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That's fair Jamesiecakes, fully understand the view that people need to 'see it to believe it' - especially due to legacy issues- however, my view is that the current discount to the SP (i.e. from where I would value the company based on its projects vs its current market valuation) which is essentially attributed to 'uncertainty' is pretty over the top..
Still, people are entitled to their own opinions.. I'm just confident that mine will make me a lot of money :)
Nice post and similar thoughts to myself.
Only difference is I don’t think it’s a case of people needing to be spoon fed I think it’s more a case of people not believing the story, I think this will change when construction is confirmed to have started.
Considering PoG's meteoric rise of late, I've spent a bit of time looking at the numbers this morning and it made me think... the project metrics have changed outrageously.
Due to PoG's significant rise since the DFS/collab agreement our profit margin on the Fairbride project (at todays spot price) has been boosted from circa $400/oz to circa $1075/oz. (Based on project metrics found here: https://xtractresources.com/manica-gold-project/ - i.e. AISC $862/PoG @ $1262/$1940)
Our 23% share of the operating profits at a PoG of $1262 as originally thought would have been circa $240k a month.
Our 23% share of the operating profits at a PoG of $1940 as is the current situation is circa $640k a month. (even at 70% of planned throughput this is circa $450k/month - N.b. I'm looking at 70% throughput as that is the figure which defines 'commercial production' as stipulated by the collaboration agreement: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/xtract-resources-plc-manica-hard-rock-collaboration-agreement--bfw915hjmd6ypax.html )
Our Mcap is currently circa £6m (/$7.7m).
The yearly income to Explorator based on current PoG are looking like circa $5.4m-$7.7m (/£4.2m-£5.99m).
This is just one of our projects at XTR with various other income streams inbound (imo).
When I think about our mcap vs our fundamentals the word "disparity" springs to mind....
Happy to watch and wait knowing that at some point (imo in the not too distant future)- perhaps as we near the start of commercial production and people are spoon fed a clearer picture, or perhaps further down the line when actual revenues are announced, people will finally cotton on - the share price should not be anywhere near 1.3pps equating to an mcap of £6m.
I look forward to that day.
With POG now at record highs and climbing fast, I wonder if there is something in that seeking alpha article re lack of physical Gold? We may know more on Wednesday - the roll over day. Or more to the point, the delivery date.....assuming there is enough physical to actually be delivered!
That thought did also occur to me it would make sense on many different levels and once the structure is in place , would be easy to do...
Worth a read IMO. I bit too technical for me in parts but I get the general point.
This part was interesting...
Watch Out for July 29
The others are currently net long 127,455 contracts. On July 29, the active August gold futures contract rolls off the board. As Macleod points out in his latest Market Update, those that do not roll over to December by that time may be signalling their intent to stand for delivery. At least some portion of them. We will have to see. I am not saying that the gold price is going to explode specifically on July 29, though it might. I do not know. I am only saying rather that July 29 is a date to watch to see how a physical gold short squeeze might progress.
I do not agree that a 2p share price cannot be attained in the short term, in the current bull sector mania anything can happen, any gold related junior could multi bag in a flash, many already have.
Every man and his dog are looking to invest in gold shares, the majors and mid caps have benefitted via strong share price gains and many believe that the junior space will be next, the share price gains of juniors can be disproportionate due to the lack of liquidity.
Xtract is one of the few juniors that has no re-rated to date but it is only a matter of time IMO.
Interesting bit of info there CE. May I ask, did you get that info from Bird?
If it turns out to be correct, and its Dr.H then I imagine we will get an RNS in Aug regarding this. Should the Aus government agree to the purchase agreement..
Yes, I did forget about those other two. Maybe before he reties he will do a five co merger and his legacy will be a co that rivals BHP Bilton :)
What a way to go out !!
Not forgetting BZT and TIR - that makes a stable of five companies - all with similar assets and interests, mainly centred on gold and, increasingly, copper. I hear that Jubilee will also work with BZT and XTR and that an Australian will be brought on board to manage the hard rock in Manica.
Lots to keep us interested over the coming months...
Not too surprised he is also working for Galileo Resources. It seems that a few people are working for at least 2 of CBs three companies. Jubilee being the other one. I believe Xtract are / will be, using some of the processing equipment that Jubilee have?? In addition, all three websites are identical format.
That relationship may start to get closer - especially with Jubilee?
I wonder if the other two will soon employ Alistair Ford as their PR man to do the media work??
A bit of background on the chap in charge of the Aussie copper project. When I saw the latest RNS title I was actually expecting that it was he who was being given a BoD position :https://www.linkedin.com/in/quinton-hills-8160386a/?originalSubdomain=auHe was also recently added to the Galileo management structure: "Galileo has appointed the highly experienced and successful Kalahari Copper Belt exploration geologists, Dr Quinton Hills and Fred Nhiwatiwa as members of the Company's senior management to provide assistance with the Company's exploration projects in Botswana" Ref: https://www.investegate.co.uk/galileo-resources--glr-/rns/appointment-of-senior-management-team/202007150700089941S/
Completely agree CE.
Being too optimistic has caused much angst and disappointment here for many posters who have had too much faith in CB over the years. That’s why I’ve never been convinced that the mine would be built this year - despite CB’s predictions.
That said, if the sp is not at least 2p by December then either POG has collapsed and / or the mine is way behind schedule and nowhere near being completed. At this moment in time, and unless things change, I thinks its realistic to assume that by xmas, POG will still be above $1700 and the mine will be nearing completion – so 2p minimum by xmas seems reasonable to me – at the moment!
Hate to rain on anybody's parade, but over - optimism has caused a lot of heartache in this company over the years. Predictions of 2p are great but not likely in the short term. By all means invest to multi bag- that's why I'm here , but don't expect it in the short term. More of a SIPP investment at the moment, IMO , but a great investment nonetheless.
I know Andrew I was only joking. I look forward to the rerate and with gold increasing and all the possible revenue streams coming I suspect 6p is conservative. we still have a while to wait though but it will be worth it.
I think Conkers was talking about 2p before we start to get any HR revenue and the build-up to it?? I can't see any HR income this year.
IF POG is still around $2K by HR production, I think your 6p target is very likely, in fact probably conservative imo.
F the 2p I'm waiting for the 6p once the revenue starts rolling in.
Hopefully we can continue this slow rise, and, you never know, with some timely news we might actually break 2p before next year :-)
Boom!! Just broke it.
Is it going to break 1900.........
I wouldn’t normally post a ceo interview as they just keep promoting their own company and say whatever helps others to buy in. Alistair Ford, please take note :)
In other interviews Frank G has expanded on his view and believes that as interest rates will remain very low for many years (the fed can’t raise as they have a massive debt bubble which will explode) the disadvantage of holding Gold (it doesn’t offer a yield), has now gone. In fact with negative interest rates having 0% yield is a bonus !
Secondly, the QE to infinity programme by the fed will, eventually, devalue the $ which will help Gold. Inflation at some point, must start to increase as the money supply would have massively increased. Many will run to Gold as a wealth preserver rather than investment. It looks like a perfect storm is brewing for Gold and we are heading for a major Gold bull run.
Due to the multiplier effect, a rising POG will see the profits of Gold mining companies increase exponentially, and therefore the SP. Even if this is all part right, POG looks highly likely to be on an upward trajectory over the next few years.
I havnt researched copper as much but my understanding is that there is a massive copper shortage predicted soon due to the number of mines that closed in the last copper bear run. TBH I see our copper plays as a bonus, especially as they are way off serious production and a lot could still go wrong between now and first income.
My concern is that because CB thinks POG will go down over the next few years, he may be tempted to sell manica and use all the money to invest in copper plays. I think that would be a mistake for the reasons above.
Thanks for the link Andrew, a good listen. This bloke seems to have an economic version of the sports almanac considering he made those statements a year ago.
What concerns me is that, if the coming recession is as bad as some are predicting will the world be in need of 'excess' copper in the next 3-4 years? yea, government 'stimulus' can help shore up industry but if no one is buying that can only go so far. Saying all that, the cost of copper continues to rise so I guess the market see's it differently.
My preference, more than ever, is that we focus on further drilling in Manica, do we really have the 1.4e6-1.6e6 oz than CB thinks we do, is there more than that?. That's something to really get excited about considering the current gold price!
Frank Giustra rarely gives interviews, but when he does he calls it right. I’ve found him to be very astute in his observations and predictions. He’s not like Frank Holmes et al who always says ‘buy Gold’, and continually ‘talks their own book up’.
I’d recommend watching this as it concisely explains how we got here and what the likely future will be. I agree with his assessment, analysis and rationale.
First 10 minutes are the most salient imo but worth watching it all.
This interview was nearly a year ago and well before covid. He made many correct calls, so far...
After a bit of light reading/research...
They’re a small cap company with some interesting looking projects (check their website if you’re interested) in copper / gold / (other?) who look like they’re mostly funding the development of via placings.
They have a copper project that looks interesting but has been sidelined atm due to them wanting to push on developing their gold play.
Not saying they’re struggling financially but XTR as a company soon to be throwing off decent amounts of cash would certainly be in a position to play a part in financing the development of their assets if some sort of deal were to be struck.
Anyway, considering CB’s attitude towards acquisitions/JV’s atm, i’ll certainly be watching this space.
Could this have anything to do with the next target we acquire*