The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"with the aim of defining preliminary 1p and 2p reserve estimates" is how you can get AEX from a £57.90m market cap to a huge one prior to producing huge amounts of gas from the field. With 8 to 11.2 TCF recoverable. 2TCF to 2.8TCF to AEX is worth $6,000,000,000 to $8,400,000,000. Compared to the £57.90m market cap the 1p and 2p for CH-1, NT-1 and NT-2 should make AEX significantly undervalued based on the below. And the full field even more so.
"Enterprise Value/Proven and Probable Reserves
This is enterprise value compared to proven and probable reserves (2P). It's an easily calculated metric which requires no estimates or assumptions. It helps analysts understand how well its resources will support the company's operations.
Reserves can be proven, probable, or possible reserves. Proven reserves are typically known as 1P. Many analysts refer to it as P90, or having 90% probability of being produced. Probable reserves are referred to as P50 or having a 50% certainty of being produced. When used in conjunction with one another, they are referred to as 2P.
The EV/2P ratio should not be used in isolation, since reserves are not all the same. However, it can still be an important metric if little is known about the company's cash flow. When this multiple is high, the company would trade at a premium for a given amount of oil in the ground. A low value would suggest a potentially undervalued firm."
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/11/common-multiples-used-in-oil-and-gas-valuation.asp
Be realistic CP - even the buys "at full ask" are miniscule.... we need volume and value before the MM' are going to respond with an sp rise. Or are you saying that, on L2, you can see that volume?
By the way Ufufuo I have very little, if any, confidence in anything that comes from shard Capital.
Do a little Googling of the headline below.
"FCA fines and bans ex-Shard Capital CEO Lewis".
Oh and by the way, not much has changed there since his departure, in my opinion.
Edgar222,
As the ARA+AEX licence was signed off just a couple of weeks ago, there no way they are going to change anything with us, they consider it a fair deal.
"Applied for a 25-year Development Licence based on the approved FDP. Approved by the Tanzanian authorities, including Cabinet sign-off, and awaiting issuance of the signed licence from the Ministry of Energy."
In 2023 and early 2024, the following milestones were achieved: The approval by Tanzanian authorities for the Development Licence, including Cabinet sign-off, awaiting issuance of the signed licence from the Ministry of Energy
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEX/final-results-and-annual-report-2023-5onuhdyrzg3aajq.html
Should tick up before long, despite the attempts to manipulate the market with £1.34 sells
The African asset financing company Watu is extending its support for compressed natural gas (CNG)-powered three-wheelers in Tanzania, aiming to finance at least 1,000 of these CNG-powered vehicles by the end of 2024. The project will intensify efforts to transition the transport sector to cleaner energy sources.
Watu already financed over 200 CNG-powered three-wheelers worth TSHS 2.2 billion (EUR 100 million) in the past two months alone.
The new initiative was recently officially launched in the presence of the Ilala district commissioner, who highlighted the collaborative efforts of the government and private sector through public-private partnerships, Watu said in a press release. (ben)
Don't tell me you're having doubts Edgar ?!?
5year? 91joyo - it is longer than that actually. The wheels turn slowly in Tanzania.
For the information you ask for I suggest that you actually read the RNS's of the last 2/3 years and you will find your answers. You may need Google translate to help you out.
Have you ever attended an AGM? Oh sorry, no, of course not - you would actually have to own some shares for that wouldn't you?
Do you really think that you are going to unsettle AEX shareholders of 5, 10, 15 years standing with your ridiculous vacuous, simplistic headlines - sorry 91joyo, we have seen it many times and from people that are much, much better at it than you.
You are making yourself look like the village idiot.
I suggest that you really try and find something better to do.
Don't spend all that £1.34 at the tuck shop
oh really?i think i am older than u.
so.tellme is that rns around the hell corner?or where is license one months already.how long take.u guys really forgot first gsa sign years ago. and how long to take toget them when issued?
simple .license not even signed. no drilling location .no plan for anything.scir out of market soon . how long will be aminex ?if tanzania keep do the same ****
91joro get to school and learn something .again today you mention drugs ,i would bet that you are a taker of cana**** .
Than after 5year where is licensce.and where is ch-1drilling location?tell me pls
91joyo do you really think that any of the LTH of AEX give two hoots about daily sp movements, let alone hour by hour movements? If so you really are far more stupid that it first appeared; FYI AEX sp has risen by 75% in just the last few weeks - I don't give a monkey's cuss about what the sp does on a daily or hourly basis and so you are totally wasting your time attempting to scare anyone on this board with trivial micro movements - unlike you we have been here for a long time and have seen it all before.
Actually, why are you here? What are you trying to achieve?
Too much drug everyone.Tanzania talk too much .butno brown evelope .u will never get anything back
Put it away, you really don't want to make a mess again.
I confess to nervousness at the news of the Tz Govt re-opening the LNG negotiations. Essentially ripping up the agreements and seeking more from the investors. I note that the new minister (and deputy PM) is at the forefront of this. And he is the one we have been relying on (in the media) for the fact that our licence is approved.
Have been wondering if it was just me.
So the reason I am satisfied its all ok (I think) is that those media reports from the LNG issue suggest that it was the cabinet that sent the agreement back to be re-opened? Whereas the media reports relating to out licence suggest that cabinet has rubber stamped/approved the licence.
Am just setting this out so I can be corrected if anyone thinks I have this wrong.
"with the aim of defining preliminary 1p and 2p reserve estimates"
Once ARA book reserves, we will have a new, staggering Net Asset Value for big investors to base the share price on.
Ufufuo,
RE: AGM " expect this to be a good one"
The recent run of very bullish Twitter posts from Aminex certainly points to that.
Oh dear...really..how about today
I think you may have a problem with premature ejaculation my friend as yesterday proved, your excitement at negativity didn't last long.
10% up wasn't it?
Excitement finished
Oh, and AGM next month. I expect they will want to put on a show! They made a big effort last year. Lots of info. The seismic interpretation team there. Shard Capital too. With the news due and new PR firm in place, I expect this to be a good one 👍
And this paragraph is telling you why the CH-1 well is going to be one of the most exciting well drilled in a long long time. Its targeting an additional 4.5 TCF of gas, that's on top of the 3.45 TCF. That's nearly 8 TCF that's just for the Ntorya accumulation. It's mind bogling. 😀
"furthermore, the new 3d seismic images a possibly even larger area of gas charged reservoir sandstones, beyond the high confidence area established by the new seismic inversion modelling. this provides for potential additional prospective gas volumes associated with the cretaceous age sand units tested in nt-1 and nt-2 (units 1 and 2) and for the possible existence of an as yet undrilled shallower sand unit (unit 3), to be tested by the forthcoming chikumbi-1 (ch-1) appraisal well later in the year. an upside aggregated giip volume for the ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at ch-1, is estimated by apt to be up to 7.95 tcf (approximated to a mean unrisked p10 giip)."
Hi StockCheque, will go through all of that later and will come back to you 👍
A good reminder from Roger about the 3D seismic results just now. A World Class Giant (less than 1% of gas fields worldwide are Super Giants or World Class Giants!)!
Also worth a reminder that we are at a pivotal point in Aminex’s history and in terms of news due. The last year or two included the 3D seismic (largest ever survey onshore in East Africa they reckon!) but was largely focused on getting the agreements in place to fully secure the asset, so that ARA can race ahead and drill and develop the field…spending another $100m+ with confidence (for which Aminex is fully carried).
Shareholders have long understood these to be the things that needed to be cleared out of the way:
✅ Scirocco deal done (their 25% of Ruvuma going to ARA)
✅ Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) signed
✅ Field Development Plan approved
✅ 25-Year Development License approved by all parties
Those were the things that shareholders said needed to be ticked off before ARA cracks on with drilling - that last one has all approvals and is just awaiting issue by TPDC to ARA.
Production is expected within ~12 months. They’ve got to create the CH1 pad, transport and mobilise that rig, drill CH1, demobilise it, move it to the NT1 site to complete the workover on that well. They will presumably want to build in some contingency and plan to have that lot done comfortably in advance of completion of the pipeline and first gas.
So, the final bit of paperwork is just about to be issued. The one that ARA says “secures the asset”. Then, they have a great deal to do in 12 months or less. So, all those facts point to news very soon, including schedule for drilling CH1.
According to stockbrokers Shard Capital, Aminex is very undervalued at these prices. A great opportunity IMHO.