Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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Starvest (SVE) have a half yearly report out today which praises both GGP and AAU:
Ariana Resources (LON:AAU) continues to report good silver-gold production results from its Kiziltepe Mine. Annual production in 2019 exceed guidance by over 10% as well as reducing operating costs in the last quarter from US$540 to US$500 and the Company has now completed 100% repayment of its $33m capital loan on the mine as reported on 1 May 2020. Q1 2020 preliminary results are continuing to show strong results again with production exceeding average annualised quarterly guidance by 14% at 5,129 oz at an average grade of 3.22g/t gold. Ariana has also been continuing exploration on its 100% owned Kizilcukur project with a view to possibly developing the deposit as a satellite to the Kiziltepe Mine.
I've not been at it long, just over a month and I'm under no illusions about it. You're right, it's said 90% of traders lose money, but that covers a hell of a wide area, cfds, forex, spread betting, shorting, crypto etc. I'm not trading a massive amount of money at the moment, less than 5 figures spread across my portfolio and I am up, but only because I feel (looking back) I got lucky with one particular share - HEMO. Bought some at 4.2p and 6.2p and got out at 10p, then bought again at 10.2 when it still looked like it had momentum and managed to get out at 14.2p before selling engulfed it. Today it sits at 7p. Without that one share I would be 13% down instead of 15% up. I'm reading a lot, learning, trying to analyse charts and volume, look at fundamentals and obviously I'm going to make mistakes.
Anyway, to early to say, but I wonder if gold bottomed yesterday around $1695? Currently around $1722 so bounced back nicely. AAU seem to hold up well yesterday, with the bid remaining at 4p.
From my own experience it’s always more profitable to hold long term. Others will say different but there’s been many times when I’ve traded and then ‘missed the boat’, to the point where I would be a lot wealthier now if I’d held on to a few stocks rather than trading. Trading does have its advantages though when it comes to increasing your holding, especially if you buy back in the next day.
The question is do you make money trading. They say and I can’t quote the exact number, but most lose money trading. I’ve found it is generally a game of patience built on solid research into basic fundamentals. I have a tick list to go through and seek out red flags. I don’t think any share can be devoid totally of any red flags but then the balance of risk comes into play. Two of the key ones I look for on the positive side are quality of the mgmt. and a proven delivery record and if they have skin in the game.
I agree, but then so will loads of other shares be - & I'll doubt I'll hold long enough to realise the gains. Typically, more or less as I sold, gold has turned and gone the other way - c'est la vie. I just look at shares that have made new yearly highs now preferably on above average volume & AAU caught my eye after breaking roughly 3.65p after 4 or 5 attempts. I'm the opposite to VanVan in my time scale, I'm looking to trade & I think this has the potential to move up quite quickly. Funnily enough this was the first online share I bought roughly 8 years ago for about 3p.
I was fascinated by how people think differently. I started investing here probably 10 years ago but accumulated big time once it retraced to under a 1p a few years ago. I think in terms of years, not months, days or hours! And the same with gold. It isn't going south imo. You get overbought positions and corrections but the fundamentals support higher prices of gold, silver and gold miners imo. Let the traders do what they want but here the story is getting stronger and the outlook over the next 5 years is in the multi bagger category imo. Very happy to remain long & strong as they say.
Got to say, gold actions have put me off a bit, now below $1700 and silver has turned red as well, after being up a bit. I've sold for the time being and will watch from the side. Don't fancy being caught holidng on to gold stocks if there is a full blown sell off in gold after LSE market closes 4.30pm.
Hi John, I believe it would be accrued in the accounts, but the actual 'cash' settlement is on or before 30 June each year and is, therefore, included in cash costs for Q2. I noted that Dr S repeated the $600 average life of mine cash cost in the Proactive interview yesterday. Given that 2018 costs were $415 per oz and 2019 is likely to be around $500, it is not unreasonable to expect 2020 costs to be moving towards or even over $600 later in the year, especially when you consider the jump last year from $399 in Q1 to $589 in Q2. If that differential repeats, then Q2 is likely to be closer to $700.
Cheers, Ash
Ash
Your analysis well measured and factual as always. I too realised that costs will be significantly higher next quarter due to the Government rights - is there any accounting reason why this right (projected based on guidance) isn't spread across all quarters with a tidy up adjustment in July? That would be a more honest representation in my view. Does Dr S' oft repeated $600 long term cost include the State right? Does make me feel costs are understated, especially with the other costs that we know are omitted.
SP doing well, unusual in the current climate.
Do you think it will test 3.65 again, just something in my water says it’s going to suck in before finding new highs?
I think it looks pretty bullish on the charts. It had 4 or 5 goes to break 3.65 and hold and when it finally did I bought in. That 3.65 should now become support but it hasn't come anywhere near it after breaking out on 18/5. Big candle on the 22/5 and now a big hammer on above average volume on a day when gold is down. Looks like there's still an appetite for buying. I added today.
I think everyone has always been careful to refer to CAPEX loans being repaid. Working Capital facilities are normal for most businesses. However in Turkey they are constructed slightly differently as they operate more like a loan with a set repayment term.
We are only responsible for 50% of the outstanding amount of course.
Looking at metrics on the charts a lot of the indicators are saying we are on the edge.
Can it keep rising?
Let us await results, I suspect strict traders will be out of it before then if they are not already and are the shorters hovering?
Does anyone have access to the order books?
Normally, I would say yes, but because the new auditors are also reporting the prior year comparatives as well as the 2019 results, they need to be satisfied with the KPMG numbers, which involves a bit more work than usual. Hopefully, this has all been built in to their audit timetable to allow the results to be reported at the same time as last year. Sooner would be even better.
Cheers, Ash
Final results were June 5th last year.
Are we to expect them around a similar time this year?
Judging by the share price movement today, the initial drop was due to the traders who sell on news.
After a pause for breath mid morning, those very shares are moving to the long term holders.
Building an extremely solid base for further news to come in the next couple of weeks.
Excellent day so far
Going off the RNS it appears that there are still loans outstanding to the JV partners.
Hi CK, I always assumed that the inter-company loans from AAU and Proccea would be equal in size as it is a JV and that these needed to be repaid before dividends could be paid from Zenit. Now this has now happened, it might be reasonable to assume that those loans have also been settled leaving just the working capital loan to be repaid.
All fairly positive this morning. Cash costs were up, but below my worst case scenario, which perhaps allowed for too much inflation. Below Q3 2019, which probably reflects the fall in the TL over the period, but above Q4, which reflects the lower output.
As last year, we can expect a bigger then normal jump in cash costs in Q2 because the Turkish Govt State Right for the 12 months will need to be settled by 30 June, but costs should return to trend for the remainder of the year.
Cheers, Ash
As I read it, the JV had four principal liabilities: -
1. Capital construction loan (now fully repaid)
2. Working Capital Loan (to be repaid october 21)
3. Loan from AAU, (being repaid how much total, how much monthly)
4. Loan from Proccea (as 3.)
Morning GA.
I was under the impression that KS was referring to AAU being debt free (though no mention of the perpetual outstanding liabilities) rather than the JV, or am I confused as normal?
Regards
Hi VV et al. Well a lot of sells, relative to recent trading pattern, absorbed this morning.
One issue I have is that a lot of emphasis has been placed by our boss on the repayment of the JV outstanding loan, yet we still have a debt of $8.5m. Even though we are becoming debt free, I think there has been a bit of overuse of the debt free comments. Yes we are paying off debt at a very healthy rate but we have debt until we have NO DEBT. Then and only then should this be really promoted. Just my take on this.
I do appreciate that the likes of us were always aware of all the finances, however it has been easy to forget that a bank loan does exist and has been fully drawn down.
SB/GA