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Velo if your spreadsheet saw VOD recovering a meagre 5% from a 25 year low as being an exceptionally unlikely event then either:
A) your screen was inverted,or
B) you don't have a scooby how to model sp movements and should either give up or pay for an excel modelling training course
I hope this helps! :)
What a strange shareprice Vodafone is - sale of Hungarian arm confirmed with money been used to pay down debt and down the shareprice goes . Seems nothing Vodafone does is going to please the market .
January Sales , will it rise the SP
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VOD/sale-of-vodafone-hungary-36ni3r27su0wr7k.html
Hi Roofer and Happy New Year to you.
Well, what a change in circumstances! Come back and what do I find with the SP? Only the possibility that the floor may be in.
I found the SP stood in a corner, with it’s head bowed looking non-plussed as some fair-haired guy with a ****ney accent, rails at the SP with:
- What the hell happened? You were only supposed to blow the blaady doors off !!!”
And that’s exactly what happened to the SP whilst I’ve been away. Not only did I lose the comp, the SP stormed through my spreadsheet all the way up to the exceptional circumstances level and at the very last upper-level digit - plonked itself there - way, way up, where I wasn’t looking.
Has a CEO been appointed?
Did the BOD find a hoard of cash behind the sofa in Reid’s office, enough to pay off all the net debts?
My portfolio did very well indeed last week, all the ****e in it shone like brightly polished turds - loadsamoney! :)
Suddenly I wanna keep them. Cusp of a new bull market?
2 of VOD’s short term trends have turned bullish too! It’s all happening for VOD.
Just seeing if the Intermediate trend turns bullish too, because if it does - that’s it! I’ll be all in. Hard to lose once the Intermediate trend converts to bullish. Looking like a few more weeks yet for it.
So I’m thinking 92 or/but maybe 93. Hmm. . .
Dangerous as could be a false positive without that Intermediate trend on side.
Think I’ll compromise and again avoid the top tier - lightening can’t strike twice can it?
So back down to the middle it is. Yes. Decided. 92.5p please Roofer.
PS. Top tier for this week is giving off 97/98 area.
————-
Nope. Stop it! 92.5 please Roofer. Defo. Yep.
Decided.
No more dithering.
Quick before I change my mind - 92.5 please!
. . Or maybe . . . hmmm
93p
13th Jan closing Sp
Grezzz 89.13p
MaryB 101p
Owl11 93p
Waygoose 92p
BushyT 93.27p
SlartiB 93.1p
BT…My take is a high close of 7794 by March 2023, then a 25-28 p/cent crash from April……
Yep my mistake...School boy error didn't bother to scroll the chart or change the session length. Not far off mind, wonder if we'll get a new high?
No. 7877.45 in May 2018. (I think)….
Might have passed a few people by but the FTSE 100 recorded it's highest ever price on Friday.
93.1p for me please
Happy new year all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpAvcGcEc0k&t=22s
good to see a positive article and hopefully more on the way
One of the reasons for regulation is to encourage innovation rather than cost cutting beyond those costs supporting an efficient market. Hutch probably doing the same as VOD in India and threatening to walk away. If the merger is waived through, I guess blocks of spectrum will be reallocated across the industry as a remedy and puts the industry/ market firmly on the hook for innovation and realising incremental profits from product development etc. That could be more of the same and a fudge if no innovation hence why the new CEO profile could indicate industry strategy vs VOD strategy. If he or she fires the starting gun for industrial IOT etc and has the business network to bring it, then we might see the SP rocketing with a few big deals whilst selling/ exiting a few non core assets.
Governments must want some big deals to drive confidence and projections of gdp etc?
"UK must be carrying $5 or $6Bn loans and the market saturated hence the merger with VOD UK."
I've got a substantial amount of savings invested in Vodafone shares, but I honestly couldn't see OFCOM, or the CMA, allowing a merger between Three and Vodafone UK; Such a merger couldn't be compared to BT taking over EE, or the VM O2 merger, since both those cases were fixed line merging with mobile, whereas a Vodafone/Three merger would combine the third and fourth largest UK mobile providers. If the merger is waved through, it'll have to be justified on a business viability basis, in the absence of any other options.
93.27 for me please Bob
Fleccy, thanks for all the research.
My understanding of the tax arguments revolve around where the economic value is, where the centre of management control is, where the service is provided and where the assets and operations are legally structured hence the debate over 'offshore and onshore' liability between different interest groups involved. I can understand the Government calling it a 'legal fiction' when the spectrum relates to assets located in india. Bilateral/ multilateral rules and retrospective arbitration can drag on 10 years whilst new issues are just landing. I think VOD is right to ring fence its position and lobby for the remedy.
Process similar to Hutch in the UK and the 3G price cap introduced shortly after Hutch made its 3G investment. The outcome was an appropriate remedy. 3 UK must be carrying $5 or $6Bn loans and the market saturated hence the merger with VOD UK.
Please put me down for 92p. I bought 10,000 more on Friday at 88.79, I think this will be over 1 pound in a few weeks.
93p
will counter Gutters with @ £1.01p
"Friday 13th " Vod closing SP
GutterS 25p
Android 91.5p
Exil 85p
Ceo.. Roofer 90.48p
Grezzz 89.13
List so far
My guess is that Vodafone have completely lost faith in India. The Indian Government have a track history of changing tax laws retrospectively and hammering companies for back taxes that weren't applicable at the time of the transaction.
"In a recent, still unpublished award, India lost an arbitration dispute initiated by Vodafone because India had imposed a hefty tax bill of several billion dollars retroactively."
http://arbitrationblog.practicallaw.com/vodafone-v-india-award-risky-business-of-retroactive-taxation/
I suspect Vodafone have completely lost trust in the Indian Government and aren't willing to throw further large amounts of cash at India, without quid-pro-que; How can you trust someone who changes the rules of a game, mid game, to suit themselves?
Then there's this:
"The Indian Supreme Court last month ruled that telecoms operators in the country must pay back roughly $14bn ($10.9bn) in taxes and penalties following a change in the way spectrum charges were calculated.
Vodafone said its own liabilities were at least $4bn, but could be “substantially higher”.
The firm has pumped $20bn into India and is the country’s largest foreign direct investor. However, Read said the company has written off this amount, adding that there was now “zero value” for its share price in the country."
https://www.cityam.com/vodafone-threatens-to-withdraw-from-india-amid-dispute-over-taxes/
"The Indian government has issued an angry rebuke to Vodafone’s chief executive over his perceived threats to pull out of the country over a shock $4 billion (£3.1 billion) tax demand."
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/india-lashes-out-at-vodafone-chief-over-threats-to-quit-the-country-a4287151.html
Vodafone goes into India and invests around $20 Billion, follows the rules and then the Government/Regulators all but wipe out any profit from ongoing operations, through fee's and taxes. It appears the only way VI can survive is through constant external capital infusion, based on what I've read,
When Jio was starting up, the regulators were all over the existing providers while making life easier for Jio, but it appears they've gone too far, irreparably damaging much of the fledgling industry.
It isn't just that though, VI seems to fall foul of India's Trai over any moves to turn a profit, or gain any advantage over competitors.
"Vodafone Idea moves Telecom Dispute Tribunal against TRAI order to block premium plans"
https://www.indiatoday.in/technology/news/story/vodafone-idea-moves-telecom-dispute-tribunal-against-trai-order-to-block-premium-plans-1700106-2020-07-13
That's just a few examples on why Vodafone has given up on India as a reliable place to do business, and it might give some foresight into the type of country will become once they grow to superpower status.
Gunsup/ Fleccy,
C 55% of the population access the internet via mobile phone and c65% (1Bn) of the population living in rural areas. I guess its all about airtime price, with the economics pitched between the government and the billionnaires (Reed has ring fenced VODs exposure). Maybe its for the new CEO with broader industry experience to explain how incremental investment will payback or why disposal is the better option.. Thats probably 6 months or more away? Perhaps the government will convert to equity in the meantime which would make the disposal a going concern and upside to 'zero'
fleccy
Seems to be coming to ahead. Vodafone are still potentially in the frame for stumping up a lot more cash and to what end?
As for the Indian Govt.. Yes they also have a lot to lose. When things get this political its worth keeping an eye on..
"Friday 13th " Vod closing SP
GutterS 25p
Android 91.5p
Exil 85p
Ceo.. Roofer 90.48p
List so far
Doyen Dan .....what a shrewd idea...Roofer next CEO, first motion, all BOD memebers remuneration linked to VOD Sp , but some how cant see " her indoors" letting me picking my personal secretary , as ever look forward to your posting and wit , shouldnt be long bursting back over a 100p .....atb