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friggin hope not
Can see this touching low 30s.
@Peteret. I there is a war in Europe, personally I don’t think Putin is daft enough, it will affect the markets big time ; at least initially. Wimps are part of that market and will tank like everything else. It’s irrelevant whether war affects builders, it’s market sentiment that will affect the builders as it’s risk off again.
This is what Jeffries said yesterday.
JEFFERIES CUTS TAYLOR WIMPEY PRICE TARGET TO 202 (229) PENCE - 'BUY'
So it cuts it target to 202 but still says buy so its actually it a recommendation to buy .
If a war kicks of in Ukraine why should it affect Housebuilder's more than any one else. this drop is manipulation.
Taylor Wimpey have the cladding issue under control just read the update.
@Aspers. maybe Wimps will see £2 later this year, although given the headwinds that might not be realistic. Are you able to provide a some rationale for your prediction, or is it just a wish ...
Sentiment may well stay poor for a while, given the immediate issues:
Need to reach an accommodation with UK GOV re "cladding", by March
Interest rates WILL rise, and soon priming for "tech" sell off
Central Banks are reducing money supply, which puts markets I risk off mode
As long as Boris survives, UK GOV will continue to play popular politics with the builders
Wimps specific, uncertainty re Elliott and appointment of new CEO
All of the above will have a depressing effect on sentiment as the big investors wait for some certainty before making major commitments. Its hard to see any uplift in share price in the short term, and may be next year before Wimps share price (and builders in general) can start to reflect a more realistic valuation.
OK, I guess if you think this is "peace in our time" then buy. I added some at sub-150 in July last year, so my next target is 140. Let's see what happens...
Krustys…….sit on the sidelines if you wish but I think you have missed an opportunity to purchase below 150. I still expect to see TW around £2 by the end of the year.
aspers, and if Russia invades Ukraine (it's a BIG if...) you still think it will bounce back? What's the driver for a price recovery - Putin standing down his troops? Markets look set to remain extremely volatile for the foreseeable future IMHO. And remember we waved goodbye to the special bonus last week, subject to Board confirmation. I'll be watching rather than adding...
It's difficult to see much more downside to TW, I re-purchased a few this morning back into my ISA, having a play around trading it.
The markets everywhere are well down today with the jitters over the Russians. Some more than 10%. I expect a quick bounce back over the next day or so. A good chance to top up if you have any spare cash.
OK so the broker comments although it only downgraded bwy bkg bdev plus Ukraine tensions are these the only reasons builder's are down today? Seems a bit of an overreaction!!
Jefferies considers cladding issues, downgrades three UK housebuilders
Mon, 24th Jan 2022 10:28
(Sharecast News) - Jefferies downgraded its recommendation on three UK housebuilders on Monday as it assessed the impact of cladding issues.
The bank downgraded Barratt Developments, Bellway and Berkeley Group to 'hold' from 'buy'.
It said that whether housebuilders should or will shoulder the whole burden of cladding remediation is a "complex and emotive" discussion. Even including a worst-case scenario of 12% tax rate to fund remediation, it still sees value in the sector.
Jefferies' top picks are buy-rated Persimmon, Crest Nicholson & Redrow. "Despite stepping up tax by a further 8% in FY22, we remain buyers of Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Crest Nicholson, Redrow and Vistry," it said.
"Against the backdrop of what could be a loud campaign from government, share prices could see significant volatility in the coming months. However we still believe there to be opportunity in the sector."
As far as Barratt, Bellway and Berkeley are concerned, Jefferies said that for those housebuilders who provisioned under the previous scope - i.e. buildings above 18 metres - and/or where they are the 'responsible person', it sees risk of further one-off charges and cash outs for cladding remediation, as well as negative PR.
"At this stage we believe even the housebuilders themselves do not know the full extent of the cost (M&A through the period, lack of access, uncertain 'solutions', labour constraints, clawback from freeholders) but with approximately 55% of the high rise buildings requiring remediation in London, we believe it is fair to assume the exposure to those with a long history of build in the Capital could be more substantial," it said.
"Until there is greater understanding of the scale and cost of remedying their own build, our price targets reflect this higher risk profile, and share price performance constrained."
The bank cut its price target on Barratt to 644p from 851p, while Berkeley's was reduced to 4,703p from 6,212p. Jefferies cut the price target on Bellway to 3,339p from 4,187p