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Insider trading...whoever heard of such a thing! Something is wrong here, the fundamentals and the share price are at odds with each other. Either the board are misleading PI's or the price is being manipulated for a takeover?
This is in 'falling knife' territory at the moment. Unless someone is 'in the know', which is of course totally possible with AIM, I await the next relevant RNS before deciding what to do. With no support this can obviously go lower than this over the next few days. In my bones I know logically something is badly wrong here, but could be an opportunity if by some miracle all is well. In the latter case why would the management not put out a statement to reassure investors given this plunge?
I would expect van elle to be in a very good position to be awarded contracts when hs2 finally gets going, and their could be a nice windfall in the future as the second phase of hs2 goes right through a nice large chunk of van elle land.
Sold half of mine this morning, but will watch closely and buy back if news improves. I cant see why this has downturned so quickly, but then again the board seem to put out bland, slightly encouraging news followed later by 'o dear it hasn't worked yet' updates. I need to see more real progress before believing in this again.
My observations of markets is that they tend to over-react to unexpected news The share price is now only a little more than 1/3rd what it was in Sept last year ... and the full year forecast was for revenue to be 3% below estimate and profit at bottom of range. What does this exactly mean is difficult to tell but my guess is Rev around 75-80 and profit 4-5 ... which at current price is a p/e of 7 ! I also think that they won't drop dividend entirely and could easily pay out 2p (on 80m shares thats only 1.6m cash which they easily generate. Brexit uncertainty has been so detrimental to so many industries, but it is probably going to reach a conclusion before year end and either way I think that will benefit a company like Van Elle. If nothing untoward results (which I think is most likely) then investment and confidence returns - if a recession and GBP / USD parity results (v.v.unlikely) any UK government is going to turn to the money tree and infrastructure investment to boost demand, again good for the likes of Van Elle
imho this is an overlooked stock. I bought in Feb '18 expecting a price rise to 100-125p within 12mths. This didn't happen, quite the opposite, but I have this week averaged down significantly by upping my holding 150%. I think there is so much upside potential here and even the full year results update is positive ... the directors have skin in the game so no need to peddle bogus claims just to keep their jobs and salaries when they stand to lose on the equity. Could easily double on goodish, sustainable news
And now Petersom its c.45p, another 15% drop since your post. I don't now what to do here, tempted to average down but am just throwing good money after bad? Its depressing that there are so few posts on this board, yours was nearly 3 months ago. When PIs give up and lose interest like this the SP will just drift in one direction, virtually daily
The level to which these shares have fallen is just mind blowing. Prior to today's rise VANL was trading at an implied 2.5x 2018 EBITDA, 30%+ Operating FCF Yield (defined as EBITDA-Capex), an 8.5%+ dividend yield and a P/E of less than 5x. I know the construction sector has been suffering, I know the construction sector is cyclical, I know that there have been company specific problems... BUT 2.5x EBITDA / a 30% OpFCF yield. Just amazing at the (mis)pricing that can happen in the micro cap space. Even after today's relief rally the shares are still basically priced for complete disaster. If management have really stabilised the ship (and of course if, but today's update sounds promising) then today should just be a taster of the further potential re-rating on an 18M view
Maybe an over reaction, maybe not, my average is 88p by the way. Do I feel confident enough to average down? Hmmmm!!! I feel I hold more promising shares than this, I thought that VANL would be good exposure to the HS2 millions. Not working out. At least they have retained a dividend, albeit reduced.
Sadly not, its a great shame that there is still so much infighting between the current mgt and the previous ones who happen to be major holders of the co. I once invested very early in VANL but came out very quickly with a reasonable profit and since then the sp has come down and hovers around the 80 mark. Best hope is that a bigger co like KLR buys the co but i doubt it with the current uncertainty.
Is there anybody there (there, there, there, there....) I have other shares where there are 50-100 posts each and every day, even when there is absolutely no news whatsoever. Last post of here was nearly 5 months ago, and that was....let me see......me!! I'm just hoping that this company is simply getting on with the job and will benefit from HS2 in the fullness of time.
It would be nice if the new chief executive purchased with his own money shares in the company to show the shareholders he has confidence in the company's future, although I doubt this will happen as he has just been given 332 thousand shares as a golden hallo, why should he use his own money.
I believe that what is depressing the sp is the ongoing tussle between the current mgt and the Ellis family who are very major shareholders. The recent results were very good and bare in mind that VANL with KLR who is the biggest player in the industry dominate the market. But as long as the dispute goes on, i fear the sp will not show its real value.