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"He sees what's happening.. you all guess"
The term 'chump' would be overly flattering for both of you.
It sounds like some posters are missing Adrian's posts or tweets.
We didn't have to wait long ..................
"Personally I'm not bothered about production and water cut figure's "
My goodness - an oil company that doesn't have top worry about production Adrain! How... different
It would help if The Dear Leader would actually do an interview and Q&A and clear up some of these details.
Yawn,
Sometimes posts seem so familiar......
Don't kid yourself - it doesn't bother me at all - what bothers me is those trying to deceive - the 'bother' seems to be theirs.
btw the highest average water cuts in 2021 were in the months that UKOG tried producing more oil - but cut back the next month. But they still didn't get it as low as before the 2020 workover.
Yawn,
'Thank you for confirming HH1 was shut in for two weeks in September. I didn't know that.'
you didn't know that??? UKOG put it in a RNS ('UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that it has completed a planned two-week production facility upgrade') so I don't need to kow the days or waste my time watching the site like some - and finally I don't have friends on this board - probably unlike you - you mistake the purpose of this board - it's to discuss UKOG, not make friends.
Losing the plot? Hmm maybe you're the one that doesn't understand why UKOG are shutting the well in intermittently.
Theres a difference between the average water cut across a month - which probably represents approximately what UKOG are trying to achieve vs what happened in detail during the month and the hours/days when the well was producing.
During periods of production the intermittent shut-ins occur because the water cut is getting high, and the reservoir pressure getting too low and needs time to recover - with injection full replacement of fluids would be required to stop this happening.
Looking at ibug's estimate of income from the produced oil and what UKOG got in revenue (which includes Horndean) I'd say only 10% discount is generous.
"UKOG did well in keeping water production stable"
Nonsense - they kept the proportion stable whilst production dropped.
erm - is 27.3% not more than 26.3% - and FOTH keeps insisting that August and September 2021 OGA figures are not representative of full months production.
Average bopd in August 2020 128bopd
Average bopd in September 2021 45 bopd
Maintaining water cut during 2021 appears to be managed at a cost to oil production - but it is unlikely that the average oil and water production across the month of September 2021 is repesentative. Because the well was shut in for about 2 weeks in early September 2021 reservoir pressure may have recovered more than during the intermittent periods of shut ins during 'normal' production meaning relatively less water was produced for the remainder of September.
Thanks for pointing that September 2021 was an anomaly.
He sees what's happening.. you all guess
It sounds like some posters are missing Adrian's posts or tweets.
They must be very sad, lonely and bored people not being able to play today!
'Adrian knows more than all of us on here'
Your second ever post on this site:
'Been here since 2015.. 3.5 million shares...down a lot but still buying at these prices... ukog need some decent promo... bring back dave lennigas'
And your fourth:
'Watched all this banter for years...why people are on here slating the company day after day is ridiculous.. please go get a life you clearly dont have money invested here because if you did you would want the company to do well. If your not here for the good of all invested then please leave and dont come back'
In the 2 years since then, the share price is down 85%. Maybe the people slating the company knew more than the rampers and those who you say know more?
Adrian knows Jack s hi t e
If he did he wouldn't have been buying in from 0.18 :)
I know that Sanderson needs to go to jail for what he has done to this company and lth wealth. Also I know that rampers are trying to ramp this dog up to try and get out as they are So far down they are basically skint. Sando out ASAP
Nobody on here's knows precisely whats going on at horeshill day to day. Adrian knows more than all of us on here
Its only Thursday and we've already got Adrain back with us..................
The Blackhorse Badger Drinking Dipstick will be telling folks that it's free flowing and that he's seen them connect it to the secret pipeline and that he's also seen a prestigious high-end mineral water exec on-site to bottle the small volumes of extremely excellent water that they produce...
How come Epoisse de Bourgogne? You been sneaking down the path? Still waiting for a video of the pump stopped. Next you'll be telling us they held back the August oil to fool all the NIMBYS for September and October.
Water cut increased after the 2020 intervention as oil production reduced - so if water quantity reduced it was because of lower oil production not achieving a reduced water cut. Seems like they messed something up with that intervention.
2020
Aug 26.3%
Sept 25.2%
Oct 0.0% - workover
Nov 28.0%
Dec 29.5%
2021
Jan 34.6%
Feb 30.8%
Mar 32.5%
Apr 31.6%
May 28.5%
Jun 28.8%
Jul 29.0%
Aug 28.5%
Sep 27.2%
Spot on Penguins.
They need to be mindful that water ingress can be fatal for oil production. It's not just a case of getting a relatively stable water cut, it's more important to understand where that water is originating from versus the oil that is being recovered. If the locality of the oil being recovered stretches further and further from the well bore, but the water does not, then it could easily do a role reversal where oil becomes a small cut. That's very common in offshore where the water cut is considerably higher than oil in many many wells.
No doubt about it. The figures do not lie.
month bopd
Mar 20 181
Apr 20 243
May 20 183
Jun 20 158
Jul 20 122
Aug 20 128
Sep 20 93
Oct 20 47
Nov 20 101
Dec 20 82
Jan 21 102
Feb 21 99
Mar 21 105
Apr 21 101
May 21 100
Jun 21 95
Jul 21 92
Aug 21 82
Sep 21 45
prediction for October 80-90 bopd
The interesting thing about the Kimmeridge EWT was the continual reporting of about 220 bopd month after month until.......................what?
Let's not forget that as some posters believe they are making massive amounts of cash from each barrel produced why did they allow the average production (from official figures) to generally fall since late 2020 even excluding August and September's figures (October's next week)?
Apparently the restriction is not the cost of water diisposal as even pessimistic calculations suggest that the cost of disposal plus OPEX does not exceed the value of the oil. What we don't know from the averages is how the water cut varies following the intermittent shut-ins - how fast does it increase with longer producing periods?
A possible scenatio is that water cut increases during producing periods between shut-ins from a relatively low level - but there may be a point where it becomes an exponential increase as the reservoir pressure decreases locally around the well, whilst the pressure in the fractures fed water maintains its pressure. It may be there isn't much scope for increasing production even with minimal water disposal costs.
One interesting thing from the average daily production figures is that production levels dropped from 128bopd in the August before the September/October 2020 intervention to 101bopd in November, and has generally dropped since, when the intervention was to 'further optimise oil flow via reperforating the full Portland oil producing section, insertion of a new simplified production tubing string and by setting the downhole pump at a deeper level to increase pumping efficiency.'
So far any RNS suggestions of improved production have been somewhat hollow.
20 September 2021
"oil production has now been re-established." No conditions or any other comments to indicate cut in production or pumping in the RNS.
Cheesytoes,
Please provide the link to the RNS that states that production from HH1 is being restricted.
Thank you
That's rns 15 /1/21... ie we're still waiting for permission a year later
Or maybe Cynders could get a less boring job which gives him/her less periods of tedium to post mischief on a share in which he/she has no intention of ever invested?