London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Skittish, if I’m your detailed research you come across Lord Lucan I believe there is still a reward out on him then you could buy Angus out yourself.
Paul Forrest knows more than we think as he as a stakeholder in saltfleeby would have to be informed of any buy out or offer made.
Irishmouse - I'm getting ready to launch!
But to be honest, whilst it was great fun (you can't do it anymore as the information is behind a expensive paywall) in the end a fat lot of good it did me and everybody else at AAOG. Quite the opposite, actually. Just goes to show that not having the complete picture can lead you astray - and we certainly don't appear to have been given the full picture certainly as regards the financial health of AAOG.
Now I'm no conspiracy theorist - however - some may not agree....
But it is interesting to try to join dots, even if the conclusions may not be entirely accurate, because as an outsider you only ever have a small % of the information, by which I mean 5% or less, whilst the true players have 100% of the information and can run rings without even having to try.
On the various ANGS threads the contributors appear to be winding themselves up into ever decreasing circles, posting ever more furiously what has been posted many times before, without contributing anything new.
Maybe they are missing the bigger picture (or maybe they are not) - but things like the registered office of Forum Energy Services Limited, which owns Saltfleetby Energy Limited which in turn owns Saltfleetby Energy Europe Limited are all the same - 32 Grosvenor Gardens SW1W 0DH - not particular surprise there.
This is not doubt just a fancy mail address in a serviced office building, and no actual business may be transacted there. It may well be a super efficient operation; but since 21-9-2021 it is also the registered office address of Lucan Fashion Limited, which presumably is the vehicle for Lady Lucan's fashion business. It may be nothing, but one of the directors of Lucan Fashion is George Charles Lucan who is also the CEO of Angus Energy.
As I say, maybe nothing.
But I have revisited my "conspiracy" timeline (see previous post) and added in a few new entries, the new entries are marked with and asterisk "*".
It is up to people to read into the timeline anything they wish - or nothing, if they so choose.
But one could wonder at the appointment of directors with previous Russian/CIS experience a couple of months prior to the Saltfleetby operation, then run by Gazprom becoming available.
Or Saltflletby Energy Limited getting £14 cash from Gazprom for decommissioning costs, whilst only paying Angus £2.5M for 51% of those costs, the rest apparently going to restart the field, and buying 25% of AAOG.
Or Riverfort muscling into the AAOG financing deal just a few weeks later, the new yet to be purchased shares being used by AAOG's Chairman to control the company
Or AAOG declaring itself flat broke just 10 days after the transfer of Saltfleetby is approved by UK authorities, the only option for AAOG is to sell everything an turn into a shell investment vehicle.
Even if it is all coincidence it certainly makes for an interesting timeline.
How about this for a revised ("completely fictional") conspiracy timeline -
6-3-19 - After a big boardroom spat ANGS appoints new directors many with CIS/Russian experience
10-5-19 - ANGS announces open offer to raise £3M, mentions new UK gas opportunity it can buy into for £1!
*7-6-19 - AAOG says has "great confidence" will produce Djeno oil
17-6-19 - Forum Energy Services acquires Saltfleetby gas field from Gazprom and is paid £14M in decommissioning costs
19-6-19 - Forum sells 51% of Saltfleetby to ANGS and pays them £2.5M
*3-7-19 - AAOG proposes to raise £8.25M funded from EHGOF
*8-7-19 - AAOG receives offer of funding from "other parties"
*12-7-19 - AAOG agrees new funding with Riverfort (R also funds ANGS)
16-7-19 - Staff move to ANGS from Wingas, which was owned by Gazprom
*17-7-19 - AAOG completes financing with R, AAOG Chairman controls all shares to be issued to Riverfort
13-9-19 - Sefton goes, is "thanked"
*22-10-19 - AAOG signs nonbinding term sheet for $25M offtake and pre payment financing to develop Tilapia
*12-11-19 - AAOG signs "rig option agreement" to drill Tilapia, and further 4 wells, commencing "Q1/Q2 2020"
2-12-19 - UK authorities approve transfer of Saltfleetby from Gazprom to ANGS/Forum
*11-12-19 - AAOG announces it is in fact broke, and has no money for anything
*16-12-19 - Berwick resigns from AAOG, is not "thanked"
*23-12-19 - AAOG receives offer for Tilapia from ZEN
27-12-19 - AAOG calls AGM to approve sale Tilapia to ZEN for £1M, afterwards will be shell - AAOG board says its this or bust
*2-1-20 - AAOG dismisses alternative proposal from ex AAOG director
13-1-20 - AAOG AGM approves disposal, *£1M for 80% Tilapia, Chairman using unissued R shares to push proposal through
20-1-20 - Forum Energy Services increases stake in AAOG 2% to 23% buying Riverfort shares @ 0.5p (R also ANGS financier)
5-3-20 - ANGS CPR ascribing low/med/high values of 2.9p/4.4p/6.1p to ANGS shares for 51% of Saltfleetby
6-4-20 - Forum increases AAOG stake to 25% - using part of the £14M Gazprom money
*17-4-19 - AAOG revises sale price to £200K for 100% Tilapia
4-5-20 - *GM approves sale, Forum votes in favour, AAOG sells Tilapia for £200K, now a shell, 6 months to do a deal
12-8-20 - ANGS agrees offtake agreement with Shell
23-9-20 - ANGS negotiating £12M loan facility
12-10-20- Forum creates new subsidiary Saltfleetby Energy Europe Limited
4-11-20 - AAOG suspended
4-5-21 - AAOG enters into agreement t with Saltfleetby Energy to buy 25% of Saltfleetby gas field for £8M in shares
5-5-21 - AAOG delisted
13-5-21 - ANGS agrees £12M loan facility for Saltfleetby with Forum Energy Services as guarantor
17-5-21 - Forum registers charges at Companies House
22-10-21 - ANGS revised CPR, expected 1st gas date Feb/March 2022
10/11/12 -21 Saltfleetby construction moves apace
6-1-22 - ANGS receives offer for the Company and/or Saltfleetby from unknown (to us) bidder(s)
Not necessarily 800m but £1.75m
They should cancel the General Meeting really
Thanks Skittish for you time you have put in and you better launch a new satellite and get it ready incase we need it.
Off for the weekend, let’s hope for an interesting few weeks ahead.
Stay safe everyone.
EchDelta
As you are selling the company in 3 weeks time why you want to raise money by placing 800m shares in two weeks time?
Fascinating
I think theres some compelling links and interactions with SEL AAOG and ANGS
Hedge is fixed for 3 years but can be negotiated /broken as Angus stated on their website Q&A. That would incur a mark up /charge but those with deep pockets could come to an amicable agreement as spot prices arent a guarantee etc.
Where next... ANGS shareholders have been diluted persistently to get this moving but convenient supplier delays (really?) have ensured things moved slower than I assumed on a poxy small time engineering project.
So what is the next move?!
Saltfleeby gas worth a fair fortune now!
Interesting to compare conspiracy theories - of course it is so "obvious" with hindsight, but then you can get carried away, but looking a Paul Forrest's comments when Forum Energy Services took their stake in AAOG it isn't surprising people read things into circumstances which may (or may not) be present.
From 20-1-2020 - "Paul Forrest, Chief Executive of Forum, commented, "Forum is pleased to have taken a strategic stake in the Company and we are looking forward to working with the Board to create shareholder value. Forum has, through its investors and network, access to sources of funding as well as exciting and viable projects in the natural resources sector that could be suitable as acquisition targets for AAOG."
How about this for a ("completely fictional") conspiracy timeline -
6-3-19 - After a big boardroom spat ANGS appoints new directors many with CIS/Russian experience
10-5-19 - ANGS announces open offer to raise £3M, mentions new UK gas opportunity it can buy into for £1!
17-6-19 - Forum Energy Services acquires Saltfleetby gas field from Gazprom and is paid £14M in decommissioning costs
19-6-19 - Forum sells 51% of Saltfleetby to ANGS and pays them £2.5M
16-7-19 - Staff move to ANGS from Wingas, which was owned by Gazprom
2-12-19 - UK authorities approve transfer of Saltfleetby from Gazprom to ANGS/Forum
27-12-19 - AAOG calls AGM to approve sale Tilapia to ZEN for £1M, afterwards will be shell - AAOG board says its this or bust
13-1-20 - AAOG AGM approves disposal
20-1-20 - Forum Energy Services increases stake in AAOG 2% to 23% buying Riverfort shares @ 0.5p (R also ANGS financier)
5-3-20 - ANGS CPR ascribing low/med/high values of 2.9p/4.4p/6.1p to ANGS shares for 51% of Saltfleetby
6-4-20 - Forum increases AAOG stake to 25% - using part of the £14M Gazprom money
4-5-20 - AAOG sells Tilapia for £200K, now a shell, 6 months to do a deal
12-8-20 - ANGS agrees offtake agreement with Shell
23-9-20 - ANGS negotiating £12M loan facility
12-10-20- Forum creates new subsidiary Saltfleetby Energy Europe Limited
4-11-20 - AAOG suspended
4-5-21 - AAOG enters into agreement t with Saltfleetby Energy to buy 25% of Saltfleetby gas field for £8M in shares
5-5-21 - AAOG delisted
13-5-21 - ANGS agrees £12M loan facility for Saltfleetby with Forum Energy Services as guarantor
17-5-21 - Forum registers charges at Companies House
22-10-21 - ANGS revised CPR, expected 1st gas date Feb/March 2022
10/11/12 -21 Saltfleetby construction moves apace
6-1-22 - ANGS receives offer for the Company and/or Saltfleetby from unknown (to us) bidder(s)
Looks to me as if it wasn't an intention to see AAOG delisted, maybe things at Saltfleetby just took too long. Certainly Forum (and possibly unknown backers) appear to have used ANGS to do all the donkey work to get Saltfleetby close to production.
Lets see what (if anything) works out - with sky high gas prices an added bonus.
skitish/irish
This website is the best in the world. On Angus website you see posts posted at a rate of 10 per min. Posters accuse each other of double/tripple/quadruble aliases. Some posters predict paradise on the horizon and thers armagaden is comming. You go there to get some information and at the end of the day you are 10 times more confused than when you started. Thank you guys for illuminating posts and may god be with you.
PS. And get out of the hedge and triple the price he is paid for the gas.
Will we see the “sold subject to planning “ sign soon ?
Skittish .
How’s this for a conspiracy theory.
SEL sell AAOG half their holding in saltfleeby for cash we have to raise. SEL use that cash and any they are sitting on to buy out Angus. Paul Forest would then own 75% of the asset with very little borrowings and able to use our tax relief.
Nice work if you can get it.
Another consideration for a predator making a move now is that Angus as part of the financing deal has hedged 70% of anticipated production at 43p per therm.
The current UK price is around 230p per them, and hasn't been much below 200p during the last 6 months, and has been as high as 330p per them in December.
If you think gas prices will stay high then there is a great incentive to be able to produce free of the hedge which no doubt would occur in the event of the purchase of Saltfleetby as the financing package would then have been repaid.
This could explain why the move is being made now.
Thanks, will read again and do some digging myself later as on the road to day with only phone.
I'm no accountant, and am continually perplexed by figures, so read this taking account of that...
The Angus presentation dated April 2019 p15 indicates that Angus will be liable for 51% of the costs of and profits from Saltfleetby
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/AE-Investor-Presentation-April-2019.pdf
Further Angus entered into its financing arrangement for Saltfleetby in mid May 2021, Companies House shows that Saltfleetby Energy Limited entered into similar arrangements around the same time.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/00953066/filing-history
What is more at end 2018 Saltfleetby Energy Limited had around £14M cash on its books as decommissioning costs for liabilities arising from the field, balanced by those actual anticipated decommissioning costs. This was given to it by Wingas (read Gazprom) when it sold the field. By mid 2020 when it was decided to recommission the site the cash had largely disappeared to be replaced by tangible assets of £10.6M and current assets of around £3M.
The P&L account is not disclosed but the balance sheet shows the accumulated loss falling from £61M to £49M, so the P&L account would show, if disclosed, a profit for the year of £12M - being the reversal from the worthless abandoned assets ie the gas field now being a prospective producer.
Whether this is actual cash profit or simply a paper profit I cannot say - however.
Some of the cash presumably found its way to Angus as referred to in the presentation (but I haven't looked at their accounts) as a contribution to their potential abandonment costs if they weren't able to activate the field.
It is also possible that some of this money found its way to Forum Energy Services Limited and was used to purchase the 25% interest in AAOG as their 2020 accounts show a "listed investment" of £535,200 (presumably AAOG) together with a "fixed asset investment" (presumably property) of £1.3M, whereas the prior year none of these assets existed.
This is counterbalanced by a liability of £1.8M in trade and other payables listed as £1,768,939 to "amounts owed to other group undertakings".
This figure in the 2020 Forum Energy Services accounts of £1,768,939 is exactly matched in the 2020 accounts of Saltfleetby Energy Limited as "amounts receivable from related parties".
So the abandonment compensation for taking on Saltfleetby of £13M was used partly to get Angus interested in the field and partly to buy up 25% of AAOG, and now the asset is on course to produce thereby results in a juicy profit (at least on paper).
So all in all it looks like a carefully worked plan running for a number of years.
If that £12M profit is real cash then maybe that is what could partly finance buying back the remaining 51% of Saltfleetby if it is SEL which is the prospective bidder.
It all looks circuitous, but then Mr Forrest is an accountant.
Confirmation statement
Next statement date 12 January 2022
due by 26 January 2022
Last statement dated 12 January 2021
Can anyone answer this please as I have looked and can’t find out.
What if any is SEL’s commitment as a 49% holder in the saltfleeby field. Are Angus responsible for all of the costs?
Malcy appears to be getting all excited in his blog by this turn of events at ANGS -
"It will come as no surprise to readers to know that I am not one bit surprised at this announcement nor even that it is Angus that has started the process off. This is a cyclical industry and we are at the point at which the vultures have seen a great deal of hard work and a massive amount of investment injected in projects which are at the tipping point of very substantial returns.
A while ago when I first started writing about Angus post its corporate disaster zone I met CEO George Lucan who gave me chapter and verse about his dreams for Saltfleetby, I believed the story then and now someone has seen it grow into a perfect sized asset in an international gas business which only becomes obvious when it is on the evening news.
For Angus there is only so much one can say because it is now in a bid situation but the way that the market has unsurprisingly hugely undervalued its assets is regrettably the case across the board, so investors should look at other assets equally undervalued if they havent already done so. The fact that Angus has rung the first bell is of massive credit to the CEO and the board who are allowing shareholders the chance to evaluate what appears on the table. After a long time in which the value has lain unnoticed, it is time for the bidders to put the money down, if it is not enough let’s hope the shareholders don’t follow the disappointing record of institutions caving early and cheaply"
Over on twitter someone appears to have mentioned AAOG in connection with the potential bid.
£8M appeared (to me) to be expensive a couple of years ago for 25% of Saltfleetby, maybe not so expensive now, but it all depends what price the AAOG shares are to be issued at (if indeed they are to be issued at all), if issued at 1p then that would be a very good deal, if at 0.1p, then not so good.
The importance to Forum Energy Services of having 25.02% of the shares in AAOG is that they could defeat any Special Resolutions as these need 75% to pass, so pre emption rights can never be disapplied - so Forum could never be diluted by freshly authorised shares being issued. There is an authority to issue new shares but only by way of a rights issue, so Forum again will always retain their 25% interest, provided they take up the rights, effectively retaining a controlling interest.
Let us see what (if anything) develops over the next couple of weeks...
skittish,
" Forum Energy's 25% stake making sure no one else could ever get a look in at AAOG."
So is delisting from AIM and turning the company into private entity which is barely legal. To me this indicate how important AAOG tax losses are to them and may be all this Angus sale of assets is also part of the game being played.
irishmouse,
Yes, maybe coma is more apt, although it would only take a flick of a switch, or pen, to send it under.
If it were Saltfleetby Energy Limited who had approached ANGS then that would make sense in order to run the whole operation, then reverse the whole into AAOG and relist with the useful tax losses and accounts audited up to main market standards - horrible reading though they make.
Albeit nice reading, if you are an accountant looking for tax losses.
This deal could have had one of the slowest gestations ever, with the Forum Energy's 25% stake making sure no one else could ever get a look in at AAOG.
And ANGS seeming to be increasing their rate of twittering, as construction rolls on to a conclusion.
I guess the time to seal the deal is when all the construction risk has been dealt with and just prior to production and cashflow.
So I'll agree coma, but we still need that 50,000 volts of gas generated electricity.
Skittish:
You calculated £42m of tax losses into £10m. Even if this figure is correct it is a lot of money.
The market cap of Angus at present is about £10m and when they start gas prodution soon this number will be perfect for them to offset their revenue tax.
Skittish.
We are not a corps as a corps means dead. I feel coma is more apt.
Mmmm... not too sure about the maths there.
But the way I see things from a brief back of an envelope calculation is that ANGS are presently worth around £10M, 1bn shares at 0.01p. They are holding a GM shortly to issue another 800M to raise funds, the cynics saying that todays RNS is an attempt to get any funding away at a "good" price. An alterative scenario could be that ANGS would wish to se itself in a strong financial position so as to not sell themselves short. They hold assets other than Saltfleetby.
AAOG at delisting was 0.3p with around 450M shares in issue so that gives a value of £1.3M. But they are obligated to pay £8M in shares for the potential 25% of Saltfleetby, so major dilution incoming if that were to happen. There is no mention of what price the shares will be - ie you cannot presently calculate how many shares would be issued if the option were to be taken up.
The latest ANGS CPR (1-10-2021) gives a NPV to 2P at their 51% share of Saltfleetby of £55.9M, with NPV10 of £38.5M, taking account of certain ANGS loan commitments.
So 25% of Saltfleetby would be worth presently NPV10 wise around £20M.
What does AAOG have to trade to get shareholders best value - well £42M of accumulated tax losses, which would be worth around £10M in hard cash. Set against that is that is that the company owes around £500k in loans payable on demand and has no money with which to pay it. Someone is holding off bumping the company.
The downside is that our 25% shareholder Forum Energy Services Ltd is the owner of Saltfleetby Energy Limited which owns the 49% of Saltfleetby which Angus doesn't own - so in any deal they are the only player in town.
But maybe gas is about to have its day - as there appears to be an all round shortage especially in Western Europe; the Germans are furiously burning coal (Coal??!!!) whilst sending gas they haven't got to Poland, and even the French are about to restart their coal powered generators.
AAOG is as close to a corpse as you can get, but maybe, just maybe there is a flicker of a pulse and if we can find a man with a wire attached to 50,000 gas generated volts there is still a chance.
Step forward the enigmatic Paul Forrest...
All IMHO, DYOR etc
PS. I may have unintentionally exaggerated how close to being alive this company actually is.
Roughly speaking:
Shares in issue and market capitalisation of Angus are 1 billion and £30m respectively.
Also shares in issue and market capitalisation of AAOG are 1/2 billion and £42m respectively.
divide (30m+42m/1.5b you get 4.8p share price for the newly formed company. The existing share price for Angus is about 1.0p and for AAOG 0p now.
Morning Skittish.
Yes I also noted the RNS and have been following angs for months .
Could Paul Forrest put a consortium together under the AAOG shell to take a majority share now most of the hard work has been done. Full planning permission has still not been granted but a decision is not far away.
I still live in hope.
I don't often look in here these days but there is an interesting RNS from ANGS today -
"Strategic Review, Formal Sale Process and Commencement of Offer Period
The Board of Angus Energy plc (the "Board") whilst remaining fully committed to achieving first gas at Saltfleetby as soon as possible has simultaneously been addressing the urgent need for transition energy projects in particular in the geothermal sector in the south west of England. Even though progress in these twin goals is steady and sure, the Board share the outlook of some of our shareholders that our market capitalisation doesn't reflect the short-term value of existing hydrocarbon assets and their immediate cashflow potential and any long-term value in the Company's scaleable geothermal project.
This valuation mismatch, also experienced by many other smaller energy companies, has resulted in a series of approaches with interest in, and in one instance an indicative non-binding offer for, some or all of the Company's 51% interest in the Saltfleetby Gas Field asset which is under consideration. Additionally, the Board has received indications that certain parties may be interested in making an offer for the Company."
The very last RNS AAOG issued stated -
"Option to acquire UK Petroleum Licences
The Company will tomorrow enter into an option agreement (the "Option") with Saltfleetby Energy Limited ("SEL") to acquire a 25% interest in in the Saltfleetby gas field, East Lincolnshire.
SEL holds a 49% legal and beneficial interest in Petroleum Exploration and Development Licence 005 (the "Licence") and is a party to a joint operating agreement regulating the operations under the Licence (the "JOA") . On exercise of the Option AAOG would also become a party to the JOA.
The consideration for the exercise of the Option shall be the issue and allotment to SEL of such number of ordinary shares in the capital of AAOG as is equal in value to GBP8m"
We don't know the terms of the option - is 25% worth £8M etc, but it looks like Saltfleetby is due to come on line very shortly, someone seems to be interested in acquiring the interest ANGS has in it, and AAOG's major shareholder already holds an interest.
That said ANGS share price remains below 1p.
However gas prices are going through the roof at the moment, so there may be a bit of life in the old dog yet.