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The 3D Seismic report shows 55.2m barrels of condensate for Ntorya.
https://aminex-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/APT-Revised-Resource-Potential-Mtwara-Licence.pdf
TPDC recently put out a tender for the sale of some condensate from Mtwara, at US$587.21 per tonne:
OFFER FOR E SPOT PURCHASE OF CONDENSATE FOB MTWARA
Date: 29/02/2024
Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) is a National Oil Company of Tanzania
participating and holds commercial interest on behalf of the Government of Tanzania for oil and natural
gas projects and other value addition activities including Songosongo condensate.
TPDC (Seller) hereby calls for eligible firms for a spot purchase of 1594.031MT +/- 5% of condensate FOB
Mtwara at Mtwara Bulk Storage Terminal.
Seller offers to sell condensate at a minimum price of USD 587.21 per metric ton (VAT inclusive) which
caters for all costs and TPDC’s margin. Therefore, Seller invites interested Buyer(s) to submit offers for
purchase of the Condensate at or above provided price however, Price is subject to increase by
51.68USD/MT per month to cater for storage charges.
https://tpdc.co.tz/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/INVITATION-FOR-CONDENSATE-SPOT-PURCHASE-FOB-MTWARA-3.pdf
The nearest I can get, and it's probably pretty close, to how many barrels of condensate in a tonne, is:
"Since one barrel equals 131.27 kg and a tonne is 1000 kg, we have a tonne of WTi being equal to 7.618 barrels."
Based on that, 55,200,000 barrels of condensate would be 7,245,996 tonnes
At a price of US$587.21 per tonne is worth US$4,254,921,311
As this is a Gas field the recovery rate should be higher that with Oil fields:
"The average RF from mature oilfields around the world is somewhere between 20% and 40% [1–3]. This contrasts with a typical RF from gas fields of between 80% and 90%."
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2012.0320#:~:text=The%20average%20RF%20from%20mature,last%2054%20years%20%5B4%5D.
Is it possible to syphon off the condensate at the wellhead? How could it be delivered?
I thought Jay was talking that way back in the day. Perhaps Crusty or Ufufuo can confirm?
Btw SC When I dud the sums a few weeks ago based on price per barrel I got similar total value, which is why I questioned why nobody was talking about. Even if they get 10% of it out, it still holds massive value.
For those wondering what it is.... Condensate is a mixture of light liquid hydrocarbons, similar to a very light (high API) crude oil. It is typically separated out of a natural gas stream at the point of production (field separation) when the temperature and pressure of the gas is dropped to atmospheric conditions.
Gaslady, yes, sort of. Not syphoning off exactly, but they will need to create an "offtake" facility - typically but not exclusively some form of separation and capture (often bottling) capability.
RogerJolly,
Yes that's right.
Also, condensate was produced at NT-2 so it it definitely in that trap.
"The NT-2 appraisal well is located approximately 1,500 metres southwest of the Ntorya-1 ("NT-1") discovery well, which flow tested at 20 million cubic feet per day of gas ("mmscfd") with 139 barrels associated condensate from a 3.5 metre interval at the top of a 20 metre Cretaceous sandstone pay zone at a depth of approximately 2,600 metres. The NT-2 well is expected to test the up-dip part of the same channel complex as the NT-1 discovery well in a thicker gross reservoir section."
On that basis, 140mmscfd would also produce 973 barrels of Condensate.
Based on the calculation in the opening post on this thread, that is worth US75,000 per day, which is US$27,375,000 per annum. 25% to Aminex would be US$6,843,750 per annum.
Let's hope it gives those sort of returns 👍
For sure. 140mmscfd at the average well head price for Gas in Tanzania of US$3.6212 per mcf is worth $46,260,830 per annum, add the condensate and we get to US$53,104,580 or £41,831,104 revenues to Aminex, fully carried to that position, with very low overheads, and with Market Cap of currently only £67.38m.
https://www.pura.go.tz/uploads/files/Pooled%20Wellhead%20Natural%20Gas%20Price%202023.pdf
$46,260,830 per annum is Aminex's cut, obviously.
Well whatever it turns out to be there won't be any taxes to pay for a while