London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Company maintaining its progressive dividend policy. Given the current situation these results are outstanding.
They are good, but should the stock really be back at record highs give a quater where earnings halved, and uncertainty is still rife? I'm going to to take a few more profits here I think.
It all depends on your belief in the resilience of the business. I think Q1 this year may not fully recover to last year, but the rest of the year we'll see record growth driven by companies playing catch up. The share price has basically stood still for at least 4 months, surely that's enough? We have still made a profit in the last quarter, and the company has grown.
Try comparing the dividend policy here with the vast majority of FTSE 100 companies. Make your own mind up! I've decided my strategy.
So if I'd told you in December (when the stock price was £23) that AHT Q4 earnings were going to halve, would you have sold? I'm going to say yes. Now the price is £27, but you think it's a hold? It's on 15x last years' earnings, and I wouldn't expect a lot of growth this year given how the first quarter or two might pan out.
Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not selling my entire holding here, but did just let a quarter of it go at 27.70. I'll buy it back if we go back to the low £20s.
I would double my not inconsiderable holding at your price! You have to compare value with the rest of the market AND other investment options. Profit only halved in the quarter, and I expect Q1 to show an improvement on that, and back to normal by Q2. Is a discount really likely? Personally I think not. It's only a hold from me and not a buy because of my holding here already. I'm now close to starting to add more.
I see two brokers have raised their targets here. We could easily be trading over £30 by end 2020
rylidan - So you are saying if I'd told you in December (so pre any covid worries at all) that AHT earnings over the next quarter were going to halve you would have doubled your position!!!?? So you were thinking back in December that the market was discounting something worse than that!!! How can you expect people to take you seriously with a clearly ridiculous assertion like that!
I dont think you get this. Back in December there were other places to invest. The landscape has changed. Yes, the revenue this year will most likely be hit. But lots of other places to invest have been hit harder. Its all about relativity in the environment that you're in.
I disagree - you don't have to invest in any share or indeed the stock market as a whole if you think it represents poor value relative to the fundamentals. If the environment is now worse for equities and this is not reflected in prices, there's plenty of other places you can go to preserve value, and reinvest at better levels.
Ok, let's agree to differ! Can't see this moving back to your "prediction" though. I'm not reducing. Nice to have a share that pays increasing dividends.
Always like to see directors keep their share options. Shows confidence.
and AHT SP is back to where it was before the crash.
FCF of £1bn for full year - wow!
MattTheBrave
I first bought into AHT at 333p and have added to my position over the years, with a few shorter term trades along the way. My holding is now over 40% of my ISA (given I've had a few other companies in my ISA hit hard by Covid) and I agree that there appears to be a growing disconnect between the share price and results, so I've been selling down my position when Mr Market serves up a good price on the day (e.g. today, when I sold a small %).
I'm going to retain a fair bit of my holding as we could see £30 or more given the broker forecasts and momentum, but I'm seeing more risk at the moment. The share price could well take a hit near or after the US election so I've got that on my radar - the business may not change it's performance....I'm more concerned with investors taking a risk off approach for a while until the dust settles, and thus the recent momentum could reverse for a while.
I agree that the dividend does mitigate that risk a little, with relatively few companies paying a solid and rising dividend, but even now we are possibly getting to the point where the s/p is at the point when the yield starts to become less attractive.