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I can smell the oil it's there alright.
Could well(!) be.
They didn't drill further up-dip each time for nothing, they were chasing the oil. Many of the targets to be drilled are further up-dip, and we have oil shows on previous drilling, so it's only logical to say there IS a chance of oil in any untested target further up-dip.
Don't bank on it, but never say never. Its good to dream despite Freddy Krueger trolling the place out..
Never say never RJ? Maybe a sensible mantra so how about I won't say never just not in yours or my lifetime anyway ;0)
You are in a tormenting mood today you buggar
I thank ARA for putting the word 'Oil' very much back in the Ntorya vocabulary. Not a case of a single passing mention either.
CH-1 deeper targets were dropped from the drilling because Tanzania wants the Gas from that trap (same one as at NT-2) commercialised as it's highest priority. Once CH-1 is drilled, Gas can flow from it and the two NT wells, giving Tanzania a very nice supply of the Gas it wants.
After that, all targets are untested, so ARA will be free (from Government demands) to drill into the Cretaceous, Jurassic, Karoo, into the MCT, any level they like, levels where they think there should be Gas, but as the Gas is believed to push any Oil further up-dip, Oil could still be trapped there instead.
Oil can keep moving up-dip, but it has to stop somewhere unless it all seeped out to the surface a long time ago, but the fact the Gas is still trapped there and at high pressure suggests not, as if the Oil seeped out the Gas most certainly would have too. All it takes is faulting to occur and separate the down-dip Gas from the up-dip Oil and the Oil is then trapped forever, no longer in a position to be pushed further up-dip.
"Large structural and stratigraphic traps have the potential to host gas and OIL accumulations including, inter alia, a large untested mass transport complex prospect (“MTC”) which, in terms of structure and depth, closely resembles several of the large-scale offshore accumulations which await development."
"OIL and gas shows are noted in sands identified on mudlogs in Likonde-1 at the levels of the Jurassic post-rift prospects in the block, suggesting the bright amplitudes up-dip of the Likonde-1 well could be potential direct hydrocarbon indicators."
"Deposition occurred during the Early Jurassic in a partially restricted marine environment allowing additional potential OIL and gas source rocks to be deposited and preserved under anoxic conditions. Both the Karoo and Jurassic source rocks are now identified as being potentially mature for OIL and gas generation in the Mtwara Licence"
"The southern of the two mapped lobes is distinct as a separate prospect, but in contrast to the northern fan, the feeder channel has not been preserved potentially aiding up-dip trapping. OIL and gas shows were noted in sandstones in the Likonde-1 Jurassic interval which, when combined with strong indications of fan geometries significantly derisks these prospects."
https://aminex-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/APT-Revised-Resource-Potential-Mtwara-Licence.pdf
I will be very glad when more than just me and RJ turn up to the AGM. Hopefully someone else will ask the question about our prospects for Oil and then any number of those present will be able to tell haggismctripe that Ntorya is NOT an Oil play. Any possibility of that ended when the TPDC told us not to bother drilling the Jurassic targets at CH1 - not that even that was more than a remote possibility.
Dream on mctripe!
I'm sure they are just itching to drill these targets.:
4.2. Jurassic Turbidite Fans and Delta
The Jurassic sequence is mapped in detail over the new 3D seismic where two new prospects and two new conceptual leads are mapped. The two prospects (Postrift A & B) are mapped with high confidence in the Ruvuma 3D and exhibit distinctive amplitude characteristics which are interpreted to represent marine fan deposits e.g. Figure 7. Direct hydrocarbon seismic indicators may be present where the amplitude signatures are significantly elevated above general background values e.g. when compared against areas where there is sand in the Likonde-1 well but no significant measurable gas saturations. Each fan extends over an area of 10’s km² and is represented by a main lobate toe deposit which, in the case of the northernmost fan, is linked directly to a westerly reservoir catchment by a ca 1km wide continuously mapped channel. The southern of the two mapped lobes is distinct as a separate prospect, but in contrast to the northern fan, the feeder channel has not been preserved potentially aiding up-dip trapping. Oil and gas shows were noted in sandstones in the Likonde-1 Jurassic interval which, when combined with strong indications of fan geometries significantly derisks these prospects.
From one of the images:
Figure 7 Example of an amplitude driven play in the Jurassic (Jurassic Postrift A), up-dip of Likonde-1 well. Oil shows are present in the Jurassic section in Likonde-1. Other leads, at the same level, are annotated on the map.
Also worth noting on the notion of Oil being sealed in instead of seeping out:
"4.1.Cretaceous Fans and Mass Transport Complex (MTC)
Thick Santonian marine shale deposits are noted as providing an excellent top seal for all of the deeper Cretaceous prospectivity that has been identified to date"
I have to say that if ARA produce a document that keeps referring to OIl, not just Gas and Concentrate, then they sure think there is a chance of finding it, and will be drilling holes where they think it might be.
Just noticed a typo, Concentrate is obviously meant to say Condensate, darned autocorrect!
Where did RoJo go 🙂
Sssshhhhh. Don't wake him up 😁
Yes OK, ssshhh, he was here late last night, with his usual drivel, but now he's vanished, I expect his mum caught him up late and took his phone off him. 🙂
His MUM?! She must surely be in the Guinness book of records?! :0)
I'm here, watching from a safe distance
Speak of the Devil, literally....
"His MUM?! She must surely be in the Guinness book of records?! :0)"
No, that's Tanzania's mum. Lol 😂
Remind me - I'm a bit out of touch.
Do we have a confirmed development licence yet ?
Yes!
Do we have it in an RNS? Yes!
Do we have the paperwork yet? No!
Do we expect an RNS when the paperwork is issued? Yes
Meanwhile go back to sleep and stop clutching at straws, your time is almost done, although somehow I doubt we will ever be rid of you.
Lunch at the AGM? Don't forget to bring your hat 😁
That's good, thanks, although the paperwork is important.
And the GSA ? Do we know the terms yet ? Is the price of gas agreed ?
Agreed paperwork is important but we now know its coming now.
The GSA, Do we know the terms yet? No, but the company does, as does Ara who have agreed and accepted those terms, no doubt after long and hard negotiation!
Is the price of gas agreed?
Yes! And, without that being the case, there would be no GSA
Excellent !
What is the gas price agreed ?
Is it at well-head or processing plant ?
"Is it at well-head or processing plant ?"
RoJo, for one so old you don't half show your ignorance 🙂
All the basher wants to do is what bashers always do, spread doubt and fear.
It does not want answers to questions, all it wants is to put the doubt and fear into investors minds. If questions then get answered, the basher will then spend hours thinking up some other pointless irrelevant question that it knows most investors won't be able to answer, thus putting the doubt and fear back in the minds of investors.
It never answers questions unless it is with another doubt and fear question.
The gas price hasn't been communicated and speculation is not a good idea.
What was said at last years AGM that it could be higher than previously agreed but I don't recall any specific figures.
I recommend you attend hat in hand and ask the board that very question.
Personally speaking as this is a long term deal, I would think the price might be a flexible one.
Well head or processing plant? I assume that may depend on who ultimately pays the bill for the pipeline.
Again a question for you to ask at the AGM
I feared this might happen!
They've all been allowed out on the same day !