If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I am looking forward to seeing this sold!
The calm before the storm?
Its always darkest before the dawn (I think Colin Bird actually said this on a recent podcast)
What is left to report before we get this new conceptual pit (ETA much disputed)? All assays in now from all outstanding drills? I think it has been expressly said no more drilling (ie no Phase 3) required before delivering conceptual pit / D2M etc? As time goes on we move towards reports of fully commissioned gold production at Manica, and a quarterly volume.
What news is out there waiting to happen and, excluding major unexpected events or incidents, what chance of negative or positive market reaction is there to any news we are waiting for?
Many here are bemused by the lack of reflection in the current SP of what most believe is the promise of Bushranger. But not everyone speculates. We are speculating, but the market moving share buying (or not!) interest will come from deep pocketed investors who can justify their capital (and/or their jobs) by pointing to solid, irrefutable information. Be that revenues from gold production, or clear interest from a 3rd party that want to buy the resource at Bushranger with a view to mining it.
Before that happens current holders may lose patience and sell, but most other investors are probably waiting for their current positions to get to somewhere near breakeven before committing more funds.
For the record, I am as impatient as most others for news that heralds the next chapter in the story of Bushranger.
The DtM is a Australian term and I believe one that maybe even had Colin unsure in the early days. In interview he said you can’t just declare a DtM, you have to expose the ore body with the pit created, sink a partial shaft…….along those lines
Have a listen https://youtu.be/2WFUFdHX62Q
Worth a watch back but from 9mins he talks of the DtM
Ha ha yes I think we have all had our hands held and dragged along for the ride it feels. I will certainly be thankful to Colin for keeping me guessing, interested and invested along the way if he pulls this off.
>> I much prefer ‘economically recoverable’ to ‘decision to mine’.
Under the Valmin code they are effectively the same thing, which is why that is a key phrase in the buyback agreement.
I much prefer ‘economically recoverable’ to ‘decision to mine’. Alas, I’ve largely stopped listening to what Colin has said outside of official RNS’s
Basically Chris what the agreement is saying, either you show us a a minimum resource , or you can show from what you have got from financial modelling that it is economically recoverable.
Colin has said previously that a Pre or DFS are not a pre-requisite for a sale.
Despite Colin persistently blowing smoke up this that 2mt was essentially a nailed on certainty, I think most here are of the opinion that that now won’t be the case, even when the Ascot drilling to-date is included.
Regarding decision to mine, do we have confidence we are approaching this? We will have an updated pit model plus what is likely to be <2mt resource across Racecourse and Ascot. Does anyone actually know when a decision to mine can feasibly be declared along the exploration timeline? Who’s to say this wouldn’t require pre-feasibility/feasibility? My biggest concern is that we get the pit model plus MREs totalling <2mt and are then just stuck in limbo. Nevertheless, I topped up significantly recently on the basis that all other assets underpin the current share price, regardless of Bushranger.
Foreward estimates of timescales in a half yearly report do not carry the weight of a promise. rRad the small print. Also end of 2022 is not late October/early November, And I planned to be a millionaire before I was 20....Strangely enough it didn't happen. Plans often have to be revised. My point is not that Colin won't deliver, it is just that to trust someone on dates who has such a poor track record is an exercise in hope over experience.
Screenlearner
Re dates
This was in half yearly report RNS:
"The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."
AND
"Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."
Hi ZM Racecourse as it stands is still in very early days toward being a mine. Xtracts job is to just show a level of confidence to a major that there is scope to be profitable. ‘A starter project’, which hopefully a major will take it up to the next study level and so on. There will be lots more infilling and further exploration drilling, let alone environmental impact studies etc. to eventually get to a high level of geological confidence in the resource. As it evolves through the many stages incrementally, eventually it will need to be mostly measured to convert to a proven resource that is required to support a definitive feasibility study to then go into detailed mine planning and engineering in justification of the billion or so CapEx it will eventually need.
Inferred and indicated resources are far too speculative to support financial studies at higher levels.
I think with the sheer scale of bushranger, and where it is positioned along its evolutionary journey, a ‘major’ may not necessarily be the next to take it on from here.
@Steve4077, It was a long RNS but I don't remember seeing any dates. The relevant sections that I could find were:
(1) ... are now working on the overall geological model for Ascot, which will then be used to produce a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for the Ascot Prospect. This will be in addition to the updated Racecourse mineral resource estimate which is close to completion."
(2)Xtract is now incorporating all the geological and geochemical data from the Ascot prospect into a geological model which will be used to estimate a maiden Mineral Resource (JORC 2012) for the Ascot prospect. In tandem with this, a revised resource estimate is in preparation for the Racecourse deposit. This will then be used as the basis for an updated conceptual open pit mining study.
Did I miss it? Is it hidden in the text somewhere or in a different RNS and my speed reading skills need refreshing? If not he dates are just Colin's usual elastic timescales. 'Close to completion' sounds less exciting to me than the 'imminent' he has used several times before!
Its not my area of expertise. Curious to discover how it all works, and have really enjoyed expanding my knowledge over the last year or so.
ZM what you are talking of there is at feasibility or even pre-feasibility study level.
This updated financial model will be more comprehensive than the last one, but still barely at scoping study.
Just think of all those features and inputs in the modelling software that will be left blank, ie adding no additional costs. Currency risks, political risks, seasonal extreme weather considerations, power provision, transport of all kinds, skilled and semi skilled labour availability, security, etc etc!
A question for those in the know ... how complicated is the modelling? I presume there is established 'go to' software that can be used. The datapoints available from which the geophysics is interpolated are surely limited to what they have pulled out of the drill holes, and the infrastructure of the processing plant, the workforce and all other equipment is a complicated (I am sure) but not unique project to be costed.
I know many here have got their fag packets out and made their own calculations from the reports from the drill core and assay reports, etc. Surely all of that is woefully inadequate and ;potentially very wide of the mark (despite people declaring how definately likely or unlikely 2MT may be), but I expect the level of sophistication of the tools being used is high. And also clever enough to tweak, add data, create scenarios etc almost at the click of a mouse?
Screenlearner - Most of us have been guilty of underestimating how long things would take but phase 2 is now finished, most of the assays are back, and we've been told there is no plan for a phase 3. So we just have to wait until they are ready to issue the new resource estimates and the modelling. I would hope we are talking weeks rather than months... but they could be famous last words!
Was meant to include this bit from last study in my last post
>>Open pit modelling was carried out using the currently defined JORC (2012) compliant Inferred Resource of 71Mt @ 0.44% Cu and 0.064 g/t Au at a cut-off of 0.3% Cu, as well as additional unclassified resources at the Racecourse prospect
The difference in this case was the date estimation was in an RNS, not an interview.
*death not dead
I'm sorry, I have to laugh. Several people saying words along the lines 'not long to wait'. I remember my prediction of good news and a re-rate in about September .That was September 2021 by the way. We can only hope. One day the words 'soon/imminent/not long now/etc' will turn out to be right. But just because Colin said late Oct/Early November means diddly-squat. He has said a lot of things. Won't be a dead of a thousand cuts. Was it six weeks he said more than six months ago. I am fairly confident it will happen and we will get a really decent re-rate... but I am now much less certain when. September 2023 anyone? Ha Ha perhaps I should just say Serptember and leave others to fill in the year!
I agree with Cygnus.
The last modelling of the conceptual open pit used the existing JORC and didn’t include anything found by the XTR drilling. All the XTR finds should now be built into the modelling and a new JORC estimate issued. Hopefully not too long to wait now.
I’d really like some gold rich assays from Footrot RNS’ed first to give the SP a kick!
A revised open pit model will need to be carried out using the updated JORC for Racecourse. Below is taken from conceptual study RNS back in July ‘21
>>The preliminary conceptual open pit optimisation mining study ("Conceptual Study") was completed by independent consultant, Optimal Mining Solutions (Pty) Ltd of Australia ("Optimal"). Where appropriate, other independent consultants were used, including Cartledge Mining and Geotechnics together with Lycopodium (mineral processing experts).<<
The pit design will be carried out at this stage too.
Is likely both RC and Ascot resource statements will be reported firstly.
Zero,
I would imagine that the conceptual pit model would incorporate the JORC assessment.
For a model to be created, the amount of Cu needs to be known and the level of confidence in that resource needs to be known so I can't see how the model can be published without a JORC associated with it.
Just my take on it.
Thank you. All sorted re: Telegram.
A question, on another quiet day, for anyone with any view on this ... I have read that we may have sight of a 'JORC' by December. But there is also the conceptual pit model that is due to emerge. I think Colin Bird said imminently, or soon, or some other term that has been taken by most to mean next year ... ! Although my take from the last but one appearance on The Sunday Roast was that Colin Bird let slip, later on, that the conceptual pit model should land late October. It felt like an unguarded moment wrapped up in a burst of enthusiastic burbling.
So am I right that the conceptual pit model is what will be accompanied by the 'decision 2 mine' declaration as it demonstrates an economical pit waiting to be got on with? This is of course the trigger for AA to excercise their buy back clause if they should so wish.
So what is the significance of this JORC, if it is due as late as December. Is it required. Might ProspectOre be enjoying the love of a new (old) owner before that JORC lands? Or will the potential sale to AA or anyone, rely on the existence of the JORC?
Any contributions to these gaps in my understanding are much appreciated.
And did anyone else pick up on that slipped comment (Sunday Roast, a month or so ago) about the conceptual pit model landing in late Oct/early Nov?