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Morning team. I’m going to spend more time watching Val, my other investments are struggling or flat.
@porky...why do you react to peoples posts? If you keep reacting to the posts, how are you ever going to be free? These people are pulling strings and you are reacting. People will always have an opinion. Everyone has an opinion. Ignore them and focus on your mental health and your business/work/family. See you at the end of this month.
Busy day for me. Before I go to bed I wanted to share some thoughts on what will happen this week.
RNS this week:-
This is my top reason why the MM moved the price suddenly on Friday. My bet is that we could get news on VAL301 this week. I think if Suzy is smart then she will build momentum before the big news. If she can close VAL301 then the market will start to think that she will close VAL201 and VAl 401. Price will start to move back up again.
TAKEOVER :-
When is the best time to buy a company? When its down and out of favour. Yes, last year there were rumours that AZ was going to buy VAL at £1 to £1.20. What an opportunity to buy it now? I dont think anyone should discount this. This is a real possibility. This is the perfect time for big biotechs to start buying out small companies. We are in a real danager of being bought out. We attracted high calibre shareholders like Adam. What did he see in VAL that he didnt see in any other stock? Why cant we attract AZ or another Biotech? Dont ignore this.
The Adam affect:- So what is Adam affect?
Since I read Adam's post on Wednesday i have been very relaxed. I noticed that many other shareholders are also feeling more relaxed and starting to anticipate something good is going to happen. Adam has bought back the feeling of hopefulness and confidence about the future of VAL. I think he is the right person to be speaking to the BOD. He knows his stuff and in my book he is in top 20% in this filed in the UK/USA. If Suzy listens then you will see massive changes and progress in the coming weeks and months. We are lucky to have him as our major shareholder.
I have a strong feeling that MM read his posts and they are also anticipating news. Worth reading his post again. Lots of information. Posted on 3rd @ 16:22.
Supply and Demand
SP moves on supply and demand. Maybe there wasnt much selling at 10p/11p/12p and so the MM wanted to move the price higher so that can get some stock back. Dont forget the MM only make money when there are buys and sells. The volume has been drying up at 10p/11p/12p so the next level on the charts where MM will find buyers and sellers is probably at 18p to 26p. This is where we have spent most of the time since Suzy took over.
Previous Placing:-History repeats!
If you look at the previous two placing. SP started to move up after 4 weeks. There is a saying that SP has "memory". If that is the case then we start to move back up in the coming days and weeks.
@Porky,
I find myself agreeing with you (!) re: new board members.
We have a poorly performing NEC, with a track record of delivering nothing but a badly timed fundraise, a yankee doodle dandy and a frivolous broker appointment.
Entrusting him to help run a new strategy seems to be an ill-fated plan.
New, dynamic NEC's/NED's are needed.
@Sporky look if they were placing for the lab it would have been done. Strategy changed and now it's about building again. As Adam stated the expectation was the SP would rise from 30s after the deal and that would have allowed them to do what they needed to do. It can still happen but incentive is to get to 50s or more first as you cannot raise much for an asset at these prices.
@Porky you stated 84p pre licensing. You state no funding ok no funding but you also stated 240p after deal. If funding happens I am sure your prediction will be 240p for VAL again from 12p where we currently are. FACT TRX are patent specialists and are planning on getting a new 20 year patent for 201 therefore huge value in terms of revenue and milestones. Maybe going to 100s million or billions in revenue over the years if results are as good as expected.
TRX will be driven to satisfy their investors. They will have to deliver for them so will do the trials quickly and efficiently once funding is completed soon. They have a prostate cancer specialist and patent specialist with experience so the perfect team and not just some start up. They don't need to prove anything to us yet that is being done to their investors.
All in all my very low and modest prediction of 50p after the deal stands and 20-30p pre deal at least. Don't forget as it stands according to opinions of experts TNBC is alone worth our market cap so we are effectively at approx 0p. Now unfortunately it is difficult for a stock to go below 0p. Also with cash.
Every few years AIM throws an opportunity of a lifetime to multibag. In my view this is it.
Anyway we can agree to disagree see you at the end of August and please take Sporky with you. Deep down I know you are waiting for your funds to arrive so you can buy and you are simply attempting to keep SP low to buy later.
@Porky9 nobody likes a show off. You’ve been proved right, probably more by luck than judgement but you don’t need to rub our nose in it. The question is what’s the direction of travel now and personally I’m not confident at all in Thx and expect it to fail. So I’d rather the Board place now and fund the Lab so we look forward rather than over our shoulder. But I posted encouraging this in the 20s, they didn’t and look what happened. If they place after a fail it will be a total screw up. In fact it has been a total screw up.
@Chesh
You are posting utter BS
I have only sold stock ONCE and that was on the 2nd November - 1m shares at 38p and something like 300,000 in the low 40s. I currently hold 400,000 not sold that frankly i now regret not also selling at that same level.
Prior to that i was VERY happy buying and adding to my position and VERY bullish.
What changed my position was that I was expecting 201 which i consider the crown jewels of the legacy drugs to get taken up by a major, AZN or a big well funded player or similar.
I was shocked to the core to find they were looking to give those assets over to a start up stateside SPV that had no capital and no history of taking a drug to commercialisation.
Since that RNS, we have had nothing but disappointment from this start up with failed delivery timelines, no payment for the support contract and now the timeline for them to completely removed all together. Even if they get the first bit of cash to VAL for the milestones over the next 24 mths we have no guarantees they still wont struggle to get more capital to pay us later. I also don't like the secrecy around this start up. No prospectus, no Information.
Now the ramping club here wont like me for pointing out this obvious point above but its how it is. I wasn't much of a fan of the back slapping on placement day either. Yes, well done they kept the lights on by forcing a 10p placement BUT shareholders took a massive hit, a hit that IMO could have been avoided or materially reduced had they acted sooner. As i said last week, even had they acted at the start of April, some 8 weeks earlier we were still at 30p. We now have massive dilution as a result. You telling me that mid April they still were confident the money was landing before end of June. I would want to know who the lead investors are who is backing it etc etc.
Anyhow my opinion, or what i do makes no difference. It's now down to VAL to deliver. I stand by my call that the BOD needs strengthening with two appointments to avoid repeat of past mistakes and IF its looking like THX cant get the initial payments to us then they act quickly and move to find a partner that can.
It's business, not a social club of who VAL like working with, sorry if that offends..
GLA, back end of the month to see how event's unfold, not commenting further so don't draw me in.
They make the appointments, sort the lab plans, get some control over the future of 201 and they can move forwards. Otherwise IMO its business as usual, no change and what CAB runway they currently have will burn down again until they need another raise and i want to avoid that.
GLA
Nope...........!
the RNS came out later than 02 Nov 2021 00:40
All the best (re-read the subsequent posts...........! :()
Cash do you mean this post from Porky?
What we are seeing is a rerate of the company
We have been materially undervalued for so long that many have just got used to it but it’s as clear as day to see when you compare us to our peers.
My stance remains at 74p to 85p pre licensing as continually stated. 80p being £52m mcap bang on the peer group average and significantly higher after deals.
Let’s explore this further based on deals.
Currently we can’t know what Valirx are negotiating behind the scenes or their success in negotiations. We can only speculate. What we do know is that taking curved balls out of the equation, both 201 and 301 are packaged ready to go and so is possibly 401 as its a reformulated generic drug with a much shorter route to market. So potentially three horses in the stable ready to run.
From my own independent research and please do your own, the Prostate cancer drugs market last year, where 201 is positioned, was worth $11.2bn USD and growing
Meanwhile, the Endometriosis drugs market where 301 is positioned, is worth just short of a $2bn USD market size with expected growth to $2.2bn by 2027
The pancreatic cancer drugs market last year, where 401 is positioned, was worth $2.6bn last year and expected to rise to almost $3.8 by 2027 So we are talking big numbers here.
Our mcap tonight at 53p is still a mere £ 34m, I want to post that again because some are just not getting it, we are valued at £ 34m – This is not just materially undervalued, it is plain farcical.
Now we have explored from our peer group Sareum at £ 223m mcap and I believe we are potentially stronger and can overtake this Biotech. Mentioned a couple of days back was also RedX Pharma from our peer group, which spookily is also valued at £ 223m mcap.
RedX secured a back loaded $200m licensing deal on milestones including tiered royalties in mid-single digit percentages, based on any future net sales. The upfront was $10m payment. On the day of the announcement the deal boosted their mcap value, marked up immediately by £ 30m and over the following 7 days the SP rallied by a further £ 100m value.
Now I’m not saying Valirx will do the same, all deals are different and have their merits but come on.
We have potentially THREE deals here to be done not just one. I could be totally wrong in my calculation but If I were a betting man, I would say 201 alone could be worth £200m and £10m down like the RedX deal. As such our market cap should run towards same, if it did, we would be looking at a circa £ 160m mcap value or £ 2.46 share price NOT a 54p one with the other deals still to come.
Uncannily, that’s slightly over OB’s target.
The market currently wants to see proof of deals. I believe we will see that shortly and when we do, we will see that step change in the share price and further rally, in the meantime the MMs are getting prepared for it.
IMO It is going to happen, this is why I’m a buyer and adding at this level
Remember remember, the 2nd of November......!
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/porky9/?page=71
All the best (as peeps were buying, porky was selling........! :()
with a "strong buy" rating......
Southerninvestor - That is the exact point I was trying to make with our mr porky. He has made worthy contributions here despite having his own agenda but let’s face it anyone of us who has skin in this game has an agenda, making some serious wedge for one ;-)
I agree that some don’t like varying opinions against the rampage.
It’s very wise to be balanced hence why I have questioned some on their assertions.
Yes I may not be as well informed as some on here but I know enough to make an educated decision.
One thing I really liked about Adam’s post was his comment that we should all pull together more and be less unkind to the bod.
It would be good to see a big investor on the bod though so our interests are represented by someone. Hopefully Adam can do this in a none official capacity.
Let’s hope we have some decent movement this week to back up Friday.
All the best :-)
I agree @DarkHero1981. Unfortunately the rampy squad don’t like any balance to their assertions of grandeur. That’s been the case all the way down from the 40s to where we are now. Closed minds lead to bad investment decisions and there’s plenty of evidence of that here. @Porky9 whilst he always has an agenda should be considered a worthy contributor and I think has hit the nail on the head several times with his posting on Val.
I generally stay away from these kind of shares, but the quality of debate here persuaded me to look into this share further and I ended up buying in early Friday, which appears to be good timing.
Listen one and all…. I am not blind to porkys antics I was just simply stating that he has made some valid points such as the bod needing to be bolstered which others have said as well.
I think a lot of posters on here have their own agenda so let’s not sugar coat it like it’s only one or two posters.
We all have opinions, those are a few of mine.
Totally agree TDK. All fairly one sided and taken out of context. He will likely buy in heavy when his funding comes and you will lose big selling at the absolute lows. You only have to refer back to Nov 2021 where he was stating we should be at least 60-70p before any deal. Well now we have TNBC worth an estimated 10 million and a deal should be concluded very soon therefore £1-£1.50 or more according to him.
He would be great if he wasn’t a lying snake with an agenda. If you are reading his posts and thinking I should follow him he’s leading you down a hole where you lose money for his gains.
That’s not fact but it’s my opinion.
Porky definitely adds some good points and information so maybe we should cut him some slack.
Cheers pal. Porky is obvious, credit tho he adds some detail and logic rather than one line deramping.
Have a nice Sunday all.
PM2022 - fair enough mate! Thanks for your input.
Darkhero not fact and not opinion. Details collected from various sources ranging from emails, twitter and the fact that the placing for wc was done last minute as the deal was expected to conclude. Suzy had already stated as well on Twitter and emails that progress was very significant and milestones have been reached so I conclude it will get done over the next few days/weeks. Also RNS indicated follow up RNS for 201 soon I think this was done as they are expecting it to conclude very soon not just a random statement.
Dealer55- Don't fall for Porky tricks. The dilution was small but since the 18-22 p range we have the Letter of Intent and we were generally between 40-45p before the first delay and without funding. We have since had TNBC news which is already worth about 10 million so no we should not be at this price. I would say we should be 50p before the deal but the markets are not great at the moment so 20-30s is the absolute minimum before the deal imo.
It seems that way TDK.
What posters dislike more than cross-posting are people making statements without backing them up with facts. I’m interested in this list too.
Porky
Was that answer to Adam a roundabout way of saying sorry I was actually talking out of my bum hole!! You have done alot worse than cross ramp in your time here so feel free to throw us a few bones.
I love an opportunity
@rhubarbmk2
Adam, I’m not going to cross promote. Forum members can’t stand any negative points as it is and last thing, they want is me promoting virtues of other plays to buy over #VAL. I wish you well with #VAL it has potential, but BOD needs bolstering for sure. I will pop back end of the month, lets see if THX revert by then.
@Iceman888
Its all relative, if #VAL add more product lines the cash burn will increase. The lab concept could however change that once they outline plans as its a way to bring income in rather than just burn money, especially if its still going to be a few years before any drug can reach commercialisation. I would back a placing for the lab at the right price.
The curve ball came from DHSC on #ODX but Colin’s P poor management was atrocious. Also, director sales Brady sold at 95p Rhodes sold at 79p were also telling. For me now on AIM stocks if Directors sell, I generally cash out. They know more than I do.
Incidentally, I also closed my position for a small profit on #SNT a while back. Again, another example where the business has a brilliant idea, namely b green but rather than build out under the AIM listing, pull a crafty and create a SPV partially owned by the business and bulk separately by the directors. Time and Time again we see directors totally abuse AIM and shareholders.
With #VAL I do think Suzy is an honest broker, that’s a major strength in this stock but she does need help, we both agree on that and that needs to change. Bring on board additions I say.
@dealer55
The job of the MM is to create a market, CFDs all kinds of things going on in the background with different interests manipulating the SP. If THX get funded or something material, we will get an RNS at open Monday otherwise expect swings. During 2021 i recall the SP bounced in the 18-22p range for about a year, we have far more shares in issue now so quite conceivable this could bounce around the 10p placing level for some time unless something material changes.
GLA check back in a few weeks.
Pork's
PM2022 - what is your justification for saying the deal is close to completion and big news is due soon?
Any actual facts to back up what you dated or just opinion?
Thanks Iceman. I thought the same as you described. I’ve held this for years bottom draw. Checking now and again.
Seems a peculiar move and interesting.
@ dealer55
I saw your question yesterday. Im still thinking about it. I have few reasons. Im just trying to see which could be the right one.
VAL started to move after 3pm on Friday. Why did MM suddenly start to move the price without any buying? I posted at 2:28pm on Friday. The level 2 was 5 vs 4 but suddenly it moved up and then the buying started. There are no trades between 14.19 to 15.12 on Friday. Why did MM moved the price?
Its very bullish for next week. We did have some selling at 3.40pm but then the price moved back up again in the last 20 minutes. If we close above 13p then i can see 16p minimum. But it could run to 18p to 20p. Very bullish close.
Im still thinking. Give me one day and ill reply.
@porky.... 4D were burning "one million pound per week" not month. Any business that produces zero INCOME and "burns borrowed one million pound per week" is not going to last long.