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Yes, we all hope it will be great with Jacobin, like many previous schemes. However, we as shareholders have been losing value for years. The management don't share that pain - they always gain from each incentive scheme. I have been holding here for more than 6 years so I have seen it all before. Trinity just hasn't delivered. Maybe this year they will give us a little titbit of a dividend!
The incentives were set by Trinity’s remuneration committee, which until recently and at the time these awards were issued included Angus Winther and David Segel. Those two own 18.6% of Trinity. You can be confident that they were planning for company growth and shareholder returns, not intending to reward failure. In any event, these are exciting times as we await the next Jacobin update and find out how much it will increase production by.
PipeDragger- Don't understand what you are talking about. Do you think the pressure test results is not going to be good?
The new definition of success is TRIN being no worse than its peers. I preferred it when they were focussed on absolute shareholder return, growing production etc. Snouts in the trough all the way.
I use IG as my trading / investment platform. However every morning i notice that TRIN is marked with an X meaning you can't trade any shares with it. This often happens when a share goes berserk in either direction. I don't know the dark arts of the MMs but every morning there seems to be a period when something is happening with the TRIN share market. Be interested to know if anybody as noticed something similar or possible reasons whey this is happening.
Good luck all.
SuperRoty
“a big discounted placement to flow test and bring the well into production”
Not sure that even the most sceptical folk on here think that, and there are few on here more sceptical than me. Folk sell for a rainbow coalition of reasons.
A lot selling out expecting a big discounted placement to flow test and bring the well into production. They need to do a bit more research as TRIN is already producing nearly 3000 bopd and have enough cash in the bank. I am adding.
Divi on the way. Production about to increase significantly. Why are there so many sellers at this price??? Price was 170 on no news except for imminent political reform on taxes to increase margin. This has to be a raving guy as suggested by the Investors chronicle a while ago. Held these shares for 7 years and always said I carried too many of them for my portfolio but right now I don’t think I have! As you can tell I am excited for the first time in a while
As I noted before, nothing really counts until the well has been flowed and shut-in pressure checked.
PipeDragger
So what? TXP’s last Royston production test “produced light crude oil, with wellhead shut in pressure up to 2,450 pounds per square inch. Production flowed to the surface at non-commercial rates. This section of the formation appears to be a low permeability reservoir, and further testing will not be conducted.”
The Royston wellhead figure could presumably have been 3,500psi with the same result. And Jacobin’s production tests could presumably still be as disappointing as Royston’s have been thus far.
Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-pawnbrokers-longboats-and-the-trinity/
Jon Cooper looks like a good addition to the board. He replaces Angus Winther, who resigned at the AGM and who also had a financial background.
One of the differences between Trinity and many other AIM companies is the depth of its board. We’re now back to having four non-executive directors and a non-executive chairman. They all have extensive oil and gas management experience (James Menzies and Mr Cooper are chief executives, Derek Hudson was a Shell Vice President and Country Chairman for Trinidad and Tobago, and Kaat Van Hecke was an interim chief executive for 9 months as Nostrum), and two are also geologists (Mr Menzies and Mr Hudson).
7,500 psi at 10,000ft depth, I work that out at roughly 3,500 psi at surface. That is very strong indeed. Won't need any pump behind that. I look forward to the well test results.
Very promising appointments confirmed today. This discovery like I said the other day for Trinity is very significant indeed and I stand by my prediction that this has short term £3-£5 a share written all over it...
Here are some of the local reports on Trinity’s “very significant and material achievement” of discovering oil at Jacobin, in both the primary targets and the secondary target (“adding to the commercial attractiveness of the well”), that validates the “geological model and are within pre-drill range for a commercial discovery”:
https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/trinity-discovers-virgin-oil-onshore-trinidad/article_6fc20406-358a-11ee-8fca-871b7bc91da6.html
https://guardian.co.tt/business/trinity-discovers-virgin-oil-in-new-well-6.2.1770855.3d6f141de1
https://newsday.co.tt/2023/08/07/trinity-confirms-palo-seco-onshore-oil-find/
https://tt.loopnews.com/content/trinitys-jacobin-1-oil-discovery-confirmed
Trinity have been confident about Jacobin for some time. They’ve made that confidence clear, including by going as far as to describe it as an appraisal well rather than an exploration well (see the box on the right hand side of page 12 of https://trinityexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Investor-Technical-Presentation-June-2023-Hummingbird-Buenos-Ayres-vF.pdf) and by stating that the 63% chance of success was about as good as it gets in the oil industry. Jacobin was never a speculative drill, but rather the result of years of careful analysis and planning supervised in part by independent experts.
Trinity’s confidence in Jacobin clearly remains. There’s little caution in describing the discovery as “very significant and material”. Furthermore, it’s notable that the purpose of the heavy-duty workover rig, that will soon replace the drilling rig, is “to run the completion, perforate and tie the well into production facilities.” Why would they want to tie the well into production facilities other than because they intend to produce from it?
Obviously we’ll have to wait for the production figures, but part of the excitement of Jacobin’s primary targets is the high “virgin pressures” as no production has previously been taken from these pools.
Of course, the bigger prize remains that Jacobin unlocks the other eight deep prospects and Buenos Ayers. More details will follow in September, but after a very slow start to drilling (not much has happened over the past three years whilst the careful analysis has been taking place) these are now exciting times.
Looks like the share price is moving sideway or down a bit until flow test results?
I agree with Rossannan. Wells have to be flow tested then shut-in to see if the pressure comes back. If it flows well and then the shut-in pressure stays super high then they have a great find. If the shut-in pressure doesn't come back then they have a little pocket. I think they know the geology well enough that it is highly likely to be a good find. Just have to wait another month or so for the flow data
Ab76
That barrage of quotes does not really answer the question, but if you like I will put it another way: on what basis can they suggest that Jacobin is commercial when it has not even been flow tested?
Doubtful that Trin would deploy a heavy duty workover rig and crew if there wasnt a commercial value to the well. They know its commercial, they dont know to what extent.
Https://twitter.com/i/status/1688619664870400000
Expect more people buying into TRIN and PTRO today (also work a look), they finished in the top 5 risers on the leaderboard yesterday so getting very much noticed, TRIN finished 3rd and PTRO top of the pack .
Here's hoping for another solid day on both
…The well has been cased to 10,021 feet and is being prepared for a series of production tests that is likely to commence with the deepest oil-bearing reservoir, and first production is expected during September. This timeline is driven by the demobilisation of the drilling rig from the site and installation of a heavy-duty workover rig to run the completion, perforate and tie the well into production facilities. A further update on production rates, fluid properties, as well as future plans will be provided at that time.
The Jacobin results validate both the structural and stratigraphic model demonstrating the existence of a deeper turbidite play across Trinity's entire Palo Seco area, and the recently awarded Buenos Ayres block. The integration of the onshore 3D seismic over the Lease Operatorship blocks purchased in 2021 has been key to the understanding of the sub-surface. Data from the well will now be used to de-risk and re-rank the remaining "Hummingbird" prospects across the Palo Seco blocks and those recently mapped within the Buenos Ayres block.
Jeremy Bridglalsingh, Chief Executive Officer of Trinity, said, "This is a very significant and material achievement by the Team. To find virgin oil in our mature acreage points to a step-change in our understanding of the hydrocarbon system, the remaining resource potential and how we can approach the exploitation of these resources.
"I would like to congratulate the Trinity Team on this success. We have demonstrated a true competitive advantage by the hard work in, building our geological understanding, working through the many aspects of planning and delivering a complex well and critically, safe execution of drilling operations.
"I would also like to thank our partner Heritage, for their valued help and assistance in facilitating the drilling of this well. The next step is to undertake a full production testing programme, that is expected to commence during September. We look forward to updating shareholders on our progress."
Here’s Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy Chamber (see https://energynow.tt/blog/trinity-jacobin-1-oil-discovery-confirmed ) write up on Jacobin:
Trinity Exploration has confirmed the Jacobin-1 oil discovery in the Palo Seco area. The company has stated that over 290 feet of net oil pay was encountered in the Jacobin well, including 63 feet of net oil pay in the deeper exploration targets.
While production volumes are still to be determined, the news of the exploration success will be welcomed in Trinidad & Tobago, where oil production has been declining for many years. In an attempt to attract new investment in Trinidad’s mature oil sector the Government responded to industry advocacy in 2022 and made some changes to the tax regime to improve project economics and attract investment in oil production. These changes included making permanent the previously temporary measure to raise the threshold price at which windfall Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) comes into effect for small onshore producers (defined as companies producing less than 4,000 barrels per day). Other changes introduced last year also included a new lower sliding scale SPT for production from new offshore wells. While these changes were welcome by the industry and helped attract investment from companies like Trinity, there has been a continued call for further reforms to encourage new investment in mature fields and the infrastructure needed to safely increase production.
The Jacobin-1 well was spudded on 15 May 2023 with an objective to appraise and explore the potential of Lower Cruse sandstones within the Palo Seco area of the prolific Southern Basin.
According to Trinity, drilling samples, wireline logs and pressure testing indicate that the well encountered significant reservoir and hydrocarbon accumulations in the Lower Forest, Upper Cruse and Lower Cruse. The exploration section of the well encountered net reservoir thicknesses varying between 45 to 190 feet. An aggregate of 63 feet of net hydrocarbon pay was identified in the deeper exploration section of the well. Reservoir pressures appear to be high (up to 7,500psi) and indicate virgin pressures.
In addition, and as previously announced, 228 feet of net pay was found in the secondary target section, adding to the commercial attractiveness of the well.
Data acquired from the well are being analysed further by Trinity's reservoir and petroleum engineering teams through dynamic modelling to design an optimal completions strategy for the stacked pay encountered within the exploration section…
On what basis can you say that “Jacobin is commercial” when it has not even been flow tested?
And here’s Malcy’s comment:
“This is undoubtedly a great find by Trinity, over 290′ of net pay in the well and deeper targets is not to be sneezed at. They say that there is a ‘significant reservoir and hydrocarbon accumulation in the Lower Forrest and the upper and lower Cruse’ which sounds good.
“However at present there are no flow rates, the drilling rig is being replaced with a heavy duty workover rig in order to not only test but also run the completion, perforate and tie the well into production facilities. This means I guess that the company are certain of the well flowing but I would just prefer to see the flow rates before giving it a definitive value.”
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/08/oil-price-beacon-trinity-egdon-reabold-prospex-and-finally/
Touchstone appears to have risen today, at least in part, in sympathy with Trinity. Although they’re different, success with Royston’s testing (which is due soon) may repay the favour whilst we wait for September’s results.
Here’s the link: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/08/07/an-oil-stock-that-could-double-in-value/