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Thanks Maddox
Universities have until the end of June to clarify their 'offer' for 20/21 and most are understandably holding back from announcing until the last minute to see what changes. UK Visa offices in the main markets have re-opened, so that removes one blockage that could have been an issue and the number of institutions that are accepting online English language testing to prove capability is increasing day by day.
International Students still want to come (in fact interest in the UK is higher than ever - see below), and don't seem to be put off by the prospect of quarantine on arrival, although I can't see that being in place by then. If it is, institutions and PBSA providers are putting in place discounted/ free rents for that period and practical support as necessary.
Also got to remember the geopolitical situation. The main alternative markets - the US and Aus are currently locked in disputes with China and in the case of the US especially, they have significant domestic issues that will drive students elsewhere. If BJ can keep out of the spat that US and Aus are having , the UK should do OK this year, so long as there is some face to face campus provision. Lectures are out, but seminars and tutorials likely to be face to face. Ignore the sensationalist reporting on Cambridge a couple of weeks ago - students will be on the ground there, too.
I've worked in International Education and Student Accommodation for 25 years and whilst no-one in the sector is saying international numbers won't be lower this year, the domestic pipeline is strong due to a rising 18 year old demographic and the higher ranked institutions (around which UTG focused their strategy a few years ago), should still do well.
DYOR of course, but long term, this is a strong hold for me.
Correction: Last sentence should read 'Campus style Universities shouldn't find segregation a particularly difficult task.'
'A new survey of international students by the British Council has found that nearly 14,000 fewer students from eight countries – including China, Singapore and Malaysia – are likely to come to the UK in 2020/21 in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The decline of 20% in students from east Asia would amount to a 12% fall in overall international student numbers, causing a £460m loss of income from tuition and living expenses such as accommodation.
While the fall in student numbers appears smaller than some institutions are anticipating, one worrying sign from the survey is that nearly 40% of those coming from China – the UK’s biggest source of overseas students – have yet to decide.
“Prospective international students are facing a lot of uncertainty, but many are clearly trying to find a way to keep their overseas study plans,” said Matt Durnin, the author of a report for the British Council.
“There is a window of opportunity over the next two months to create a greater sense of certainty about the upcoming academic year. If responses are clear and quickly communicated to prospective students, UK higher education will face a much more manageable scenario.”
The survey of prospective students found that 29% said they were likely to delay or cancel their plans to study. A majority of postgraduate applicants said they would rather postpone the start of their studies until January 2021 than begin with online teaching in autumn, while 46% of undergraduate applicants agreed.'
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jun/08/universities-face-460m-loss-from-expected-drop-in-east-asian-students-coronavirus
A few points to highlight:
>> Universities need to get their act together is they want their foreign students to turn-up; and
>> Students find online learning unappealing.
>> A 12% fall in foreign student numbers is bad but a lot better than some previous estimates.
This is a survey however and students' attitudes and intentions might change rapidly for better or for worse. Hopefully, Unis will wake up and smell the coffee soon. Students are at very little risk from Covid-19, they don't need extreme social distancing measures. The measures that are needed are to shield other vulnerable people that might interact with them, such as elderly lecturers, administrators, wardens, cleaners etc. Campus style Universities should find segregation a particularly difficult task.
Regards Maddox