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The share register has been update for the latest quarter to 29/3/24. A number of new institutional investors have appeared holding more than 1% of the shares notably Amarti, Artemis, State Street, Axa and Berenburg. Looks like institutional interest is expanding…
Yep, should just be the start of the re-rating, shares first hit £23 back in September 2021, when the alternative banking division had only just formally launched. Huge latent value present here...
It's hard to believe it barely moved for the past two and a half years. I only hope the wait is over.
There’s still big demand for the shares. Even though the official quote is 20.20 - 20.50 you can sell @ 20.38 ( way over mid)and you have to pay 20.497 to buy. With continuous news flow over the next 4 weeks with the Agm and main listing timetable to come, not to mention new brokers onboarding and share buy backs ,the re-rating should continue at pace.
Certainly was, haven't seen that many delayed trades go through after the bell, certainly a massive tick up in volume, explains the decent tick up today and bodes well going forward. Someone was certainly accumulating in volume today. GL all
Some serious trades going through today!
I was thinking the same, it's actually slightly cheap to buy then sell right now! Could this be about to take off, deffo seems like the MM's are desperate for shares IMO
Classic market maker driven false market right now - the advertised spread is showing £19.60-£20, when in reality it's £20 to sell and £19.99 to buy. It appears that they are desperate for shares, likely due to international buyers loading up whilst it's still under the radar. Would be excellent if we could crack the £23 resistance before moving to the main market (and clearly very much deserved when looking at the fundamentals).
Ps. I note Wise is on the verge of breaking £10, truly astonishing variance in the impact of treasury / interest income on market cap growth vs Alpha.
It is, and even more bizarre to report them on the day they announce the uplisting! I'm hoping that the propsectus will give some detail on number of shares held by PDMR's / staff, as it's a bit of an unknown right now. On that note, it would have been nice if they had disclosed how many shares / unvested options the MD was still holding.
Couple of quarterly data points should land in the next week or two; shareholder movements & average cash balances / interest rates for Q1. Interesting to see where shares head in the next couple of weeks as the change approaches.
Surprising too see director sells though. Maybe it was just to raise some cash.
I think there is a good chance of that happening Koolhead. Resistance at £23 has been insurmountable since it was first tested in August 2021, when that is broken it should provide a major technical boost. Not having the quote driven, market maker controlled SETSqx system meddling with the price should provide a lot of positives, worth reiterating that it is currently almost impossible to buy share in Alpha if you are based outside the UK, you can place bids in the daily auctions but good luck getting filled for any size. All of that changes come next month and I suspect a lot of new liquidity will enter the market.
I think there's a reasonable chance that the recent dip in the SP to the 15-18 range will prove similar to the one of summer 2020, which was followed by a long rally. I'm hoping the main market listing and growing awareness of how good a company this is will power this up to around £35 which strikes me as a more realistic valuation.
Whats this going to do to the share price??
Good to see the Stocko coverage, PI ownership here is abnormally low (HL & II clients only own ~2% of shares) so any sustained PI buying should be a favourable wind.
Alpha currently 2 analysts providing coverage, Liberum and one other that I can't locate the name of. Liberum are valuing the treasury income of a PE of 3 with the cash flow discounted at 9%... Most 250 stocks around Alpha's level have 6-10 analysts covering them, so we should expect to see several 'initiation of coverage' stories in H2. Where they place their price targets is likely dependent on how much info Alpha want to provide them, if they can get hold of some 5 year forecasts then look out!
It’s for subscribers only. Essentially saying the real eps is £2.06 rather than the company/broker view of it being 76p because Treasury income is excluded. Also as the company has £200m cash that needs to excluded when calculating the P/E leading to a P/E of 7. It’s essentially what we’re all aware if you know the real facts/figures rather than the presented ones.
Would you mind sharing the analysis or linking to it? Many thanks
See one of the private investors has done a revised analysis on Stockopedia including interest income in the key metrics indicating how ludicrously undervalued Alpha is - in reality on a P/E of 7 if you exclude the cash it holds. It’s starting to appear on punters radars….
Nice to see the first £20 on the L2 order book spread, still trading at an EV/FCF yield of 16.3% & an EV/ Equity ratio of 2.8x vs the IPO to end 2022 average of 6.2x. A return to the historic average provides a share price target of £36.60 (and a much more sensible EV/FCF yield of 7.5%)...
For the last week we have closed each day on the intraday high, bodes well for tomorrow and next week. Lete hope this is the start of a move back to the mid 2000's prior to a move up to the main market in May! GL all
@sheepy, the UK ISA hasn't helped much? It hasn't even been launched yet! It's likely to start from April 2025.
Alpha has suffered far more from fund outflows than the average LSE share due to the fact it was the most popular UK small cap stock in many fund portfolios. The outflows have been none stop for the last 24 months and Alpha has gone from being a highly rated (for the UK) growth stock on a PE of ~40 at the end of 2021, to a value stock on a PE of ~9x today.
Obviously some of this derating can be explained by Alpha's exceptional prudence with it's treasury income stream. Had the same product been created by 99% of other listed companies then I suspect it would have been dressed up very differently in the accounts and used to pump the share price so that certain parties could benefit. Not so here, which is a great sign for long term holders.
As @koolhead and others have posted over the last few weeks, I think it's fairly obvious that Alpha should continue to thrive over the next 5-10 years. On healthy stock markets like the US, Australia & Scandinavia, it is eminently feasible for £800m small caps to grow into £5b+ mid caps. In the UK it is exceedingly rare, with the only FTSE 100 examples in the last 8-10 years being Diploma, JD Sports & Dechra, (now acquired) . There are more success stories in the 250, with Games Workshop, Softcat, Greggs, Computacenter making it to ~£3b. Behind them you have the likes of 4Imprint, Globaldata, Keywords, Yougov & Alpha who have developed from sub £500m to where they sit today.
Alpha graduating from AIM and leaving market maker derived liquidity behind is a major step in the right direction. They'll need to get more analysts on board and start to provide more colour on medium term revenue & strategy, which should allow shares to reach fair value, i.e. valuing the business on the financial metrics it will produce in 3+ years time...
I think the main risk now is a low ball takeover offer from a US PE outfit, taking advantage of the ridiculous FCF yield that has been created by Alpha's prudence. By low ball I mean £30-35, which judging by recent M&A activity on LSE would likely get a thumbs up from the mainly short sighted bunch of UK fund managers.
My view is that this can be a £100 share in the next few years, perhaps sooner if European equity markets properly recover. That would only see it reach the low end of the FTSE 100. They certainly tick all of the right boxes.
I usually don't do this but I just want to remind that few days ago Alpha transferred 234k shares from treasure to employee schemes so they could be back on the market sooner or later and the remaining 100k shares might be granted to directors after long advertised move to premium market. I'm still holding here but I'm simply not as excited, sorry.
Technicals and fundamentals both looking like they are aligning for a nice move here. I've accumulated heavily in the last couple of months, so I'm happy to sit back and see where it goes from here. Appreciate all the good analysis on this forum as always.
Good to see we have broken out on the chart. I expect Alpha to perform quite nicely over the next couple of months. Catalysts inclyde:
> continued buy backs
>new tax year in April with fresh ISA money
>front running the main market listing in May
Congrats to those who saw the opportunity here and loaded up at the bargain basement prices.
I know they say boring is good but it's been boring for very long time. It looks like nobody is interested in British companies anymore and even UK ISA initiative haven't helped much.
Can now buy at 18.80