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Thanks for the update. Great to hear those insights. I hope the constant interruptions don't prevent us from getting a video. 800km road seems a hell of a lot - will cost a bob or two. I'll still expecting oxy to come in on Put8 once all the approvals are in place. Thanks again!
Thanks for the post.
Thanks JXP , that's something to go on. Shame about the frustrated shareholder spoiling matters , but hey she has a point and she turned up to vent. Fair play to her .Here's to better times ahead.
Once again thanks for your report.
Regrettably, the AGM lacked coherence today and mainly because one shareholder in particular kept breaking across JW's presentation and eventually, it became a fire fighting exercise.
Some interruptions, however, from the better informed, yielded interesting information, including a bit of color on the ONGC/AMER working relationship.
Apparently, they have an Operating Committee:
Some items are decided by majority (and that is where ONGC's 70% gives them the muscle) and that determines the order of well drilling
Other items have to be 100% and that applies to the overall program and commercialization.
Once again, it was reiterated that they were looking in the wrong place for the oil until AMER partnered.
Further detail was given on what actually drives the program and it is apparently the need to fulfill the "A3" requirements in the time slot to 2021. It is more important that production, because where the commitment has not been fulfilled, the asset has to be handed back.
For that reason, Sol and the seismic is prioritized over Indico 2 (which is "A2" and does not count)
It was also mentioned that a plan had been mapped out with ANH and that 12 locations had been permitted: if the sites chosen in advance prove not be optimal, it is a small change.
Also mentioned was that they are hoping to get a couple of wells on the Guadalupe trend and as a by line, that the $16m capex is funded out of production.
Re examining the above and the data to hand, it does make sense of CPO-5 and looking at today's news, it seems as if ONGC are finally putting their foot on the peddle to secure the whole block, as wells are now spudding like clockwork, at 3 monthly intervals: Indico, Calao and now Sol.
Put 8 and Miraparriba were mentioned and JW cheerfully announced that the rest of Vetra's assets were rubbish, but Put 8 is the prize, with light and heavy oil. They are going to do their own pad now as the complications of drilling off someone else's pad has a myriad of complications (also mingling light and heavy oil, if I heard correctly) and the additional cost re infra structure is an 800 km road. Whilst accepting that explanation, the overall picture is not of a cosy accommodating relationship with Gran Tierra, on the receiving end of that little ROFR trick.
The other major take that was to be had from the trashed presentation was the emphasis on the OXY deal and that our acreage is bang on trend of the major heavy oilfields: slide 6 of the presentation illustrates. No doubt we would have had a greater share of JW's insight, but for the disruption by a senior citizen, who liked the sound of her own (very loud and self important) voice and wasted, to a large extent, our once a year only, opportunity to speak to the man who is Amerisur.
As ever, JW was rushed off directly after the meeting and that I find that plain insulting: whoever plans his diary on these visits gives no consideration to PIs at all.
GLA
As *kin piss8d off by this lot as I am and I have made my predictions pretty clear , all resolutions were passed so what's the point of even venting here? So not a jot has changed at board level , lets hope Oxy can change the direction for us. Someone said what a depressing post from me last week , well what a depressing share to influence the depressing post. I couldn't make the AGM , why is there no posts whatsoever as to the question ,answers or discussions? I find this most odd! Unless of course nobody actually went who said they were going.
So for the geezer who said my post was depressing , lets look at the two drills turning now. I can see 11.3p before results. And Willec , wise up ff's. If you see 22p by Christmas take it and run! If results are bad lets go for the 9.9p I expect to be re-visited.
Last point, the evidence this company is NOT working to a pre determined business plan. Forget E & P and JW forecasts- IS - Q4 you forgo output flow for Royalty barrels which is cheap - as if there was no budget, then don't make sales as Oil too low and stop Maintce and investing to preserve cash - this is Arthur Daley country - when you have a 2m acres - a JV with 2 of the largest Oil firms in the World II's PI's and forgo any othe rplan for opportunity!!?? Crass management makes no sense. We never get FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE ALIGNED WITH OUTPUT. We never get ops stats - whats our storage capacity blending etc etc because its lazy financial reporting - we never feel we are in control as a shareholder - we cross fingers when an RNS is issued - compare that to GTE and Geopark, they will out pace us soon - have developed their Balance Sheets and move - at a low price as we are penny pinching and GC should have been shot - he's not an Oil MAn - he's a wine merchant FFS.
Guess Q3 - save costs on Plat - no maint'ce remember the blow out on the pres may 18 - No prevent maint'ce - save costs - CPO5 will deliver - no harm letting Plat 1 output fall, we'll get other deals done early. Failure to project manage - basically and can be put right quickly with good hard management discipline investment and STRATEGY- this has bit them in the arse and in business and in life 1 mistake catches you with your pants down. Look at US as a business since CX1 we have collapsed not just SP but as am entity SHALLOW NO DEPTH - that's bad LAZY, PENNY PINCHING BAD MANAGMENT MADNESS .
Hi JP2000, retained earnings relies on CPO 5 output which is 50% of ours and we have NO control over, look at the collapse in output when CX1 was drilled, that's the point the Market can't place trust reliance on any true output figure they are not reliable and every break thru has a caveat, especially building in volatility in POO there's no buffer now, will be in 18mths if we get there . Sorry to be a downer. If you can't forecast it you can't analyse it that's why the FD must go, City don't respect him, as he stood up for anything material, or just lagged behind bad news. Look at Rose FD for PMO even when they were 19 p and in breach of covenants - a lesson in Balls. We have no Net debt.
More important in Dec 18 not to sell oil at $55 and wait for $70, getting a saved loss of say $2m, but loses $100m Mkt Cap by not investing in upholding production and improving RODA - we have a Penny investment culture and financial discipline we need to get rid of the FD and employ a true ops FD and GC is Retail, that motion suited him to a tee - get a higher price while output collapses
I would advise get an additional $50m operational investment facility earlier, yes reduce sales hold for profit - then invest in all projects we have 100% control with a 12 month payback. This BOD needs to employ and MAN UP, the opposition must be pixxing themselves, Pennywise - Oil block foolish. This will be taken away quicker than they think by someone who can manage an Oil company - Sorry had to give an example of what I'm saying.
Much of the exploration can be funded from retained earnings provided there’s no divi or buybacks. Where they’ll need debt is for development; OBA, RODA, CPO5 pipeline, production facilities.
Last point - I guess , we held cash back for CPO 5 surge in drilling and cons for civils which never happened - i.e HOLD BACK INVESTM,ENT WHERE WE DON NOT CONTROL THE OUTPUT!!!! AND SACRIFICE OUR MANOR . Fine but the risk ALgo says - keep all other options moving - for the sake on penny pinching $30m we have lost $100m Mkt Cap - now that is Shite Management - that's why I'm angry - as it should NOT be this way. We are punished for poor consecutive accumulative project, drilling Civils Seismic timeline management . Poor decision making - a good FD would have spotted in advance this and enacted avoidance measures which would have included investment - GC thinks RODA is a US Sitcom FFS why put $8m into Entertainment! This is the problem the market has- IMO is what is going to improve the decision making at ops and investment level ????- same as same as. FFS Alex wake up - you have the ability and the muscle and could sell one help of a project gear up with NO DILUTION + ENDING IN A COMMITTED DIV Policy ffs - this is easy Piece of pixx and they are making hard work of it. END They have had 90% possession 2 shots on target and 2 OWN Goals, we are 2nd division. GLA GN If we get this right - 50p no brainer, our own BOD are a bigger problem than any social issues or permitting.
We need an exceptional FD - a professional with vision, Market PR skills acts as a referre between the natural energy and optimism of JW, and challenge the BOD on all asspects of the business - complie the business plan form all aspects of the business- integrate ops, sales finance Currency etc and IMPLEMENT IT . Amer has done the hard yards in getting the blocks, it could lose them because WE HAVE LOST FECKING CONTROL OF THE BUSINESS PERFORMANCE!! Simple as, we have a financial management duster. GN End that's why with a 200ft Col of Oil we are 12p, we DON@T CONTROL IT!!! So sell it and invest $140m in what we can!!! this year.
We only control Plat 100% ops and we let that slip - if you utilise a Ganht Chart - with forward lead times to fruition - you retain output control over the asset you rely on and should sacrifice the cash balance in doing so to maintain output while matters abound. We have +8 great portfolio opportunities with future potential and varying timelines, we are punished for losing operational control over the business, in the FARC days OK, now is a disgrace!!! Even with 30% of CPO5 we've fallen back corporate wise . To get this ship back on Track - $50m, Bank Loan with a punishing 12-18mth delivery on OUR stuff. GLA First get RODA upto 20kbopd a.s.a.p.. OXY need that, get in control of it Ecop NO CASH - Bully the positions we have operationally - we have done it deals but not in production.
1. We found Oil - loads of it, but we own 30%, we are not in control of the timing, output ,direction of its extraction. 2. Limited access to the RODA oil pipeline 9kbopd Caps our upside - partial contrib - limit income stream. 3 100% Control over a depleted field - lowering margin. 4 Pint new field - Not in control Duster??? no drilling strategy. 5. PUT 8 Not in Control permissions.6. OXY deal WIP - will happen lead time. 7 Not keeping pace with ALL competition. 8. Outcome - can't forecast properly or deliver a realistic deadlines. 9 No dividend policy. 10 PR disgrace - no investment whatsoever. So much potential, waiting for the right person or persons. I could go on. After our AGM PMO 16th and Enq 23rd, I'll post the SP after the starting point - post AGM and - NO Clue see how Huge debt faces up to Cash pile and understand the upcoming volatility, not in POO but in each SP - for my peace of mind - I hope we win, we should hands down from our extremely low SP base - Balance down to the BOD and PR. HNY
I think people can't understand how the OBA increases and showing positivity yet the sp slides and slides. A rerating must happen soon and I expect when it happens it will be massive bearing in mind this has been held back for too long.
This share is based on oil exploration & so I can't quite understand why so much of this
board criticism is against the BOD sitting in London. Apart from raising City funds ,when
required ,could someone illuminate me as to how the London board could change the company's
profitability ( apart from cutting their own salaries ) ?
the good old daze, I remember them too.
II's.....do we still have some of them? Oh yes, one or two....:)
Don't believe everything you hear or read.....can be bad for your bank balance and share portfolio!
GL & GN.
Also, this share iis said to be undervalued and with all the drills planned this year what is the Fair Value at this current time?
I remember a time when this was trading at 20p and that was before any of the planned drills were even discussed, about 1 year ago or that is what it seems like - what happens there whilst oil is at $71.47 [per barrell)
Willec, your optimistic outlook is sometimes (IMO) a little dreamy, however, I like it. :) GL.
If these two wells produce then it bould I guess push 50p + immediately. On the otherhand what are the chances of 2 dusters as we all ready had 1.
PP....the SP will dictate and thus far for some period of time it has provided the feast for whinging amongst PI's (me included). Until there is a shift in the trend i.e. upwards I for one believe we are entitled to whinge now and again.
Its all very well (!) drilling simultaneous wells, however, have they analysed the data correctly, the last two results seems to indicate hey are not very good at it of late? You are right, its not all bad, if it was I'd have been gone a long time ago, there is the prospect of jam tomorrow! GLA. :)
Fair play to GTE Geopark they invest, we couldn't match that commitment per capita of income PRE OXY, post OXY it's like watching a local Authority repair pot holes FFS. The OBA 3rd party tariff clearance was never in doubt and a KEY Conduit for attracting the OXY. We have invested directly the Princely sum of $4m Bucks for the pump station - say +$2m adhoc upgrades. 7 months past OXY where's the ECU RODA upgrade engineering investment bible - which will have a 12mth lead time !!?? No wonder the Market is depressed. When you have pushed the ball of dung upohill with your back legs for 3 years to feed the kids, why sit on it and admire the view?!!
Now We have secured the OXY deal, debt is not a possibility but a necessity, before OXY impossible. We publish $60m invested p.a always, reality is 30% thereof, per annum, with the annuity of the OBA tariff income reduces leveraging risk borrow $50m and GET IN CONTROL, GTE are borrowed 30% of Net Assets $3-400m, so is Geopark, BP is 30% - we are nil and watch the cash pile In Awe. GC thinks its his retirement pot when sanctioning investment.
Our investment needs a realistic strategic review, as do our financial; strategy. Alonso de Ojeda didn't hang about in 1525, they'd still be speaking Injun. I still think we should have acquired a producing field in ECu or JV one. As importantly who will replace DC, JW needs help, IN Country those boots need filling quickly or it will be a very long haul - where other investment with large debt could offer far better returns as they Max their Assets. Sometime a bit of debt keeps the feet pacing and sharpens minds, which is where NH is a muppet and Alex Snow has massively disappointed IMO. Watching a cash pile hides the fact that we are losing pace of growth with our competitors, which is what is happening, at an accelerating pace.
There are areas of the portfolio that have permissions= infra structure but are not invested in. So if we can't drill get RODA min upto 20kbopd - said this 7 mths ago, we are structural breaking barriers to growth no doubt bit not exploiting them. It's like inventing the light bulb and keeping the Oil lamp burning. Rant over - Last point Marketing - Illicit Drugs, AMer PR, UK is the 4th largest User of the Class A drug X - we are investing in the local community to reduce the production of X, educate and support the local communities and assist agricultural production migrate away from World issues - save world police $3bn. Our PR investment?? -Where is the Feel Good Video, this is OLA she is X now she is a chemical engineer Bla Bla - Sometime these feckers should just work for somebody - they need Brian Epstein on PR - I can hear the theme music to the corporate presentation, Beatles Classic - Here, There and Everyway --To lead a better life, I need my Amerisur to be here. GN Chord Prog G Am B C Em.
What a whinge fest. Yes the share price is in the doldrums but surely board election and LTIP aside today wasn’t all bad. The morning RNS rolled up some good news and was timed for effect, but drama factors aside there was good news in it. Today the company announced two wells being drilled simultaneously. When did that last happen? Ever? Two separate blocks being drilled at the same time. They announced current production well above guidance for the year, if either of the two additional wells should see it pass 7,500, the highest ever. Both maybe past 8,000 plus potential reserves uplift. They also announced the first third party crude shipments for OBA, at $5 a barrel 2,000bopd it could be worth $3.5m on the bottom line a year. And they also announced two planned side tracks for Platanillo further upping Plat production. If you really are a holder of this share and want to see some value realisation this is all good surely? It’s the best I have felt about them for weeks. Sol results should be mid June, Plat sooner.
50p possible THIS year surely not we are currently at 12.8p with only 32 weeks before 2020 that is a 400% + . Is this a SERIOUS possibility?