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Than after 5year where is licensce.and where is ch-1drilling location?tell me pls
91joyo do you really think that any of the LTH of AEX give two hoots about daily sp movements, let alone hour by hour movements? If so you really are far more stupid that it first appeared; FYI AEX sp has risen by 75% in just the last few weeks - I don't give a monkey's cuss about what the sp does on a daily or hourly basis and so you are totally wasting your time attempting to scare anyone on this board with trivial micro movements - unlike you we have been here for a long time and have seen it all before.
Actually, why are you here? What are you trying to achieve?
Too much drug everyone.Tanzania talk too much .butno brown evelope .u will never get anything back
Put it away, you really don't want to make a mess again.
I confess to nervousness at the news of the Tz Govt re-opening the LNG negotiations. Essentially ripping up the agreements and seeking more from the investors. I note that the new minister (and deputy PM) is at the forefront of this. And he is the one we have been relying on (in the media) for the fact that our licence is approved.
Have been wondering if it was just me.
So the reason I am satisfied its all ok (I think) is that those media reports from the LNG issue suggest that it was the cabinet that sent the agreement back to be re-opened? Whereas the media reports relating to out licence suggest that cabinet has rubber stamped/approved the licence.
Am just setting this out so I can be corrected if anyone thinks I have this wrong.
"with the aim of defining preliminary 1p and 2p reserve estimates"
Once ARA book reserves, we will have a new, staggering Net Asset Value for big investors to base the share price on.
Ufufuo,
RE: AGM " expect this to be a good one"
The recent run of very bullish Twitter posts from Aminex certainly points to that.
Oh dear...really..how about today
I think you may have a problem with premature ejaculation my friend as yesterday proved, your excitement at negativity didn't last long.
10% up wasn't it?
Excitement finished
Oh, and AGM next month. I expect they will want to put on a show! They made a big effort last year. Lots of info. The seismic interpretation team there. Shard Capital too. With the news due and new PR firm in place, I expect this to be a good one 👍
And this paragraph is telling you why the CH-1 well is going to be one of the most exciting well drilled in a long long time. Its targeting an additional 4.5 TCF of gas, that's on top of the 3.45 TCF. That's nearly 8 TCF that's just for the Ntorya accumulation. It's mind bogling. 😀
"furthermore, the new 3d seismic images a possibly even larger area of gas charged reservoir sandstones, beyond the high confidence area established by the new seismic inversion modelling. this provides for potential additional prospective gas volumes associated with the cretaceous age sand units tested in nt-1 and nt-2 (units 1 and 2) and for the possible existence of an as yet undrilled shallower sand unit (unit 3), to be tested by the forthcoming chikumbi-1 (ch-1) appraisal well later in the year. an upside aggregated giip volume for the ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at ch-1, is estimated by apt to be up to 7.95 tcf (approximated to a mean unrisked p10 giip)."
Hi StockCheque, will go through all of that later and will come back to you 👍
A good reminder from Roger about the 3D seismic results just now. A World Class Giant (less than 1% of gas fields worldwide are Super Giants or World Class Giants!)!
Also worth a reminder that we are at a pivotal point in Aminex’s history and in terms of news due. The last year or two included the 3D seismic (largest ever survey onshore in East Africa they reckon!) but was largely focused on getting the agreements in place to fully secure the asset, so that ARA can race ahead and drill and develop the field…spending another $100m+ with confidence (for which Aminex is fully carried).
Shareholders have long understood these to be the things that needed to be cleared out of the way:
✅ Scirocco deal done (their 25% of Ruvuma going to ARA)
✅ Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) signed
✅ Field Development Plan approved
✅ 25-Year Development License approved by all parties
Those were the things that shareholders said needed to be ticked off before ARA cracks on with drilling - that last one has all approvals and is just awaiting issue by TPDC to ARA.
Production is expected within ~12 months. They’ve got to create the CH1 pad, transport and mobilise that rig, drill CH1, demobilise it, move it to the NT1 site to complete the workover on that well. They will presumably want to build in some contingency and plan to have that lot done comfortably in advance of completion of the pipeline and first gas.
So, the final bit of paperwork is just about to be issued. The one that ARA says “secures the asset”. Then, they have a great deal to do in 12 months or less. So, all those facts point to news very soon, including schedule for drilling CH1.
According to stockbrokers Shard Capital, Aminex is very undervalued at these prices. A great opportunity IMHO.
2... estimated by APT to contain a total Pmean unrisked GIIP potential of 8.43 Tcf (excluding Ntorya). These new plays and prospectivity currently identified to date contain a risked Pmean GIIP exploration potential of ca 2.2 Tcf. Ongoing work, including advanced seismic imaging and reinterpretation of existing wells, is being undertaken to reduce geological uncertainty and mature the new exploration portfolio. The new volumetric studies result in a total updated unrisked GIIP volume for the Mtwara Licence of 16.38 Tcf.
APT's Report on the revised volumetrics will be posted on the Aminex website (www.Aminex-plc.com) today.
· 3d seismic improves ntorya gas field volumetrics and reveals enormous wider potential
· operator's geomodelling significantly increases ntorya giip to 3.45 tcf
· 3d seismic reveals considerable upside for mtwara licence with total unrisked giip of 16.38 tcf
aminex, the oil and gas exploration and development company focused on tanzania, is pleased to announce that the interpretation of the recently acquired 338 km2 3d seismic dataset over the ruvuma psa has improved the in-place volumetrics for the ntorya gas discovery and revealed a significantly higher resource potential in the wider licence area than previously identified on the existing sp**** 2d database.
the interpretation of the 3d seismic has been completed by the ruvuma psa operator, ara petroleum tanzania (apt). seismic inversion geomodelling, undertaken in collaboration with ikon geoscience, has defined a high confidence area with a revised in-place volumetric estimate for the ntorya gas discovery. a most-likely (approximating to p50) estimate of 3.45 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas initially in place (giip) is now believed to be potentially connected to the reservoir sandstones encountered in the ntorya-1 (nt-1) and ntorya-2 (nt-2) discovery wells. this revised ntorya volume represents a substantial increase to the published p50 giip of 1.64 tcf estimated by rps energy (rps) in their february 2018 competent person's report (cpr).
furthermore, the new 3d seismic images a possibly even larger area of gas charged reservoir sandstones, beyond the high confidence area established by the new seismic inversion modelling. this provides for potential additional prospective gas volumes associated with the cretaceous age sand units tested in nt-1 and nt-2 (units 1 and 2) and for the possible existence of an as yet undrilled shallower sand unit (unit 3), to be tested by the forthcoming chikumbi-1 (ch-1) appraisal well later in the year. an upside aggregated giip volume for the ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at ch-1, is estimated by apt to be up to 7.95 tcf (approximated to a mean unrisked p10 giip).
rps has been engaged to undertake a revision of their 2018 cpr to support the initial field development plan. the study is likely to focus on a much narrower area of the reservoir, surrounding the two existing wells and ch-1 location that will be targeted for initial production, with the aim of defining preliminary 1p and 2p reserve estimates. these reserve estimates are expected to increase substantially as phased development and project maturation progresses in light of the results of the newly reported apt interpretation studies.
the 3d dataset has also revealed, for the first time, considerable undrilled exploration potential within the broader licence area. multiple undrilled structural and stratigraphic plays spanning a range of geological intervals are estimated by apt to contain a total pmean unrisked giip potential of 8.43 tcf
Ignore the troll talking trollocks, it's just the long term Aminex stock basher, never held the stock, just bashes it day in day out, quite possibly a disgruntled ex-employee or something, best to just add them to your filter as everything they write is fantasy invented in their mind to try and scare people away from the truth, that this is a really good stock to be in, and you can still get in on the ground floor at the current market cap.
Hang on haggis!
Tanzania are not building pipelines anywhere!
They're just talking about it!
Anyway, lets see what tomorrow brings.
4p and I'm gone!
Very odd that you lot can't grasp the fact that there is more than one poster unconvinced by the merits here.
So joyo is my son, and I have multiple avatars.
Weird ! Do I believe that stockCheque and jollyboy are related or the same poster ? or smudger and gasgirl ?
Ufufuo,
Following on from my previous post, after more thinking.
The 3D seismic completely changes the economics of the project, making it viable to significantly increase production earlier, with no effect on the expected lifetime of the resource. Forget what was behind the 140mmscfd plan, ARA now have a completely different resource to base the development plan on, and much bigger production should easily be possible. I was one of those shouting for 3D seismic over Ruvuma way before they made it a plan, as Mike Rego said it was the only way to really work out what was down there, as the complex geology was not easy to understand on 2D seismic.
Tanzania are also building pipelines to Uganda and Kenya, possibly to Zambia as well. The LNG plant is going nowhere now as the government want to change the deal, but those big oil majors wont want to concede any of the profitability as they are the ones that will need to borrow and pay back the funding for it. So significantly increasing the Ntorya output would help fill those pipelines to other countries.
I suspect an updated field development plan to be forthcoming, maybe not this year but certainly after CH-1 is drilled and they can see what max output they can go to, and once stable money is flowing in to us and ARA.
Imo ? well obviously it's your opinion sharehead !
Who's opinion could it be otherwise !
Jigsaw pieces all falling into place imo
Nice little rise ahead of news / drill / gas producing. Won't be long and Rojo plus it's two pen sharers (Yoyo and Pork product) will be well and truly silenced. Be good for the LTH to silence the rats trying to take advantage of folk.
Ufufuo,
Going back to your numbers and scenarios posted earlier on this thread, maybe there is another scenario that's not yet been offered up.
"produces at a rate of 140mmscfd"
If we are looking at 16TCF for the Ntorya area, a quarter of that is AEX Gas, 4TCF.
4 TCF = 4,000,000,000 MCF
https://www.kylesconverter.com/volume/trillion-cubic-feet-to-thousands-of-cubic-feet
For Kiliwani Gas "Aminex will receive USD 3.00 per mmbtu (approximately USD 3.07 per mcf)" and we know the newer Gas prices are higher, but let's just stick with $3 for the moment.
USD 3 x 4,000,000,000 = $12,000,000,000
Gas recovery. We know it's Gas pressure that sends the gas up the well, so 50-70 percent recovery.
"Gas expansion 50–70%"
https://wiki.aapg.org/Predicting_hydrocarbon_recovery
That would give the area 8 to 11.2 TCF recoverable. 2TCF to 2.8TCF to AEX worth $6,000,000,000 to $8,400,000,000. If only AEX could book that as a resource sometime.
And why stop at a rate of 140mmscfd, when that was based on the much smaller resource, and making it last 25 years.
With 16TCF they could produce at a much higher rate, 4x, 5x or even more, so long as they have pipelines capable of transporting it, and it would still last 25 years or more.
Then your valuations that are based on revenues would be 4x or 5x too.