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Hi James
I'm not sure what POG he is using re 350K. Current or older one (obviously lower).
Of course he may have called the POG futures correctly so we may get less.
I would be amazed if it didnt break 2000K in next 12 months though.
Hi Andrew
I guess the positive of CB’s gold price forecast is it should mean more than 350k per month income from manica, assuming prices stay at today’s level (and all else is equal of course).
Cheers
James
I noticed that too NTMY. It's clear he's much more bullish on his copper plays. I have wondered if it's not specifically the metal or it's as he did not discover Manica. I get the impression he wants another big find before he retires.
I, personally, disagree with opinion with regards to the jump in copper price especially in the next three years. but then he has a **** load more xp in this area than I do!
MMs charging a premium for even small quantities of shares, so must be another tick-up due...
MMP look to have invested millions already in the plant they are building, so they will be keen to get production started as soon as possible.
Normally the market prices in short term expectations - so I would not be surprised to see a considerable increase from this level prior to the CIL plant being completed.
Thanks Andrew.. clears things up for me nicely..
(his views on PoG and PoC perhaps explains why he opens up by introducing xtr as a copper and gold play as opposed to a gold and copper play .. I'm not going to double guess him on either his copper or gold forward price views.. he has a lifetime of experience, after all …. )
So, where there's muck, there's copper !!
Ntm
CB did extensively cover that in the paid pod cast. What really surprised me was CB's very bearish position on POG. 14K to 17K range this year, the falling 2021 and again 2022. (in paid pod cast)
He may well be right. But he is in a very small minority thinking POG will not rise over the next few years. And he is one of only a handful of people who think POG will fall over the next few years and not break old highs.
The reason why this matters is that he may have focused more on manica and less on copper if he thought POG was going to 2500 rather than 1500.
As I say, he may be proved right.
I listened to the podcast and am very surprised he didn't focus on the significant income to come relatively soon from the MMP fairbride 'ard project.. confusing and disappointing to me..
It's not what's fully driving the SP though BB. It's just another piece of negative news and excuses for delay that we've been hearing for the past 6 years +.
I came across an XTR twitter post from 2017 last night, Bird was claiming back then that he was expecting $300k a month income by the end of the year.....Well, we're still waiting to see those figures and it well be 2021 before they are seen in Xtract's bank account!
Hello CE
The 'little disappointing' comment was lifted from the RNS yesterday - which made me chuckle due to CBs understatement.
We may well get a few more 'little disappointing' news events over the next 6 months - no doubt some will be CBs failed timescales. But in all the years I have been in this, I have never been more confident that the future looks bright. That is nearly all down (imo) to the HR plant which I see as having a 99% chance of being built therefore there is a 99% chance of massive increase in income therefore 99% of SP rerating within the next 9 months.
I see all the other possible income streams as just that - potential which may or may not happen.
I can't quite see why this is driving the sp really. This part of the business was never going to make anyone rich,a means to an end. The alluvials being removed at no cost to the company it's doing its job isn't it? Lack of spares due to covid seasonal rains low grade alluvials not too bad at all considering. Could have been no income,would have liked Bird to have stated how much down the amount of alluvials removed was thou.Only concern for me is required cash for Zambia's copper,and will the hard rock income come in time to support the timetable stated..but seems to be coming together at last
CB agrees with you, Andrew. In yesterday's VOX interview he said Q1 was more of a disaster than a disappointment. However he also justified the results without bullsh*ting and did say that production has already improved since arrival of spares 2 weeks ago- so 6 weeks of better production expected in Q2.
Even with the poor production Xtract still made an operating profit for the period. Although we are unlikely to get rich from the alluvials, some income is better than none at all and it means the operational overhead is covered, letting all income from hard rock drop straight to the bottom line.
As I said before, not a great RNS, but enough encouraging elements to indicate short term improvement in SP.
We shall see soon enough...
not that bad after that RNS - which was more than a 'little disappointing' imo. Not checked the veracity of all buys / sells recorded, but appears to be broadly 50/50? Again not bad in terms of sentiment.
In the bad old days this would have gone down 30% on that type of RNS with many more sells than buys. So I think sentiment is / has turned.
I guess we will know more by COP this week. Close above 1.5p and I'll be happy that we have a good base / support to build from.