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You need to be on the TXP discord. Sounds like you know a lot about Trin that us TXP folk don't. Please join :)
https://discord.gg/mAFPPDtx
I wonder what the acquisition would mean for the new Buenos Ayres block as well. Surely TRIN new they were cash strapped from beforehand so how were they planning to fully develop Buneos Ayres. Would this now pass to TXP without issue or would the process to win the block have to be revised once more?
Given TXP doesn't have offshore experience will they be able to see value and develop Galeota going forward? I find it highly unlikely that a lack of capital was the only issue that TRIN experienced in pushing Galeota forward.
I’m guessing TXP’s price dropped cause their share holders may have an idea of just how bad TRIN is and the acquisition wouldn’t most likely have any near-term value add options.
1) TRIN’s reserves at the 2P level have been reduced and figures have shifted into 2C level according to the oak bloke blog post. Perhaps they were overly optimistic in the past about their actual capabilities so I see this as a bad sign.
2) In the past few years, they’ve hired more and more foreign direct and indirect executives yet the company itself hasn’t developed further in output. Production continues to decline at a rate of 10% or more.
3) They have paid $8mln for Jacobin which I think is quite a bit over the original budget, why wasn’t a stop loss marker of sorts put into place? Provided those depths hadn’t been tested yet but the entire T&T region is highly mature they should have known with the ongoing geopolitical risks and other local unknowns that the value they could have realistically gotten from this endeavour would be unlikely.
4) They need to take as much upside as they can get yet they royally screwed up by getting too greedy with financial instruments in 2022. The executives should have never in my opinion allowed the company to take out such instruments. Having open-ended unlimited obligations is the worst thing they could have done. Sure they didn’t know what oil prices would have been at the time, but they could have paid for a simple put/put spread instrument to protect their down side from the very beginning. If they didn’t have the cash to cover it all they could have reduced the period of coverage or the amount of production hedged.
5) The Galeota fire incident I’m sure would have set them back as well. A lot of the T&T infrastructure is more than likely very aged. So repairing and implementing updated systems to deal with this issue would have been another factor to consider that has taken away a chunk of their cash
6) Paying to fix or investigate the cyber-attack issue would be another concern. Provided that they are an oil company and can’t seem to get anything right are we sure that since the incident they’ve been able to get top notch IT persons to secure their current data? I’d be scared about a transition of data from one company to another in case a computer virus or trojan infects the other company’s data assets.
Could you resend a working link to the discord please? I couldn't get through with the last posted link. Thanks
For those of you interested, Touchstone just held a conference call which was recorded on the Investor Meet Company website about some more details on the merger and benefits, looks like will not complete until Q3 anyway, so still time for anything to happen...
... so just thougt I would test the chat board, just popping over from TXP to check out the vibe :-)
First off it’s TXP, and second off you need to do your homework to understand the upside you are to be given here. I think you’re getting too much, would have rather seen a 1:1 ratio.
I have a very comprehensive wiki in the the TXP Discord, you should check it out.
I have watched the TRIN presentation. So the share ratio of 1.5 TRX to 1 TRIN was agreed in November 2023 when the TRX share price was 51p. So the consideration we would now get is far lower. I must say that is disappointing. I await the TRX presentation to see what the business case going forward is, but I am not jumping for joy here. TRIN is valued far lower than TRX simply because it hadn't got the cash, but TRX are borrowing theirs!
And in keeping with recent form, no presentation on the website as yet....presume it appears this evening otherwise it's just ridiculous to put that in the RNS today...again
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/05/01/touchstone-bid-lights-up-trinity-s-shares/
I'm amazed the Touchestone share price has dropped on this news, from the aquisition .should it proceed..would allow utilisation of the TRIN tax losses and be highly value accretive. The acquired TRIN assets are trading at a quite ridiculous discount to NAV tbh which is why I bought in first place...the issue is we are giving up a lot of our future upside potential for peanuts because TRIN doesn't have funding...I'm not sure what TXPs upside is like tbh.. I would like to review some TXP stats which show your projected profit, EV and valuation per 2p reserves etc. and how it would look post transaction..so I can understand if you are as undervalued as TRIN. And see the synergies on offer.
I have been told my TRIN investor relations today on email that there will be a recorded presentation released later
It’s a good deal because you’re getting TXP paper at a very low price. Think about that and the doubling of TXP production by year end before saying the TRIN takeover is poor value.
If someone else came in and offered you 75-100p cash, I would say TXP with imminent growth is a much better way for you to recover losses and make upside profit on both TXP and TRIN assets
Touchstone has dropped 50% in less than a year, and dropped further on the announcement.
As a Touchstone holder I'm not convinced they're the best company to take TRIN forward.
it's undervaluing trin imo, stripping out cash they are taking this at a ridiculously low price! i think i agree with others, are there any counter bids coming in...if they had offered closer to 100p i'd be more comfortable...but their share price is on its ****...i think a rival bid could still come in given how cheap trin is so would not be selling at this price
This is messy for me, I already hold some TXP in my SIPP but my TRIN are in an ISA.
I was already considering selling TXP, I wouldn't want any more but need to study a bit more to see what this means for TXP.
I'm way down on TRIN even with this spike. I'll probably watch to see what happens in the next few days but I'm of a mind to dump TRIN and take the cash before the deal goes through.
Not to much chat here 14 posts to 9.30am on this news.
2 in the 5 days after my last post .
Share price yesterday of 36p the lowest since 2021 consolation .
Hindsight should of cut the loss on last August spike to 95p
11/1/24 Down 18% 36p
7/8/23 Up 35% to 95p
Todays news .
On AIM, Trinity Exploration surged 47%. Touchstone Exploration fell 4.4%. Touchstone said it has struck an all-share deal to acquire Trinity.
The all-share agreement values the latter at GBP24.1 million. Touchstone Exploration, an oil and natural gas exploration and production active in Trinidad & Tobago, said the deal will create a "leading Trinidadian operator of scale".
It said: "The addition of Trinity's existing production portfolio, along with its exploration and development assets, will position the combined group as one of the leading independent operating companies dedicated to investing in both onshore and offshore activity to grow Trinidadian oil and gas production."
As part of the deal, Trinity shareholders will receive 1.5 new Touchstone shares for each Trinity share owned. Trinity Shareholders will own just under 20% of the combined firm. Trinity directors consider the terms of the deal to be "fair and reasonable".
67% of the shares are held by the >5% crew, I can't see them agreeing to this initial offer considering the recent SP performance.
"Trinity's issued ordinary share capital (excluding Trinity Shares held in treasury) as at 30 April 2024 (being the latest practicable date prior to the date of this announcement) are supportive of the Acquisition and have each entered into irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and the resolutions to be proposed at the General Meeting."
Seems unlikely a further offer would be required.
Why would the offer change???
"The board of directors of each of Touchstone and Trinity are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended all share offer pursuant to which Touchstone will acquire the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Trinity (the "Acquisition"). The Acquisition is to be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act."
Based on the probable improvement in the offer , this is the easiest 20% you could ever make. I'm in for another 20,000
TRIN just lack the skills (and the petro geologists) to make a success so I am happier with TXP than without. (I hold both anyway)
Guess I should invite you lot into the TXP discord now. There are a couple wiki channels for Trinity stuff, feel free to post any relevant info you have there. If you’re easily offended or woke, the Discord isn’t going to be a good place for you. Have fun.
https://discord.gg/JTUEtd6j
They will end up improving this offer to around 75 to 80p, but that could be 6 to 8 weeks away.
It is not even half e yet. See where it goes