. I haven't a clue whether they'll strike or not .. and to what extent if they do... etc...In my post, I offered a view on both scenarios.. one duster, one strike.. I didn't offer price predictions for strike granted, as the extent of the strike etc would dictate that .. and so it's too complicated for my small brain to even try to go there..
ps: What priced in and not currently is very debatable imho.. production at what future poo.. what levels of future production.. untrusted management... geopolitical risk... etc..
Must have missed something, what's your basis for predicting Sol failure, you've reviewed the seismics (not in the public domain) and deduced there's no enclosure cap?
The difference between Calao and Sol is expectation and hype. Nothing other than production is priced in and even then many would say barely priced.
What will it take to get the Daily Mail to TIP Amerisur too !! (As they've picked a South American Oiler in PPC, I'm guessing they looked at Amerisur too and preferred PPC. That surprises me reasonably, if not hugely?)
Wait til after Sol-1 results to average down again LuckCounts imho.. given the recent duster and some unhappiness with managements performance generally, I don't expect the s/p to go up much in anticipation... and I expect it to come off very approx. a couple of pence if a duster. If a strike, then you're buying in a rising from a very low base (imho) s/p ...which the purists say is the best way to go.
even PPC is up 17%. And Peter Levein bought PPC a few rounds at their AGM a while back.
What is JW doing? Offering us the trimmings from his rug?
people said that at 19p, 17p, 15p, 13.5p.
could just be the stock is heading south once again, and BOD do not give two hoots.
On AJB could only buy up to £5k but could do dummy sell of £30k so looks like MMs have dropped the bid this morning to shake out some weak holders
http://www.ongcvidesh.com/tenders/
for those who have the patience to wait for the website to load.....
Desperately trying to ramp development of CPO -5. Recent added tenders for civil works at Aguila -1 Drill site including the access road, waste management (NIT keeps being renewed) and a tender for sale of it's crude from production. I think the latter is quite recent but don't check their website as often as I should as it is rarely updated and so so slow.
Despite the apparent lack of news and the poor investor relations I am confident that production and reserves will increase. The price will follow but at the moment manipulation is the name of the game for the city boys. This will turn.
Doesn't look like we are getting a production update for the first quarter. What are the bod thinking, we need to be kept upto date.
Yes indeed. AMER newest high profile partner has just proven hat they are prepared to go to the market to secure additional barrels of reserves and future potential.
I thought Chevrons offer of $34 per barrel of Anardarko's 1.47 billion proven reeserves was a headline, but Occindental just raised it to nearly $39 a barrel. Yes they see synergies with their own operations but still it is quite figure.
AMER is small fry compared to the $57 billion being put up for Anardarko and it operates in what is a new and more risky area than the Permian Basin (although Anardarko do have asignificant interest if the coast of Mozambique).
However, at the very least OXY have demonstrates that they are afraid of buyouts or consolidation and that future potential drives them to pay a stronger price for proven reserves.
Before AMER and OXY even starts drilling on Put 9 etc AMR should hit 20m of proven reserves driven by the appraisal of Indico. If their partnership with OXY then starts to bear fruit during 2020 and the future risk can be sufficiently eradicated in their eyes (local community issues, drilling success etc) then there is a good chance of a take out in the future. Could be 2021 or later still but with OXY already proclaiming the OBA pipeline as being the key fundamental that drew them to AMER in the first place, there is a strong argument for backing a take out that gives them full ownership of it and opens up what is now a far more business friendly region post war.
At an only recently surmounted $70 per barrel Brent OXY would pay $39 per barrel for proven reserves. Even if they offered half of this to an AMER that has had a full 2020 at CP0-5 and various successes with OXY, and made in-roads into its now 100% owned Put 8, then we should be talking reserves and a valuation substantially ahead of where we are now.
Heck Anardarko is carrying $16 billion in debt. AMER has none.
Certainly an interesting development if nothing else.
Including more and more balance in recent times the quality on this B.B. is extremely - squared - good imho. I always respect KISS ( keep it simple stupid ) : Buy low -9p to 15p range - and sell high - 25p to 50p range - is the answer imho .. in between times, patience and noise reducing headphones required.
(i should try reading top to bottom).
see you go there Samroy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/26/anadarko-takeover-struggle-yet-proof-black-golds-value-investors/
Frustrating times but a hold imo.