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Thanks for the reply IWTO.
I would only repeat what I had said before that xtract are not proving up the resource toward the actual extraction and production process, but with more a view to a marketing perspective. They simply need minimum of 2mtCuEq and or decision to mine to get AA interested or not. That will open the door to eventual sale dependant on their decision of course. Quite irrelevant at what depths mineralisation starts at Ascot. One of the last holes into Ascot was to the south to no doubt follow the trend of shallower mineralisation the further south though if I recall.
I think there is a general underestimation of what could be on the table, there is about 15 furlongs of mineralisation from both RC and Ascot.
Howezap, of those choices I’d struggle to say I am even in the “Camp Realistic” at the moment. I say that because I have no clue whatsoever how large the Ascot resource is. Apart from the discovery hole and perhaps one other, the results so far seem rather iffy. Further - whilst Ascot wouldn’t have capital costs to cover there would be plenty of stripping required, and also the joint processing plant would have to be very large because I can see RC fully utilising it for 25 years anyway. (Unless Ascot is left intact, to be mined way into the future when, no doubt, copper will be $20/lb!). So whilst additional Ascot tonnage is very helpful, I’m just not sure that it’s as valuable as if it were all found in RC alone.
Having said all the above, good P3 results from Ascot - perhaps even to the point where it’s a second RC, or smaller version - would make a huge difference. That’s why I believe we need a P3. I’m not too bothered about the other outcrops, though it can’t hurt to sink a few exploratory holes.
Nice idea IWTO, we can take your idea a bit further
What camp are you in?
Camp optimism -
Closer to 2mtCuEq will be modelled from racecourse alone. With further gold, silver and moly having a very positive effect on financial model for Ascot, with its outer margins defined and tipping the scales at around the 450-500mt mark, total resource up to 1bt , multi mineralised, multi porphyry system with further outlying anomalies confirmed to be mineralised shown from phase 3.
Value - top dollar!
Camp that’ll do -
As above with a 3rd phase under its belt but with only up to 1.5mtCuEq from RC total 750mt resource
Value - big bucks
Camp realistic -
+/- 1.5mtCuEq modelled from RC with Ascot having to bulk up the rest. Adequate resource modelled from Ascot to cover any shortfall. Multi mineralised multi porphyry system like Cadia still, but decided not to embark on a planned 3rd phase so approx 750m of strike at Ascot that takes both models comfortably over the 2mt threshold.
Value - fair value
The latter could be conceivable if the statement in the yearly report is to be understood that the project will be actively marketed starting with contacting AA.
>>The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market.<<
It may simply mean that as the resource models will be in place, AA will then be in a position to consider making an offer as xtract just sit on the planning of a 3rd phase as suggested by Steve 4077 placing the onus at first on AA
Thanks for your answers, all. FWIW I also think the resource will be economic at a medium-long term copper price and worth well above the current sp, so a clear hold until a buyer emerges.
Going back to previous comments about racecourse model being done by next month was just considering this statement from the yearly report. It implies that both models will be released at the same time, so that would potentially be around late sept, early October very minimum.
>>Upon the return of all remaining assay results from the Phase Two Drilling Programme at Racecourse and Ascot, a new resource model for both prospects will be developed.
Maybe keep expectations in check
Tbh I'm not that bothered, within reason, about exact tonnage re long term situation. Yes, a low tonnage short term would mean CB has been deliberately deceptive after all his comments and the buy-out would be much less than he has implied (IMHO).
However, assuming CB is not a charlatan or a complete idiot, it will be above 1mt (at very least) and that will have value, so I would not sell but wait until the buy-out was agreed, which will be at a premium to SP. So best SP would be at buy-out price so dont sell before then is my approach.
If no major thinks its economical at whatever tonnage we get (above 1mt), then I would just wait, as I think the increasing copper price will, at some point, make whatever we have very economical in time. That's in the very unlikely event it isnt economical after resource model is declared.
If that was the case, again, just wait for the buy-out (now at a much later date than expected) which again should be at premium to SP.
Due to FB income we have optionality and that includes the option of just waiting for copper price to make the resource economical (IF it isnt after model but that is very unlikely). Similar to land banking an asset waiting for the market to make the resource more valuable.
A rather a long winded answer to your question.
In short, don't sell, but wait a bit for the buy-out offer or (if we have to) wait a bit longer for copper price to rise and for the much later buy-out.
That's going to be my approach - which may well prove to be the completely wrong approach !
I think it's way more than 1MT... but concede it might be a good bit short of 2MT (for Racecourse alone).
Would I sell up? Of course not.... 1% value of 1MT at a copper price of $10,000/te is already 10p.... and I cant see us only achieving 1% value,nor only 1MT, plus we have Ascot to be JORC'd, plus other anomalies in the area to be investigated.
If it was only 1MT the impact for me would be a lowering of my slicing point only (and a renewed attempt at tempering Colins enthusiastic interviews when I hear them).
GLA
IWTO. I’ve been a holder for over 2 yrs. I’d love 2Mt+, but even 1Mt will see this being a highly desirable ore body, and will be sold. So I envisage a few multiples of the current share price, at worst, with the potential for much more. So, I’m happy to wait now for the end-game on the disposal of Racecourse.
1.7mt is my prediction
Can’t sell below my average so would be unhappy
Decent move today x5 to come
F100
Ok, so it’d be good to get a sense of how people will feel about the forthcoming Racecourse JORC when it’s revealed. I’m on record as saying I think it’s > 1Mt of Cu, maybe 1.25 Mt but well below 2Mt. If that were the case would you be comfortable? Very unhappy? And would you buy, sell or hold your shares?