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I listened to the presentation. Impression I got was they recognised that their secrecy was destroying the valuation. On Jacobin they seemed to be downplaying the significance of the deepest zone. That seemed odd as it is a high pressure (ie greatest potential flow rate) zone. There was very little talk about how this ultimately could translate into revenue. Year after year it is the same message that the road to commercial success (shareholder value) is just a few months away. I am not under pressure to sell fast but I do want a return after 7 years of these sorts of events.
Oil will flow from Jacobin, no doubt.
Will be good to get an idea how much the BOD anticipate this to be?
Roll on the investor meet.
Cheers.
JB is a number cruncher, they do not have a leader.
After a few years of stagnation next year feels pretty crucial for Trin and realising value. For years the commentary on the company has been that it's exceedingly undervalued, a low cost producer, minimal debt etc. etc.
The changes to SPT were noted as the catalyst for change and after years of lobbying, the government are finally starting to make amendments to the taxation thresholds
With oil hovering around £90/barrel, tax reforms underway, dividend starting to be rolled out - if they can't deliver for shareholders now, who's going to have any hope in 12 months time?
In 2017 TRIN rode from 6p up to 26p in 2018 and the company has been treading along ever since while the SP has dwindled back down to 6p
Under BD the company communicated with shareholders well and there was a lot of trust in the process - Unfortunately JB has failed to take the business to the next level
SuperRoty
I think you maybe need to read the RNS again.
Im out. This well is too costly, problematic and likely non commercial flow rates. Not saying they cant overcone it but I see better less risky buys.
30p coming soon.
Oh well. Price will get hammered today.
It is certainly not looking good. One wonders at how some of the key Investors feel - like the Newlands who own more than 10% and bought most of that when the share price was more than double now. They got well shafted at the last funding/dilution event a few years back. It is just maddening that TRIN are keeping us in the dark.
Now lower than before the so say discovery. The market has priced this in as a duster together with a further write down for the overrun of drilling costs. No news is taken as bad news in oil exploration so the company needs to keep investors better informed if delays, problems and failures
They have always been very poor with comms. That's why Im holding. Q3 ops update imminent (poss Thurs) so we may know more then.
The weeks drag on and nothing. Did theu drill a tiny pocket of excitement or a large gusher. The market clearly guesses it is the former.
Oil is recovering so I am buying. Looking oversold here regardless of flow rates which I am sure are being tested now
Anyone new here ought to know the company is not great at news flow. They could be flow testing now and will only report back when it is completed.
It matters zip until there is flow data. They said they would start flow testing in September. It didn't happen but that is just the norm for the sleepy company that is TRIN. is it a 50 bopd or a 1000 bopd? TRIN aren't saying. Price is going down for that reason.
The “current silence on Jacobin”?
Just a week ago we were told in the interim results that:
1. “Final testing of equipment is currently in progress and initial production is anticipated within days. Oil produced will immediately be sold to the state oil company, Heritage.”
2. “The increased facility will provide Trinity with the flexibility to follow-up on the play-opening Jacobin-1 well, targeting further onshore activity.”
3. Our “Jacobin-1 well successfully intersected multiple oil-bearing sands. Success with Jacobin increases our confidence in the portfolio of Hummingbird prospects that forms a cornerstone of our revitalised onshore strategy.”
We’ve also been told, via Twitter, that a retail investor event is expected in the second half of October (presumably after the Jacobin production results are known and can be discussed) - see https://twitter.com/Trinity_PLC/status/1707796258314768427
Simon Thompson of IC has been promoting TRIN for many, many years. Maybe one day it will all happen. One can only guess at what the current silence on Jacobin progress means. (I remember the wells drilled at the end of last year were quietly forgotten about but it will be harder to hide the deep well as it is so expensive).
Wow. The market sure doesn't like this share. With a maiden divi, new discovery about to be tested and positive budget changes, I find it hard to see why the drop is so severe even with the global softening of oil prices.
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/10/03/an-undervalued-oil-play/
The Budget Statement’s been published at https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023.10.02-2024-Budget-Statement.pdf
There’s this on page 60:
“To assist this process, in the Finance Bill 2023, I will make further appropriate adjustments to the supplementary petroleum tax regime for small oil producers in the shallow water areas, similar to what we have done for small onshore producers. We will also re-examine the capital expenditure write-off regime to
determine what changes can be made without sacrificing too much revenue.”
It’s followed up on page 128:
“I propose to increase the Sustainability Incentive from 20 percent to 25 percent with respect to the rate of supplemental petroleum tax for any mature marine or small marine oil fields. This will encourage smaller oil producers and lease operators in small and mature marine oil fields to incentivise further their production. In the Finance Act 2023, I also propose to introduce adjustments to the SPT regime for the shallow water areas, similar to what we have implemented for small onshore producers, introducing a new threshold of $75 per barrel for SPT for small shallow water producers. Where feasible, we will also make suitable adjustments to the capital expenditure allowances for small shallow water producers.
“These measures will take effect on January 1, 2024 and will require amendments to the Petroleum Taxes Act, Chap. 75:04.”
Also note page 59, where the Minister states: “I am confident with the near-term outlook for oil production, which is expected to increase from the aggressive drilling programme of Heritage, our largest producer; new production by EOG and Trinity, recent discoveries by Touchstone; and the general fiscal incentives made available to onshore producers and shallow water marine areas in recent times.”
Thank you for pointing us to U Tube and the budget details just finished watching through. In fact the budget staement is still going on, but he has moved onto ther things.
The Finance Minister has just announced his intention to reform off-shore marine SPT in the same way that he did on-shore last year. If the onshore provisions are applied to off-shore marine, Trinity will pay no SPT on their off-shore production when the realised oil price is below $75. In the first half of this year alone that would have saved them $3.3 million in SPT. It’s excellent news.
Fair enough, the downside seems relatively limited with WTI where it is right now.
Well down on minimal volume. Lots of concerns but I will bank the divi and see how the flow test goes
PipeDragger
Agreed, I think they are further behind than they are admitting. Hardly a surprise. But I do not agree that 300 bopd would be a great result. 500 would, but not 300 - it would take them ages to get their money back at 300 bopd and declining.